Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chiamev: Odds, full fight preview | UFC 319

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight rivals Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Aug. 16, 2025) at UFC 319 inside United Center in Chicago, Illinois.

To say Dricus Du Plessis has exceeded expectations would be an understatement. “DDP” wasn’t a particularly standout signing when he joined the UFC roster, but that didn’t stop him from gaining momentum and repeatedly finishing his opponents as the competition grew stiff. In his last four wins, he’s beaten the three best Middleweights of the last decade, proven himself top of the current class.

For Khamzat, expectations have been high since the very beginning. Steamrolling two opponents in 10 days will get fans excited! Actually capitalizing on all that momentum and hype has proven a little more challenging, but after multiple years of struggling to make it to the cage, “Borz” will finally make the walk with UFC gold on the line.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Betting Odds

Du Plessis, in his own unique and bizarre way, is an extremely well-rounded fighter and usually comes equipped with an intelligent game plan. Looking at his skill set objectively: “DDP” is a crafty kicker with major power in his hands who can fight from both stances. He’s offensively wrestled to help win two UFC title fights. His jiu-jitsu is perhaps the least controversial of his skills, as Du Plessis has won 11 fights via tapout and been consistent sound on the canvas in the Octagon.

Du Plessis may deny it, but perhaps the biggest key factor in this match up is weathering the storm. Khamzat Chimaev can show up with the lowest resting heart rate of all time, but the way he fights guarantees fatigue. He’s a sprinter, and Du Plessis wants to make this fight a marathon.

The great question, then, is how to survive on the floor? We know Khamzat is going to score the takedown, though of course Du Plessis should make this as difficult and grueling as possible. Hopefully, Du Plessis can bring his history of pattern recognition into the Octagon and work to avoid the two most dangerous Khamzat positions: the front head lock and back take.

The latter is fairly easy to avoid: “DDP” can avoid giving Khamzat his back by simply not turning his back to stand. That takes away the easiest path to his feet, but that’s an acceptable tradeoff for a round or two to extend the clock. The front head lock is a little trickier, as there are lots of avenues to that position, but Du Plessis could work to avoid it by using the guard to stand rather than wrestling up on a single leg.

I’d love to see Du Plessis focus on elevating from bottom position through the butterfly or x-guard. If that’s not working, it’s better to accept bottom position in the early goings than get submitted while trying to stand.

As time wears on, Khamzat will grow significantly less fast and powerful. When that opportunities comes, Du Plessis has to work his attritional damage (low kicks, body punches) and build towards the knockout, never letting Khamzat build up to another sprint.

Chimaev is a destroyer. He has the most explosive double leg shot in the game, a low charge that is apparently unstoppable while he’s at his freshest. On the canvas, Chimaev’s top control and flow is masterful, and he’s capable of instant finishes if able to grab the neck at any point. We haven’t seen that much of his stand up game overall, but the Chechen standout is certainly capable of firing powerful, crisp punches.

This is a difficult section to write, because it feels like Khamzat only has one real game plan? He goes balls to the wall in pursuit of the early finish every single time. He didn’t switch up anything for his first five-round booking against Robert Whittaker. “Borz” bets everything on his ability to score the quick finish, and if it doesn’t happen, he’s in a vulnerable position because of it.

So, with that in mind, here’s my adjustment for Khamzat Chimaev: land hard ground strikes. He has to focus on doing damage from top position, because Du Plessis has surely trained hard to avoid his usual submission setups. A few well-placed elbows could force “DDP” to scramble, perhaps convincing him to take risks that allow Khamzat onto his neck early on.

Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Prediction

I have spoken about this previously in predictions, but I hate picking the fighter with worse conditioning. It’s a fatal flaw in the game where cardio is so routinely king. Sometimes, this prediction mantra backfires, like in Tyron Woodley’s entire title reign. Still, every half-decent Khamzat opponent knows the path to victory: survive the early storm and take advantage late. Just because it’s obvious, however, doesn’t mean that’s an easy goal to accomplish.

I believe “DDP” can pull it off though, who will be be an exhausting man to hold down. Better yet, his jiu-jitsu has proven to be excellent, which should buy him some level of safety even in bad positions. Perhaps more than anything else, I trust Du Plessis and his team have proven their ability to game plan appropriately even complicated stylistic asks.

Though an undeniably great fighter, Khamzat presents a simple question. “Stillknocks” will come equipped with the relevant answer.

Prediction: Du Plessis via knockout