College Football Playoff bubble watch for Week 12

We are up to our third edition of our College Football Playoff bubble watch. Some teams have improved their positions since we’ve started, and some have fallen off the bubble watch entirely. We have some huge games this weekend that could give some serious bubble clarity–or, if we see upsets, could muddy the bubble picture further (like Texas vs Georgia and Alabama vs Oklahoma)

Our bubble watch mentions 22 teams this week. Five of the teams on this list will earn auto-bids. (Technically someone from outside this list can earn an auto-bid, but the odds are infinitesimal at this point.) That leaves 17 potential teams for seven at-large spots–though as we’ll see, some of these teams need a lot of help to get on the right side of the bubble.

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Big Ten teams and the College Football Playoff

Unlike our first bubble watch, I’m saving this category for just Ohio State and Indiana. The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are about to earn a “lock” status. 10-2 is good enough for either team––and frankly, there aren’t enough potential losses on the schedule for either of them. Indiana is probably a lock already, but I’ll wait until win number 11 this week (assuming it happens). Ohio State is also likely a lock with a win this week, though I’ll probably wait for the Buckeyes to reach 11 wins as well.

Oregon should get in the Playoff at 10-2, but the 10-2 Playoff bubble suddenly looks tight if there’s a glut of 10-2 SEC teams. The Ducks knocked Iowa out of the at-large picture this past week, though the selection committee still respects the Hawkeyes. Assuming USC gets by Iowa this week, it sets up a showdown next week with Oregon, where the winner likely earns a Playoff bid and the loser either sweats out the bubble (Oregon) or starts looking at other bowl games (USC).

Michigan is probably a lock if it gets to 10-2. Even if that means a Big Ten Championship Game berth and a 10-3 finish, three solid losses and a win over Ohio State is a Playoff-worth resume. So why do I say a near-lock and not an actual lock? Well, the head-to-head loss to USC is a big problem, even if USC’s resume is slightly weaker overall (worse second loss, not as strong wins). Of course, if both USC and Michigan are 10-2, that means that Oregon is 10-2 (or worse) as well, so both of these teams might get in anyway.

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ACC teams and the College Football Playoff

This week was an absolute disaster for the ACC. Virginia and Louisville fell to the wrong side of the bubble. 10-2 is probably not good enough for either of them unless we see some chaos in the Big Ten and SEC.

If Georgia Tech can go 11-1, it’s getting in the Playoff no mater what happens in the ACC Championship Game. 10-2 with a close loss to Georgia and things suddenly look dicey. If that loss comes elsewhere the Yellow Jackets probably need to win the ACC to get in.

The committee was much nicer to Miami this week than last week, so the Hurricanes are probably in pretty good stead at 10-2 (especially if they miss the ACC Championship Game). But they’ll be sweating at least a little bit.

SMU is the rare three-loss team in the bubble watch, but a 9-3 SMU team would be tough to ignore. The Mustangs have no bad losses (no great ones), picked up a win over Miami, and still have to face Louisville.

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Pitt does have a bad loss, which is why I don’t have them in the “win out and probably in” category. The rivalry loss to West Virginia really hurts. But the Panthers close the regular season against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami. A 10-2 Pitt team would have a stronger collection of wins than any other bubble team.

Big 12 teams and the College Football Playoff

BYU has a pretty weak resume, but that win over Utah is constantly improving. Even with the drop in the rankings, the Cougars should be okay for the Playoff if they win out–especially considering games remaining against TCU and Cincinnati. Either (or both) of these teams are probably locks at 11-2, so getting to the Big 12 Championship Game at 11-1 will be enough.

Cincinnati snuck back into the committee rankings this week, and a game remains against BYU to make a good impression. Cincinnati’s biggest problem is that it controls its own destiny in the Big 12, so a 10-2 season means a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. 10-2 is already a tough spot for this resume. but 10-3 if it loses the conference championship game? That looks rough.

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The committee really likes Utah, though it’s not so obvious why. Regardless, the Utes don’t have another chance at earning a quality win, so even winning out and going 10-2 doesn’t put them in great position.

SEC teams and the College Football Playoff

Texas A&M is one win away from the Playoff––and the Aggies still have a game against FCS Samford on the schedule. Most of these one-loss teams can possibly get in the Playoff with one more loss, but it’s too soon to say who or with confidence. Ole Miss has almost lost a lot of games, but the most dangerous opponents are behind the Rebels.

Texas is the only two-loss team in this bubble watch that I’m saying is a near-lock if it wins out. Two of the final three games are against Georgia and Texas A&M. Add that to the Oklahoma win and a 10-2 resume with that schedule is in the Playoff, easy.

Both of these teams have very strong potential 10-2 resumes. Oklahoma has that win over Michigan plus a game against Alabama left on the schedule. Vanderbilt’s resume is pretty weak once you really look at it, and will probably get weaker as the season goes on. Still, with the committee putting the Commodores at No. 14 this week, it’s hard to think 10-2 won’t be enough for them.

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Others when it comes to the College Football Playoff

We aren’t going to see a sixth conference champion get in or a team from outside the Power 4, so we can stop worrying about those teams when it comes to the bubble.

Of course, we can’t forget Notre Dame (which we accidentally did in our first bubble watch). If the Irish go 10-2 they have a real shot at the Playoff.

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: College Football Playoff bubble watch for Week 12