In the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, Penn State hosted SMU in a game between two teams that expected to be back in the mix even after the Nittany Lions won comfortably. Less than a year later, and all both have done this season is contributed to the ruination of the Week 10 college football slate.
Admittedly, that sounds dramatic, but Penn State-Ohio State was supposed to be a top-five matchup and Saturday’s crown jewel, and now the Nittany Lions bring a backup quarterback and an interim head coach into Columbus as three-touchdown underdogs. Meanwhile, SMU was a candidate for the pomp-and-circumstance of a certain pregame show ahead of this week’s tilt with Miami, but the Mustangs dropped an ugly game at Wake Forest, and now ‘Canes-‘Stangs is merely a matchup of two of the seven ACC teams that have one loss or fewer.
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While both games might become interesting, since you never know on any given college football Saturday, last week’s results moved a few more teams back into the fold, despite minimal meaningful shakeups.
Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Ole Miss Rebels applauds with the band after beating the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025, in Norman. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
(Brian Bahr via Getty Images)
Movers
One week after Ole Miss couldn’t last a full 60 minutes in Athens, it outlasted Oklahoma in Norman for Lane Kiffin’s biggest win during his tenure in Oxford. All amid rumors the much-traveled coach has his eye on Florida, his dream job. With a road Egg Bowl being the toughest game left on the one-loss Rebels’ schedule, Ole Miss has moved from “possible fraud” after a loss at Georgia to -250 to make the College Football Playoff.
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Elsewhere in the perpetual movement center of the SEC, Vanderbilt won as a home favorite of a field goal for the second straight week. This time, knocking off Missouri in a virtual knock-out game. Only Georgia Tech (-110) has closer to 50/50 odds to make the playoff than the Commodores (+145).
In the American Conference, Memphis starting quarterback Brendon Lewis was questionable all week, and South Florida drifted up to -6.5 on the road. Even when it became clear Lewis was OK to play, a line that would have otherwise been a pick ’em at worst was brought down to USF -4. The Bulls looked like the right side regardless, up 31-17 to start the fourth quarter. But the Tigers came back to win, moving back into contention for both the AAC and the Group of Five’s CFP nominee. If both teams win out, we should get a heavyweight tilt in the AAC title game.
The big mover in the Heisman Trophy market is Marcel Reed, who had already moved to +700 after Texas A&M ran Brian Kelly out of Baton Rouge and is now +550. The easier the Aggies’ path gets to an undefeated regular season, the better the odds that Reed gets the nod over the other favorites the market hasn’t fully committed to.
Shakers
While we found a winner in the MAC’s showdown game of the week with Miami-Ohio pulling away from Western Michigan, the biggest upset on a weekend was 10.5-point underdog Akron taking out the other undefeated MAC team, Buffalo. One week away from college football’s November staple — weeknight MAC-tion — and the conference has seven teams with either one or two conference losses.
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BYU won again as a short underdog, making it back-to-back 8-0 starts to sit atop the Big 12 standings. Before we write in the Cougars in pen for Arlington, Texas, we’ll remember they started last season 9-0 before losing twice and missing out. That makes Week 11’s trip to Texas Tech a big one.
Betting the big games for Week 10
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (-1.5, 44.5)
For the third straight game, a punt return was the difference between possibly winning and losing for the Longhorns. Which is a sad state of affairs for a team with the much-ballyhooed Arch Manning and a defense among the best in the country. However, special teams are a part of the game and exemplify an element of depth in Texas’ roster that most teams don’t have.
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Vanderbilt’s stars can play with anyone, but they were beneficiaries of a season-ending injury to Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula, and going on the road for what should be another slugfest is a tricky spot for Diego Pavia and Co.
While the Longhorns’ recent escapes indicate they might be overrated, that’s something that may be better saved to bet on come playoff time. After going to Florida, the Cotton Bowl, Lexington and Starkville, Texas is playing just its fourth home game all season this week — and first one in conference.
That run of tough situations has brought the Longhorns’ rating down to a point where just last week this point spread might have been a full touchdown, and before the season Texas would have been a three-touchdown favorite here. It’s the first bet I’ve made this week, as getting the Longhorns under a field goal in Austin is a must-wager because of the differing perceptions of each team.
Pick: Texas -1.5
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Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (-7.5, 50.5)
Admittedly, we’re desperate for “big” games this week, and the only thing that makes this one are the vibes for something that was once called “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.”
From a betting standpoint, it’s interesting that a game with a summer lookahead line of Georgia -8.5 has actually moved toward the Gators — whose season’s gone so badly they just fired head coach Billy Napier.
While +8.5 seemed like too many back in August, as we had it projected closer to +6, the market on this game makes little sense. The one thing Georgia’s offense has struggled with this season is the deep-passing game, but the Gators have been starting a handful of freshmen in their secondary, which almost lost them the Mississippi State game. Meanwhile, quarterback DJ Lagway’s shown no signs of being able to beat the Bulldogs’ defense, which struggled against much better units at Tennessee and against Ole Miss.
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With both teams coming off a bye, Kirby Smart’s team should be far more ready to play this rivalry game than Florida, winning it easily for the fifth consecutive year.
Pick: Georgia -7.5
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (-3, 56.5)
Oklahoma’s season started off so fun, and then QB John Mateer hurt his hand, the Sooners lost twice, and they now have the toughest remaining schedule in the country. It’s entirely possible they’re at an emotional low and can’t be competitive in Knoxville on Saturday. However, all of this, along with the Volunteers hanging 56 points on Kentucky, is built into a point spread that was trending toward a pick ’em before this past Saturday’s results.
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While Ole Miss was the right side of the point spread in Norman, the net success rate metrics are in line with the 50/50 win probability estimation for the game, both when Oklahoma took the lead before the end of the third quarter or when Oklahoma WR Isaiah Sategna fumbled a punt return down five in the fourth.
Lost in Tennessee lighting up Lexington is that they allowed 476 yards to the Wildcats, so while Oklahoma’s second loss feels like a death blow, it should be able to get back to the offensive output it had grown accustomed to before Mateer’s injury — especially after its previously struggling running game went for 4.8 yards per carry against Ole Miss. A win in Knoxville would keep hope alive before OU’s second bye and a crucial game at Alabama that could save the season.
Pick: Oklahoma +3.5
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (-7.5, 56.5)
If you’re unfamiliar with the work of Byrd Ficklin, you’re not flying alone.
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Utah’s freshman quarterback got his first start last week, replacing banged-up incumbent Devon Dampier. Dampier was suited up in case of emergency, but the Utes took a tidy 43-0 halftime lead over Colorado, and there was no cause for alarm, as much of the Utes’ 400-plus rushing yards came early. It’s the second blowout home win for the Utes, this time getting it done with their backup quarterback after crushing Arizona State and its backup QB.
Like BYU, Cincinnati surprisingly sits atop the Big 12 with wins over Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor at the top of its resume. Starting in a season-opening loss to Nebraska, the Bearcats have shown they can run the football, eventually racking up 215, 260 and 265 rushing yards in those three conference wins. If Cincinnati can do that in Salt Lake City, it’ll really have something to drink- to in Over-The-Rhine, but we’ll bet against it.
While the Bearcats’ offensive success rate is best in the conference, Utah is right behind them, and only Oklahoma State, Baylor and Colorado have a worse defensive success-rate allowed than Cincinnati, which suggests that, regardless of who’s running the offense, Utah should be capable of further complicating things at the top of the Big 12 with another decisive home win.
Pick: Utah -7.5
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, , at .
