Date: Tuesday, Dec 16
Tip Time: 7:00 PM
Game Location: Clemson, SC – Littlejohn Coliseum
TV: ESPN2
Gauging Clemson So Far
I predicted Clemson to finish 22-8 (12-6) and make the NCAA tournament. With the loss to BYU, Clemson is now one game behind my projected pace. Thankfully it is just one game, because on Saturday it was near catastrophe against Mercer. The Mercer Bears are a decent offensive squad that ranked 159th overall in KenPom, but the Tigers have no business trailing them by six points at home.
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Coach Brownell is not one to make excuses, but he acknowledged it was bad scheduling to have this game sandwiched between the Madison Square Garden game vs. BYU and the U of SC game right in the middle of final exams. He said his team looked tired and heavy-legged. A loss to Mercer would have put the Tigers well-outside the bubble and in a major hole entering the last two games of non-conference play before the 18-game ACC schedule begins.
Clemson has not had complete games lately as they put forth one fantastic half and one dreadful half. Against Alabama, the Tigers were down 15 at halftime and came all the way back to briefly hold a lead before losing. The reverse happened against BYU where Clemson took at 22-point lead before blowing it, then briefly tying the game before the Cougars made the game-winner. Even against Alabama A&M, the Tigers won by 36, but only outscored them by 5-points in the second half.
If Clemson puts together a complete game, they will beat South Carolina. If not, they’ll be in danger of loss that could age very poorly as the Gamecocks get into SEC play. Non-conference games always get weighed a little more heavily when the committee gets together. Clemson must finish with wins over South Carolina and Cincinnati for their non-conference slate to be neutral to positive on the resume.
What Threats South Carolina Presents
The better team often doesn’t win this rivalry game. In December of 2016, Jaron Blossomgame scored 15 as the Tigers won in Columbia. The Tigers didn’t make the tournament that year, but the Gamecocks made a Final Four run. In November of 2022, Clemson lost in Columbia and the Cocks ended up ranked 221st in KenPom. That loss was a huge reason the 23-win Tigers were left out of the tournament.
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This year, Clemson looks like the better team and better program, but they’re only 2-3 against teams ranked in the KenPom top 150. This is an absolute must-win for Clemson, and South Carolina is just good enough to make that difficult.
As usual, South Carolina brings a tough grinding defense to Clemson. They don’t force turnovers, get steals, or block shots at a high-rate, but they play a low-tempo game and make you earn it. They’re strong on the defensive glass ranking 75th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and their defensive efficiency ranks 81st, not bad considering the lack of forced turnovers. What they do is make you take shots you don’t love. They are forcing the 5th worst 3P% in the nation at just 25.8%. Perhaps that is luck and schedule-based, but out-of-rhythm 3-pointers late in the shot clock will drown a Clemson offense that already lacks consistent shooters.
The Tigers are 215th nationally in 3P% at just 32.4%. This is, in my view, the weakness of the team. Against BYU, they had several opportunities to ice the game or break the Cougars momentum but big misses on wide open, in-rhythm 3-points allowed the Cougars to keep coming and keep gaining steam.
Jestin Porter is Clemson’s most dangerous shooter from distance. He has made 24 3-pointers, shooting at a 36.9% clip. Dillon Hunter has never been a great shooter but seems to have taken a massive step forward going 14-31 (45.1%) so far this season. Beyond those two, the Tigers don’t have a ton of great options. Jake Wahlin is the only other Tiger shooting above 33.3% from 3 and the team overall ranks 215th in 3P%. The freshmen guards, who have been great at attacking the basket, have been particularly bad shooting the 3-ball. Ace Buckner is just 3-26 (11.5%) and Zac Foster is 13-48 (27.1%).
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The Tigers’ formula all year will start with playing in-side out basketball. That means Godfrey, Welling, and Davidson in the paint are Plan A. First, we see if the Gamecocks can stop them in the post. If they can, then you dish it to Porter, Hunter, and Wahlin to knock down open shots or work it those freshmen guards to attack and finish at the rim.
Offensively, the Gamecocks are a lot less scary. They are even worse than Clemson from 3 shooting an absolutely dreadful 31.1% and they shoot more 3-pointers than Clemson with nearly half their shots (48.2%) coming from behind the arc.
Meechie Johnson is their heavily featured offensive star. Coming out of Cleveland, Ohio, he spent his first two years at Ohio State. Then he transferred and spent two years at South Carolina before going back to Ohio State for a year. Now, he is back in Columbia with somehow one more year of eligibility remaining. The 6-foot-2 super senior can make the 3 (37.5%) and attack the basket. He draws fouls and then makes 71.1% of his FT attempts.
In their three games (all losses) against high-level competition, Johnson went for 18 (vs. VT), 15 (vs. Northwestern), and 24 (vs. Butler). He memorably dribbled the ball until the clock had all but expired in their final possession against VT. That cost them a chance at a game-winning basket in a contest they’d eventually lose in overtime. Still, he is their best offensive threat.
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Both teams are content play a slow, low-possession game. This one looks like a grinder and a rock fight and that’s the kind of game that can be fun for old school basketball fans like myself. The Gamecocks need to force Clemson out of the paint and hope Porter doesn’t get hot. If that happens, and Meechie finds his rhythm, an upset wouldn’t be crazy. This game often runs counter to which team is better, but it could determine which side of the bubble these teams are on in March.
Prediction
KenPom: Clemson – 76 (83% chance to win)
South Carolina – 65
Kantor: Clemson – 75
South Carolina – 70
This one ends with the home crowd chanting “Just Like Football!”
