Do The Math, And You’ll See Why Sabres Are A Playoff Longshot

The Buffalo Sabres are facing an uphill battle to make the Stanley Cup playoffs this season, and we’ll be honest – in our pre-season predictions for THN.com, we slotted the Sabres into sixth place in the Atlantic. And we were being generous about Buffalo in comparison to THN magazine, which ranked the Sabres as the seventh-best team in the Atlantic.

It really comes down to easy math: you just have to ask yourself which teams are locks to make the playoffs, and how many playoff openings that leaves for the teams that aren’t playoff locks. And in the Atlantic, the math isn’t encouraging for the Sabres.

To wit: in this writer’s opinion, the Atlantic playoff locks are the Toronto Maple Leafs (who were the best regular-season team in the division last year), the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the defending-champion Florida Panthers.

The Maple Leafs made major changes, yet they still have a deep, skilled attack that’s going to be desperate to go far this year. They won’t be handing Buffalo any free standings points. Neither will the Lightning or Panthers. Thus, the Sabres will be fighting it out for fourth space. And the competition for fourth place is fierce. Not only are the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and Boston Bruins also vying for one spot – two spots if they’re good enough to steal an extra spot from the Metropolitan Division. 

It’s The Calm Before The Storm For Sabres As Buffalo Aims To End Painful Playoff Drought
For the Buffalo Sabres, it’s the calm before the storm. The NHL’s 2025-26 regular-season is about to commence, and with the new season comes a new set of expectations for the Sabres. And with this season’s Sabres, the expectation is urgent – this Buffalo team is either going to end the Sabres’ 14-year playoff drought, or there are going to be changes throughout the organization, including the firings of GM Kevyn Adams and coach Lindy Ruff.

All of this is to say the odds of the Sabres beating out every other team and sneaking into a wild card berth this year. There are too many things out of Buffalo’s control, too many what-ifs, too many ripple-effects. None of them make the Sabres’ lives easy. Buffalo could play well, and still not have their destiny in their hands down the stretch. That has to be alarming for Sabres hands who want nothing more than to cheer on their own playoff team. 

Buffalo knows they’re not going to be a popular pick to go far this season, and they need to use the underdog label to send a message – this year’s Sabres aren’t the Sabres of the past decade-and-a-half. Buffalo has sufficient talent to be a playoff team this season, and as they prepare for their first game Thursday night against the New York Rangers (another team that could hurt the Sabres landing a wild card spot), Buffalo understands they’re coming to a crossroads with this Sabres team.

Early Injuries To Key Sabres Players Can’t Be An Excuse For Buffalo To Fail This Season
We said it earlier this summer, on more than one occasion – if the Buffalo Sabres intend on ending their Stanley Cup playoff drought at 14 years, they can’t afford to let the injury bug take a major bite out of their roster. Obviously, that’s something that only the Hockey Gods can control, but the Sabres simply don’t have the organizational depth to withstand the damage if someone meaningful is sidelined for a notable stretch of time.

Buffalo absolutely has to empty the tank to avoid losing out on simply qualifying for the post-season. Because the Sabres are going to be fighting it out with many teams for a wild card berth, and the odds are stacked against them.