South African middleweight champ DDP goes after third title defense in Chicago
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev prediction
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 319 main event.
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 319 main event title fight between middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev.
Dricus Du Plessis UFC 319 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 23-2 MMA, 9-0 UFC
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
- Last fight: Decision win over Sean Strickland (Feb. 8, 2025)
- Camp: Team CIT (South Africa)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + UFC middleweight champion
- + Regional MMA titles
- + Black belt kickboxing (2nd degree)
- + Amateur kickboxing accolades
- + 9 KO victories
- + 11 submission wins
- + 8 first-round finishes
- + 18-1 as a middleweight
- + KO power
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Awkward but effective timing
- ^ Favors striking in combination
- + Strong inside the clinch
- + Serviceable wrestling ability
- + Aggressive grappling game
- ^ Uses submissions to transitions
Khamzat Chimaev UFC 319 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 14-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC
- Height: 6’2″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75″
- Last fight: Submission win over Robert Whittaker (Oct. 2, 2024)
- Camp: ADMA Academy (Abu Dhabi)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + National champion in freestyle wrestling (SE)
- ^ Won multiple years and weight divisions
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + Amateur MMA accolades
- + 7 KO victories
- + 6 submission victories
- + 9 first-round finishes
- + 6-0 as a middleweight
- + KO power
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Steadily improving striking and footwork
- ^ Solid jab from both stances
- + Favors front kicks from open stance
- + Superb wrestling ability
- + Excellent transitional grappling
- ^ Consistent, punishing process
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev point of interest: Chaotic combat
The main event for UFC 319 features a middleweight title fight between two fighters who thrive inside of chaos.
A marauding madman from South Africa, Dricus Du Plessis is a deceptively well-prepared fighter with a style that can be difficult to get a beat on.
Fueled by unbridled confidence and an insane athletic drive, discouraging Du Plessis appears to be a near-impossible task. Whether he’s looking to counter off a high guard or is blitzing forward spastically, Du Plessis always appears to be focused on the task at hand.
The current middleweight champion is also competent in both stances and regularly shifts to southpaw, which further flusters opponents who are already struggling to grasp his awkward timing.
However, despite the steady improvements that Du Plessis has been displaying in his striking, he is not beyond being taxed down the centerline for his aggressiveness.
Enter Khamzat Chimaev.
Despite coming from a wrestling base, Khamzat Chimaev appears to be comfortable striking from both stances.
The Chechen fighter can fire off snappy jabs from either side, which, in turn, help him follow up with power shots.
Unless his opponent carries a decent grappling pedigree, Chimaev usually wastes little time extending striking exchanges before looking to change his levels and wrestle. However, in fights that are extended, we’ve seen Chimaev play a bit more with open-stance looks on the feet.
Whether Chimaev is throwing his favored front kick or looking to line up a wicked right hand, he seems to be gaining a taste for open-stance affairs. That said, Chimaev’s skills don’t exactly shine through in the defensive department, so the 31-year-old will need to make sure he respects the offense from fellow stance-switcher, Du Plessis.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev breakdown: Wrestler’s wrath
Considering the arguable crux of Chimaev’s game, winning the wrestling will remain paramount for both parties.
Wrestling since the age of five, Chimaev has seemingly adapted to the grappling arts like second nature. From a lightning-fast shot to incredible wherewithal within the clinch, the 10-year pro seems to have it all from a wrestling perspective.
Chimaev shows a lot of the freestyle (and even Greco) looks that you would associate with his part of the world, yet also demonstrates a lot of the positional rides that traditionally come easier to American folkstyle wrestlers. And when Chimaev took the back of Li Jingliang at UFC 267, the Chechen fighter showed off some very competent jiu-jitsu to close to show via rear-naked choke.
From early in his regional career to his battle with Gilbert Burns, Chimaev has shown solid submission and wrestling defense in multiple scenarios. Whether someone is looking for Chimaev’s legs or attempting to re-guard, the product from the Allstars Training Center typically gives his opposition very little to work with – all while staying busy with offense of his own.
Nevertheless, I still believe that Chimaev cannot afford to overlook Du Plessis’ skills.
Coming from a background in both judo and wrestling, Du Plessis is no stranger when it comes to the takedown aspect of mixed martial arts.
Sure, there are certainly some failed lateral drop highlights that aren’t the most flattering for Du Plessis if you dig deep enough, but the 31-year-old has his head in the right place in regards to timing and tactics.
For example, Du Plessis may not prioritize position over submission in the classic sense, but the South African fighter is good about using said submissions to transition into superior positions that allow him to get off damage.
Du Plessis is also good at using the cage to stand or create scrambles when it’s available, and demonstrates other tools ranging from empty-half guard tactics to knee-to-elbow escapes when put on his back. And when building back to his base, Du Plessis is smart about keeping low underhooks when re-wrestling and swimming for singles – a small detail that could be the difference-maker against the front-choke counters from Chimaev.
When Du Plessis can achieve top position, the current champ is a good guard passer who carries his own inter-play off front-choke threats, typically looking to establish damage whenever possible. However, I’m not sure how much top time “Still Knocks” will be seeing in this fight.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the challenger, listing Chimaev -245 and Du Plessis +194 via FanDuel.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev prediction, pick
Considering the unrelenting amount of hype that’s been bestowed on Chimaev since touching down in the octagon, it’s no surprise to see him favored over the sitting champion in this spot.
Borderline uncomfortable glazing aside, Chimaev is an undeniably ferocious talent and the best first-round fighter we’ve seen since a prime B.J. Penn. Should Chimaev come out and immediately storm Du Plessis’ proverbial castle with success, then none of us should be shocked if the Chechen fighter ends up finding the finish on his South African counterpart.
Still, I can’t help but wonder what happens if Du Plessis can survive considering his similar tactical choices to one Kamaru Usman – who was able to survive Chimaev’s initial storm and show some potential holes in his game.
Chimaev may not have been healthy for said outing opposite Usman, but that doesn’t change the fact that we’ve yet to see “Borz” convincingly win a third frame, much less a fourth or fifth.
Whereas Du Plessis, who is very familiar with five-round affairs, traditionally does well over 25 minutes due to his consistent output and ability to adjust.
In fact, preparation and the ability to adjust appear to be a point of pride for both Du Plessis and his training camp. And though it can feel like you’re watching an episode of “OZ” with the way Du Plessis interacts with his head coach, Morne Visser, in the corner, there’s no denying their chemistry as they always appear to be dialed in on objectives regardless of how the fight is going.
Despite Chimaev having multiple ways of winning this fight (including on the feet via his straight punches and body teeps), I still find myself siding with the underdog in Du Plessis.
I don’t disagree with Chimaev being favored to win, but I can’t help but lean toward the more proven product who doesn’t mind having to be the nail en route to winning. A quick finish wouldn’t shock me if Chimaev can get to his favored positions fast, but I believe that the challenger’s lack of pacing control will cost him come the middle rounds if his gambits fail to produce dividends.
It’s not a popular pick, but I’ll officially side with Du Plessis to survive early and pull away down the stretch to force a stoppage in Round 4.
Prediction: Du Plessis inside the distance
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev start time, how to watch
As the main event, Du Plessis and Chimaev are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
