Colts’ Jonathan Taylor vs. Falcons’ Bijan Robinson in RB duel

When Atlanta Falcons star running back Bijan Robinson visited Berlin’s Olympic Stadium in May on a promotional tour for the NFL, he was captivated by the history of a venue that featured Jesse Owens in the 1936 Games. More sporting history, on a much smaller scale, will be on tap Sunday.

That’s when the Indianapolis Colts (7-2) will face the Falcons (3-5) in the first regular-season NFL game in the stadium’s history (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network).

“I got to see it beforehand, and [Germany] is a great place, and obviously we’re trying to go down there and handle business,” Robinson said Thursday. “But I think this will be good for all the guys and myself just to see new things there and continue to learn about countries in Europe and how somewhere new, you can find a liking to it and enjoy it.

“But for us, we’re just ready to go ball out and go have fun.”

It will be the Colts’ initial game after Tuesday’s blockbuster trade with the New York Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. Indianapolis is the top seed in the AFC with the most explosive offense (32.2 points per game) in the NFL, and its odds of winning the Super Bowl improved from 12-1 to 11-1 after the trade, according to ESPN BET.

The matchup will feature two of the best running backs in the league in the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL with 14 total touchdowns from scrimmage, and Robinson, who averages 132.3 scrimmage yards, which is the second most in the NFL behind the 49ers Christian McCaffrey (135.8). Taylor is the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, according to ESPN BET, while Robinson has the sixth-shortest odds.

Each is a huge part of his team’s offense, to the point where it’s fair to ask if the Falcons rely too heavily on Robinson. He accounts for 38% of Atlanta’s total yardage. Defenses have been gearing up to stop Robinson, who has cooled off the past two weeks, averaging just 72 scrimmage yards after averaging 152 through the first six games.

Taylor also is coming off his lowest output as he gained 45 yards rushing and 12 receiving in a 27-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Many are looking at Sunday’s game to determine whether that loss was an anomaly or did it expose a weakness in the Colts’ attack.

There’s a strong mutual respect between the running backs, who last faced each other on Dec. 24, 2023, when Robinson, a rookie at the time, rushed for 72 yards and caught seven passes for 50 yards in a 29-10 win. Taylor gained 43 yards and scored a TD in the game.

As far as this game is concerned, the Colts are a 6.5-point favorite, according to ESPN BET.

ESPN Colts reporter Stephen Holder and Falcons reporter Marc Raimondi look at the matchup of Taylor vs. Robinson and what’s at stake.

Too much reliance on one player?

Raimondi: Robinson is a fan of Marvel and DC comic book characters. He has a collection of gold earrings with every member of the Avengers. Recently, Robinson has worn Spider-Man and Iron Man earrings on practice and game days.

It’s easy to forget sometimes that Robinson himself doesn’t have any superpowers. After notching 238 yards from scrimmage against the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, he has just 236 yards from scrimmage combined over the past three weeks.

Largely, that has not been Robinson’s fault. The Falcons have found themselves behind early, changing their offensive game plan. Defenses have been keying on Atlanta’s rushing game specifically, loading up the box. And the Falcons’ banged-up offensive line has not been good enough with the second-worst run block rate in the league (68%) heading into Week 10.

“I think when we’re executing, he can have the space to make his plays, and he makes those plays,” three-time Pro Bowl right guard Chris Lindstrom said. “But then when we’re not executing, he’s not Superman.”

As Robinson goes, so go the Falcons. They are 3-0 in games in which he has rushed for 75 yards or more. In games when he does not hit that mark, the Falcons are 0-5. Atlanta has yet to figure out a Plan B if Robinson doesn’t have an incredible performance.

Robinson has become a true all-purpose back this season. In fact, he’s the team’s second-leading receiver (463 yards receiving on 41 catches) after Drake London (587-47). Robinson is already just 24 yards short of his career high in receiving yards. He is second in the league among running backs in receiving yards, behind Christian McCaffrey (626), who Robinson worked out with during the offseason. Robinson and McCaffrey are tied for the league lead in yards per route (2.4), a key advanced receiving metric.

“Everything about Bijan is an art form,” Falcons coach Raheem Morris said. “He’s the hardest person on the team to talk about just because he’s an Atlanta Falcon, he’s everything about that and his ability to move, his ability to take care of his body, his ability to train, his ability to motivate, his unselfishness, humility — all of those things — his ability to give back in our community. He’s such a great player, such a great human.”

