We’ve entered the final third of the college football regular season, the time when market efficiency collides with motivation, health and desperation. By late October, teams’ true identities are mostly formed, but oddsmakers still have to weigh everything from quarterback play to locker room morale. That’s where the edges live: reading between the box scores and fading the noise of recent results.
Week 9 offers exactly that: A handful of lines that look off at first glance but make sense only once you dig deeper. The value lies in anticipating where perception will outpace reality.
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Let’s get into the early bets worth grabbing now before the lines move.
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM.)
No. 22 Texas (-6.5, 46.5) at Mississippi State
Mississippi State entered 2024 with a conference win total of just 1.5, as expectations were at rock bottom. Yet it’s still jarring to see the Bulldogs catching nearly a touchdown at home against a Texas program that was supposed to be the best team in the SEC this year.
Texas’ offense has sputtered badly under Arch Manning and Steve Sarkisian, managing just 170 total yards in last week’s overtime win against Kentucky. The explosive passing game that defined Sark’s best teams simply hasn’t clicked, and the market is punishing the Longhorns for it.
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But this line feels like an overcorrection. Mississippi State has fought hard in SEC play, but it’s still winless in the conference and largely living off moral victories. Defensively, the Bulldogs have been gashed by tempo and speed – a dangerous recipe against Sarkisian, who remains one of the most creative offensive minds in the sport.
Under a touchdown, this is a classic “buy low” spot on Texas to stabilize offensively and handle business against a team that has already hit its ceiling.
Bet: Texas -6.5 (-115)
Colorado at Utah (-13.5, 50.5)
At first glance, the transitive property might make this line look inflated. Both Colorado and Utah lost to BYU 24-21. Both beat Wyoming comfortably. So why is Utah laying more than two touchdowns in this game? It’s because the box scores tell the real story.
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Colorado mustered just 290 total yards in its loss to BYU, while Utah racked up 470 – their “true score” probably closer to 35 points if not for red-zone miscues. The Utes are the far more complete team on both sides of the ball, and the extra prep time after a bye only strengthens that edge.
Colorado’s offense remains too dependent on explosive plays and has struggled to sustain drives against physical fronts. Utah’s defense is built to erase that kind of volatility. Coming off a confidence-building win over Iowa State, Utah’s talent gap – particularly in the trenches – should show early and often.
Bet: Utah -14.5 (-110)
Louisiana at Troy (-9.5, 50.5)
At first glance, Troy looks like it’s rolling – a 37–14 win over ULM last week and a defense that continues to frustrate opposing QBs. However, again the box score tells a different story. That game was 17-14 late in the third before a two-minute avalanche of turnovers flipped the entire script.
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The market seems to be pricing Troy as if that late explosion was sustainable. It wasn’t. Louisiana Monroe’s desperation led to hurried possessions and short fields that ballooned the final margin.
Louisiana Lafayette, meanwhile, is healthier and trending upward after a rough injury stretch early in the year. They have the physicality to match Troy in the trenches and enough offensive structure to keep this within one score. Selling high on the Trojans feels right in a matchup that profiles closer to a grind than a blowout.
Bet: Louisiana +9.5 (-110)
Week 8 betting recap
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Oregon -17 vs. Rutgers (win): Dante Moore threw for 290 yards and four TDs as Oregon rolled 56–10. Never in doubt.
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Penn State vs. Iowa over 37.5 (win): Cleared easily with 37 points through three quarters.
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Ole Miss +7 vs. Georgia (loss): Painful. Rebels led 35-26 before surrendering 17 unanswered in the fourth.
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UNLV vs. Boise State Under 63.5 (loss): The two teams scored 73 total points through three quarters. No shot.
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Hawaii vs. Colorado State Under 53.5 (win): Hawaii’s defense dominated: 8 TFLs, 6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles.
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Texas Tech vs. Arizona State +7.5 (preseason hedge) and Over 52 (win and loss): ASU won outright, but total landed at 48.
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Overall Week 8 record: 4-3 (2-1 on early article plays)
