Real Madrid must overcome Jose Mourinho’s Benfica to keep their Champions League dream alive after being paired with the Portuguese giants in the playoff round — two days after goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin‘s stoppage time winner sealed an epic 4-2 victory in Lisbon and denied Real a place in the top eight of the league phase.
Benfica’s incredible win brought the 2025-26 Champions League to life, but the playoff round promises more drama with heavyweight teams including Real, reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain and last season’s beaten finalists Inter Milan all facing tough ties to reach the round of 16.
So while the top eight league phase finishers can sit back and plot their path to the final in Budapest’s Puskás Aréna on May 30 ahead of the round of 16, those teams that finished between ninth and 24th in the league phase must now win a two-legged tie to keep their European campaign alive.
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With the Blue Path and Silver Path now decided for the playoffs following Friday’s draw in Nyon, Switzerland, who will make it through, and which major clubs could miss out?
First legs will be played on Feb. 17-18, and the second legs on Feb. 24-25
SILVER PATH
Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund
These two teams finished two places apart in the league phase, with Atalanta narrowly ahead of Dortmund in 15th position. Atalanta are dangerous, but inconsistent, with Raffaele Palladino’s side blowing a top eight finish by losing its final two games against Athletic Club and Union St.-Gilloise.
With uncertainty over the future of versatile forward/winger Ademola Lookman — the Nigeria midfielder is a January transfer target for Fenerbahce — Atalanta could be without one of their key attacking players when this tie comes around.
Dortmund also lost their last two league phase games, so while Niko Kovac‘s team will be narrow favorites to make it through, neither side looks capable of going beyond the round of 16.
WINNERS: Borussia Dortmund
Benfica vs. Real Madrid
After the stoppage-time drama in Estadio da Luz earlier this week, this immediate reunion between Benfica and Real is clearly the tie of the round, but there is so much more to this game than mere revenge for Real, who would have sealed a top eight spot with a draw in Lisbon.
Incredibly for two historic clubs with a long record of winning in European tournaments, Real and Benfica have met just four times in competitive action, but Benfica have a 3-1 head-to-head lead; Real must overcome their negative history to win this tie. And with Mourinho in charge of Benfica, Real will know that their former coach will be desperate to eliminate them at the Bernabeu in the second leg.
Real will also be without the suspended Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo for the first leg due to red cards against Benfica this week, so coach Alvaro Arbeloa has plenty to overcome against his old mentor Mourinho.
WINNERS: Real Madrid
AS Monaco vs. Paris Saint-Germain
On paper, PSG should be happy with their all-French clash against Monaco, especially after negotiating a similar Ligue 1 matchup with Brest at the same stage last season. Although Monaco are struggling in midtable in the French league right now, they claimed a 1-0 win against PSG last November thanks to a Takumi Minamino goal in Stade Louis II. Sebastien Pocognoli’s team will believe it has a chance of an upset.
PSG have been unable to replicate the form they displayed in winning the Champions League last season, but Luis Enrique’s side should still come through this tie. Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola are now back to fitness, and PSG have the advantage of the second leg at home. They should have too much for Monaco.
WINNERS: PSG
Galatasaray vs. Juventus
History favors two-time Champions League winners Juventus, but in the here and now, there is little to separate these two teams and it promises to be close. Galatasaray exploited home advantage in Istanbul to claim a 1-0 win against Liverpool in the league phase, and they will aim to build up a commanding lead ahead of the second leg in Turin.
The Turkish side boast a lot of veteran talent: will the goals of Victor Osimhen and experience of Ilkay Gündogan be enough to tilt the tie in Galatasaray’s favor, or can Luciano Spalletti inspire Juve into the round of 16? It will be tight, but Juventus are vulnerable so Galatasaray can pull off a shock and make it through.
WINNERS: Galatasaray
BLUE PATH
Club Brugge vs. Atlético Madrid
This is a tie between the Champions League overperformers (Brugge) and the side that has developed a habit for failing to exceed expectations (Atletico).
It’s been 10 years since Atleti played — and lost — their second final in three years against Real, and Diego Simeone’s side has been underwhelming for much of the last decade. Atleti will face Brugge knowing that the Belgian side is capable of inflicting more Champions League misery. Ivan Leko’s side is dangerous with pace on the break, with Greece midfielder Christos Tzolis likely to earn a big move on the back of an impressive season.
WINNERS: Club Brugge
FK Qarabag vs. Newcastle United
Qarabag are the first team from Azerbaijan to make it into the Champions League knockout stages and they did so with three wins in the league phase and a home draw with Chelsea. The first leg in Baku will be Qarabag’s best hope of making the tie a close one, especially with the extra travel involved for Newcastle, who have an increasingly congested domestic fixture list.
But Liverpool’s easy 6-0 win against Qarabag at Anfield on Matchday 8 exposed plenty of weaknesses for Newcastle to exploit, and manager Eddie Howe should be happy with the draw, especially with the alternative being a trickier tie against Monaco. This will probably be one of the most one-sided ties, but Newcastle need to avoid complacency in the first leg.
WINNERS: Newcastle United
2:09
Marcotti: Real Madrid have a lot of chaos in the middle
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Bodo/Glimt vs. Inter Milan
Norwegian side Bodo sealed its playoff spot with dramatic back-to-back wins against Manchester City and Atletico Madrid and Inter will hold no fears for Kjetil Knutsen’s team. However, it may be a different matter for Inter.
Will Cristian Chivu’s team really fancy a trip to the Arctic Circle in mid-February to face Bodo on their infamous artificial pitch — a venue that has already seen Lazio, Porto and Roma suffer humiliating defeats? Despite the jeopardy of the away leg, Inter will be heavy favorites to make it through against a side that is still over a month away from the start of its domestic season.
Inter have plenty of experience in their ranks, and the added safety net of having the second leg at the San Siro.
WINNERS: Inter Milan
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Olympiacos
These two teams met as recently as league phase Matchday 7 on Jan. 20, with Olympiacos cruising to a 2-0 win in Greece. With the first leg at the intimidating Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus, Olympiacos could build a commanding lead ahead of the return fixture in Germany if forwards Ayoub El Kaabi and Mehdi Taremi can maintain their form this season.
Leverkusen are a team in transition, but they should still win this tie over two legs. Olympiacos are a dangerous outsider, as shown during their 2024 UEFA Europa Conference League triumph, so this tie could go all the way to penalties.
WINNERS: Olympiacos
