The end of the 2025 regular season means everyone around the sport is making NASCAR playoff predictions ahead of the Round of 16. Denny Hamlin is among those forecasting how the Round of 16 will unfold, including for rookie Shane van Gisbergen.
During this week’s edition of the Actions Detrimental podcast, Hamlin predicted that Austin Dillon, Josh Berry, Austin Cindric, and SVG will all be eliminated in the Round of 16.
“I’ll say Dillon, Berry, Cindric and SVG…(On SVG’s playoff points not being enough) Versus the guys like Bowman, Reddick, Logano, Chastain, Bubba. I think they all overtake, just on speed.
Denny Hamlin on which four drivers will be eliminated first from the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Playoffs
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The first three picks aren’t too surprising. Dillon and Berry are both below the Round of 12 cut line in the NASCAR playoff standings right now, and Cindric is just barely above it. While the 2025 Cup Rookie of the Year has a sizable points advantage, the upcoming tracks aren’t in his favor.
The NASCAR playoff schedule for the Round of 16 plays a huge role in Hamlin’s prediction. While van Gisbergen has improved on ovals, the trio of Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol are three of the toughest tracks for his relative inexperience—especially in a No. 88 car that hasn’t shown much speed at those venues.
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- Shane van Gisbergen stats (2025): 2,022 points, 4 wins, 5 top 10s, 4 top 5s, 3 poles, 3 DNFs, 252 laps led in 26 races
To Hamlin’s point, the results from SVG at those tracks haven’t been strong. He finished 20th at Darlington and 38th at Bristol earlier this season. Perhaps most crucially, he’s never raced at Gateway (World Wide Technology Raceway) before in the Cup Series.
At the very least, he’ll likely find himself in a very tight points battle to advance to the Round of 12. If he can make it through, van Gisbergen would get the chance to race on the Charlotte ROVAL (Sunday, Oct. 5), which could give him a real shot at reaching the Round of 8.
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