The 2025-26 college football season is here, and after the appetizer of only five games in Week 0 — highlighted by a 24-21 Iowa State win as a 3-point underdog against Kansas State, played in Dublin, Ireland — the main entree of Week 1 is here.
The games are highlighted by No. 1 Texas traveling to No. 3 Ohio State as a 1.5-point underdog, but for this article we’re more interested in futures wagers that you should get down on before this weekend. Don’t worry, we’ll have a best bets file on Thursday.
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Two of our college football handicappers — Matt Russell and Corbie Craig — are here to provide you with their favorite futures bets in four different categories, including Heisman value bets and season win totals.
[2025 college football betting guide: Everything you need to know to place your bets]
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Heisman value bets
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (35-1)
Craig: Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference championship, but its independent schedule – and tough early slate – could help Carr. The Irish face two major early tests in a Week 1 showdown vs. Miami and a Week 3 contest against a top-10 Texas A&M team. Both games offer national exposure and early opportunities to make a statement. If Carr hits the ground running, he’ll build a strong resume, but if the Irish do stumble, head coach Marcus Freeman may be forced to open up the offense to keep playoff hopes alive, given they lack a conference title game to bolster their case. The rest of the schedule softens significantly, with Notre Dame projected as a two-touchdown favorite in nearly every remaining game.
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Alabama WR Ryan Williams (35-1)
Russell: In a new era where doing “cool stuff” acts as a tiebreaker for voters (who picked Jayden Daniels and Travis Hunter over Michael Penix Jr. and Ashton Jeanty), few skill-position players are more capable of “cool” than Williams. Alabama’s picked Ty Simpson to quarterback an offense that created over 5,000 passing yards for Washington two seasons ago. Williams caught 30.4% of the Tide’s receiving yards during his freshman season. If the numbers look more like 33% of 4,500, Williams might combine big numbers with eye-catching highlights at a rate equal to Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith, but at three times the payout.
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Season win totals wagers
Sam Houston State Under 4.5 wins (-102)
Craig: As kickoff approaches, the forecast for Sam Houston State grows increasingly bleak. The Bearkats lost virtually their entire defense from a year ago, leaving little optimism they’ll slow down many opposing offenses. But the problems don’t end there. New head coach Phil Longo is expected to bring more pressure and implement a variation of the Air Raid. On paper, that sounds like a spark. In reality, this is a program that ranked 119th nationally in pass attempts per game last season — and it’s not a major Power Four school with the recruiting pull to plug talent into a high-octane system overnight. The quarterback battle has stretched deep into camp, but it feels less like healthy competition and more like a sign that no one has separated. That’s usually not the mark of a roster with multiple capable options at QB, but of one still searching for an answer under center.
Troy Under 5.5 wins (-105)
Russell: Given the position they’re in, a Group of Five football program has to repeatedly strike gold in its head coaching hires every few years. The better they do, the sooner they have to hire a new one, because a bigger school will hire their star coach. At the end of 2023, Tulane hired Jon Sumrall away from Troy, and the Trojans were tasked with hitting another hiring home run. They settled on Gerad Parker, whose resume suggested a bit of a reach. Sure enough, Troy goes from the peak of the Sun Belt to 4-8 in Parker’s first year. So, we’ll bet the Trojans didn’t find another gem, and combined with a Sun Belt conference full of good coaches, Troy doesn’t qualify for bowl eligibility.
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Under 3.5 Big 10 Teams to make CFP (-175)
Craig: The Big Ten is as deep as ever, but the question is whether the league can push a fourth team into the playoff. Michigan sits with the fourth-best odds to win the conference, yet some sportsbooks have the Wolverines at -290 to miss the playoff field. That disconnect makes BetMGM’s number worth a serious look.
Alabama to win College Football Playoff (10-1)
Russell: As of now, my cutoff is seven schools — the top seven on the oddsboard. Where the national title race becomes interesting is that there’s not much difference between those teams. So, why not back the one with the longest odds of the group? That’s Alabama.
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After a rocky first season for Kalen DeBoer, he’s got his offensive coordinator and a quarterback that should suit what they do. By ranking the Crimson Tide 10th, the CFP committee showed they were open to the idea of a three-loss Alabama making the playoff last year (only to have to include Clemson, Arizona State and Boise State). So, given Bama’s tough slate, they should be on the top of the committee’s wish list even with three losses. As we know from seeing Ohio State run through the playoff last season, once you’re in, the cream will likely rise to the top.
Conference bets
Stanford to have fewest conference wins (+250)
Craig: Stanford opened as a 4-point favorite in its Week 0 matchup against Hawaii, before closing as a 2-point underdog. The Cardinal ended up losing that game on Saturday, 23-20. A non-conference game shouldn’t define this wager, but the line movement tells you everything about where sharp bettors stand on Stanford’s outlook — and it isn’t pretty.
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Utah to win Big 12 (+550)
Russell: Last season’s quarterbacking catastrophe in Salt Lake City clearly didn’t sit well in Utah, so it went out and got an electric athlete in Devon Dampier. Even if Dampier doesn’t have to throw the ball — behind what’s expected to be another outstanding offensive line for Kyle Whittingham — the Utes may be able to grind out home wins against the top teams in the Big 12 (Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State), giving them a leg up on making the conference title game. At which point, they’re rating in the market should be bumped back to the point where they were as favorites going into 2024.
