This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA — Sean Murphy broke a rib so that the Braves could prosper for many years to come.
Would Baldwin have been on Atlanta’s Opening Day roster?
Maybe. The Braves hadn’t ruled out the possibility of Baldwin starting the year in the Majors, even in a backup role.
But there’s no doubt Murphy missing the season’s first nine games improved the probability of Baldwin winning the award. If nothing else, the short absence put the Braves in position to be compensated quite nicely once Baldwin became the 10th player in franchise history to be named Rookie of the Year.
Courtesy of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, which was implemented with the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Baldwin winning this honor netted the Braves a compensation pick after the first round of the 2026 MLB Draft. Along with this comes what will likely be a little more than $3 million in bonus pool money. This could be used to aid the signing of any player Atlanta takes within the first 10 rounds next summer.
Clubs earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then either wins his league’s Rookie of the Year award or places in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.
One year of service requires 172 days on an active roster. So players with little or no MLB service time need to be called up within the first two weeks of Opening Day.
Would Baldwin have met this qualification had he not started the season with Atlanta? Probably not, but at least debatable.
Speaking of debates, the Braves would lose this compensation Draft pick if they were to sign any of these 13 players who received a qualifying offer: DH Kyle Schwarber, OF Kyle Tucker, SP Ranger Suárez, SP Framber Valdez, INF Bo Bichette, SP Dylan Cease, OF Trent Grisham, 2B Gleyber Torres, RP Edwin Díaz, SP Brandon Woodruff, SP Zac Gallen, SP Shota Imanaga, SP Michael King.
There is potentially significant long-term value with both the compensation pick and the accompanying bonus pool money. The additional funds could provide value with the selection of multiple players.
At the same time, there could be immediate and long-term value gained by signing an impact free agent who was given a qualifying offer. In other words, if the Braves have a chance to land Cease, then it’s worth debating whether it’s worth doing so at the expense of the Draft pick and bonus pool money.
The same wouldn’t necessarily go for Gallen. I previously wrote it might be worth taking a chance on Gallen bouncing back next year. But once he received the qualifying offer, the total cost became too significant. He likely wouldn’t bring the significant long-term value needed to justify losing the compensation pick.