Holder: Among the realities that make the Colts — and Taylor — so difficult to defend is their balance and unpredictability. Case in point: Indianapolis has the third-highest rate of passes on first downs, behind only the Cincinnati Bengals and Jets. The Colts use designed pass plays on 57.9% of their first-down snaps, above the league average of 51.1%. That makes their play selection difficult to anticipate, making Taylor even more dangerous.

Additionally, one might believe that having a back such as Taylor would make the Colts likely to run the ball early to, as the cliche goes, “establish the run.” Coach Shane Steichen doesn’t adhere to this belief at all. In fact, their formula has been the opposite. The Colts have come out firing early in games and have been particularly pass-heavy in their scripted plays on their opening possessions.

This has led to a phenomenon where Taylor has proved more dangerous late in games, when defenses are trying to adjust against the Colts’ productive passing game. The numbers are striking: Taylor has averaged 4.5 yards per carry in first halves and 7.1 in second halves. Eight of his rushing touchdowns have come in second halves, versus just four in first halves.

Taylor’s 525 yards in second halves alone would represent the NFL’s 15th-best rushing total. And given his size (5-foot-10, 226 pounds), speed and impressive conditioning, tired opponents have proved no match for Taylor late in games.

“Anytime he can have the ball in his hands to end the game, it’s big,” Steichen said.

Opposing defenders would likely agree, for different reasons.

“It is definitely defeating as a defense when you’ve got a guy running his tail off all game and he only gets better as the game goes on when you’re trying to find solutions for the problem,” Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. “That’s definitely demoralizing and frustrating as a defensive player.”

Franchise cornerstones

Holder: Taylor is always careful to speak in terms of the team. That said, even he can’t avoid the reality: He is starting to carve out a place among the game’s great running backs.

He’s making history for the Colts, despite them being a franchise that claims four Hall of Fame running backs (Lenny Moore, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk and Edgerrin James).

Taylor has two of the top three single-game rushing performances in franchise history, is second behind James in career yardage (6,908) and is one behind James’ franchise record 64 rushing touchdowns.

At just 26, Taylor doesn’t appear to be slowing down and seems to be past his rash of injuries that impacted his production in 2022 and 2023. His outstanding performance this season, when he seemed to be scoring touchdowns at will, has been generating talk of Taylor making a run at Most Valuable Player.

Recent history suggests a running back has very little chance. No running back has claimed the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Peterson was also the last non-quarterback to be honored.

But Taylor, who is a big proponent of running backs being valued more than they are these days, asks why not change history?

“You just have to do enough and whatever that is, you let the chips fall where they may,” said Taylor, who has scored three touchdowns in three separate games this season. “If you do enough, like guys in the past, they win it.”

Taylor is cognizant of the game’s history and his place in it. Now in his sixth season, he’s viewing his career with a bit more perspective. His exploits, he believes, can be a boost for all players at the position, which has been undervalued in recent years. Along those lines, Taylor dug in and won a contract standoff with the Colts in 2023.

“It’s an ongoing battle,” he said. “[Running backs] have got to continue to put good tape on film, and I think that’s something that we all try to do year in and year out … because, ultimately it’s us continuing to pave the way [for] the younger guys behind us taking that to new heights.”

Raimondi: Robinson typically watches film of great running backs on the morning of game days. Taylor highlights are among those he has checked out recently.

“Just hard to bring down,” Robinson said. “Hard to tackle. He’s always going forward. But I think the biggest thing with his game is his patience. He’ll wait until that hole is opened up, he’ll wait until he has a crease, and he has a very, very good offensive line.”

If he had to create the prototype of a running back, Robinson would take the cuts and agility of Barry Sanders, the straight-line speed of Chris Johnson, the power and explosion of Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson for “making people miss in phone booths.” Robinson threw in Faulk for catching balls out of the backfield.

“That’s the perfect running back right there,” Robinson said.

When he’s watching tapes of these luminaries, he’s not doing so for leisure.

“When I’m watching you, I’m not watching you just to see what you do,” Robinson said. “I’m seeing what you’re trying to do. Seeing how you set up defenders and then in practice I’m doing the same stuff and I’m trying to remember it, and I’ll write it down just because I want to work on those same moves and it helps me out a lot.”

Last week, before the Falcons’ game against the New England Patriots, Robinson was actually watching Taylor’s film specifically. In particular, he was seeing how Taylor “makes people miss while getting vertical.”

“That’s what I’ve been trying to focus on … in practice, and I respect it a lot from him,” Robinson said.