As we move past the All-Star break and zero in on the July 31 Trade Deadline, all eyes are on the bubble teams that need to decide whether to buy or sell — and soon.
Every game from here until the Deadline matters that much more for teams still stuck in the middle, as they weigh whether a playoff push is realistic or if it’s time to look to the future.
Before the second half kicks off Friday, here’s a quick check-in on eight bubble teams and which way they’re trending coming out of the break.
Biggest needs: Starting pitcher, first baseman
The Red Sox went 3-7 in the immediate aftermath of the stunning Rafael Devers trade on June 15, falling to 40-43 and fueling speculation about a possible sale at the Trade Deadline, with pending free agents Alex Bregman (opt-out after 2025), Aroldis Chapman and Lucas Giolito among those mentioned as potential departures. Since then, though, Boston has flipped the narrative. The club entered the break having won 10 straight games and 13 of 15 — averaging more than seven runs per game during that span — to push its record to 53-45.
With Bregman and Masataka Yoshida back from the IL; Giolito, Ceddanne Rafaela and Trevor Story all surging after rough starts and MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospect Roman Anthony also starting to hit his stride, the Red Sox suddenly look as strong as they have all season. Boston now appears set to buy, with a chance to really put itself in position to be a strong contender in the AL if it addresses its two biggest needs.
Biggest need: Power bat, preferably on the left side of the infield
The team with baseball’s best record since May 25? It’s not the Dodgers. Or the Tigers. Or the Cubs. Or the Phillies. It’s the Brewers, who have gone 31-12 since then, including seven straight wins to cut their NL Central deficit to just one game heading into the break. Milwaukee has shown a willingness to make unconventional Deadline moves in the past — like trading Josh Hader in 2022 despite leading the division — but any chance of the club moving ace Freddy Peralta this summer has likely gone out the window. The Brewers may still trade from their rotation depth to address other needs, but it’s hard to believe they’d take the risk of demoralizing their players and fan base by trading their top starter when they are looking like a serious contender.
As buyers, the Brewers are likely to prioritize adding a bat — Andrew Vaughn has filled in admirably at first base since Rhys Hoskins went down with a sprained left left thumb, but the Crew is in need of more pop in its lineup. Milwaukee has the eighth-fewest home runs in the Majors, and the left side of its infield in particular has been a black hole. Only the Pirates have gotten a lower combined wRC+ from their shortstops and third basemen than the Brewers (67).
Biggest need: Power-hitting outfielder
After making the postseason in 2024, the Royals entered this year’s All-Star break with a 47-50 record, leading some to wonder whether the club might make starter Seth Lugo available. Lugo, who finished second in the AL Cy Young Award race last year and owns a 2.90 ERA over 50 starts during his Royals tenure, is expected to decline his 2026 player option ($15 million) at the end of the season to become a free agent.
However, it appears the Royals view themselves as buyers, as evidenced by their deal for veteran second baseman Adam Frazier on Wednesday. Kansas City has played better of late, going 8-4 since the calendar flipped to July. But if the club is going to seriously challenge for a playoff spot, it needs to do something about its outfield production. Collectively, Royals outfielders have recorded 14 home runs and a 50 wRC+ in 2025, both of which are MLB lows.
Biggest needs: First baseman/designated hitter, closer
Coming off a World Series title in 2023, Texas spent much of last season below .500, but the Rangers largely opted to stand pat at the Deadline in hopes of making another championship push. Although that strategy didn’t work out, it doesn’t seem like general manager Chris Young is going to let that experience influence how he operates in 2025. MLB Network insider Jon Heyman has heard from sources that the Rangers are a “very unlikely seller” despite their 48-49 record at the break. And with the way Texas has played lately, the team may very well end up buying.
The Rangers had one of the worst offenses in baseball during their 29-35 start, averaging 3.31 runs per game, but their lineup has started to play closer to its talent level in recent weeks. Since June 7, the Rangers have notched the second-highest scoring average (5.48 runs per game) in MLB, sparking a 19-14 stretch. If Texas does shift toward buying mode, the club could look to add a first baseman/DH type, considering the disappointing campaigns offseason additions Jake Burger (.659 OPS) and Joc Pederson (.507 OPS, likely out until August with a fractured hand) are having. The Rangers could also use a reliever with closing experience, considering they have blown 17 saves (tied for fourth most) while using a closer committee in 2025.
That reality, combined with the state of the trade market, could push Arizona further toward selling. In a market short on impact players, the D-backs could offer four of the Deadline’s biggest prizes in Suárez, Kelly, Gallen and Naylor. All four are set to hit free agency, giving Arizona every incentive to listen on deals.
This version of the Twins was built to contend behind players like Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Pablo López and Ryan, but the promise of that core has been undercut by persistent injuries. Meanwhile, a tight payroll and ownership uncertainty have left the front office with few ways to make meaningful upgrades. Sitting at 47-49 overall with a 13-22 record in its past 35 games, it might be the right time for the franchise to recalibrate.
Buxton has a full no-trade clause through 2026 and said earlier this week that he plans to be “a Minnesota Twin for life,” so it would be a surprise to see him dealt. Correa is also unlikely to move, given he owns a 90 OPS+ this season and is owed $92 million across 2026-28. And López is on the IL with a right shoulder strain. But even if all those players stay put, Minnesota still has a chance to fetch a significant haul of young talent by shopping Ryan, Duran and Jax, each of whom is controllable through 2028 and would be among the most sought-after arms on the market.
After seven straight postseason appearances, including six division titles, the Braves entered this season as one of the NL’s leading World Series championship contenders. However, this season has been a slog from the outset for Atlanta. The Braves did manage to recover from an 0-7 start and briefly got over the .500 mark in May, but even with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider returning from the IL to give their roster a shot in the arm, they weren’t able to sustain the positive momentum.
At 42-53, the Braves are a likely seller, though it remains to be seen just how much selling they’ll actually do. The club is reportedly averse to dealing anyone who is controllable beyond 2025, including injured ace Chris Sale and his $18 million club option for ’26. Pending free agents Ozuna, Iglesias and Rafael Montero are the most likely to go, though it’s possible the Braves could take advantage of the demand for relief pitching by making Johnson and Bummer available. (Each pitcher can be retained through 2026.) The Braves also have a decision to make regarding Albies’ future. He’s in the midst of his worst season (71 OPS+), but given his age, track record and affordable club options ($7 million each in 2026-27), the 28-year-old could draw trade interest as a rebound candidate if the Braves decide they are moving on from him.
The first year of the post-Shohei Ohtani era couldn’t have gone much worse for the Halos. They’ve been much more respectable in 2025, staying around .500, developing some young hitters and having success with their big free-agent signing, Yusei Kikuchi. However, with a 4.63 team ERA and -62 run differential, they likely don’t have the legs to stick around in the AL Wild Card race for the long haul.
It would make sense for the Angels to shop pending free agents Jansen, Moncada, Anderson and Hendricks. Ward, who is eligible for free agency after 2026, is another candidate to move. He has hit 21 homers this season. Detmers is controllable through 2028, but the Angels could shop the former starter as an impact arm in the reliever market after he finished up the first half with a 1.24 ERA and a 32.8% strikeout rate in his final 28 appearances.
