The Yankees and Giants will open the 2026 MLB season on March 25. We’ll be counting down to that date with our annual preview series, with each story looking ahead to the coming season by breaking down a particular topic, division by division.
Today: Each division’s team most likely to make the playoffs after missing them in 2025
Five teams made the postseason in 2025 who did not make it in 2024: the Cubs, Reds, Red Sox, Mariners and the eventual American League champion Blue Jays. That means seven teams have multiyear streaks going, including the two-time defending champion Dodgers, who haven’t missed the postseason since 2012. But there’s always someone new. That’s one of the fun parts of this whole thing.
So this week, as part of our ongoing season preview series, we’ll take a look at a team from each division that didn’t make the playoffs last year who has the best chance to make it in 2026. As the Blue Jays can tell you, once you get in the tournament, anything can happen.
Put it this way: The Orioles had better make the playoffs this year. After their breakthrough season in 2023, in which they won 101 games and the division crown, but then were swept in the ALDS, the Orioles have backtracked. They dropped to 91 wins and a Wild Card spot in 2024, suffering a two-game sweep in the Wild Card Series, then plummeted to 75-87 and last place in 2025. Remember: This team was supposed to be the future of not just the division, but the entire American League, yet it still hasn’t won a postseason game since 2014.
Last year’s bottoming out has led to significantly increased aggression from a front office that’s increasingly under pressure. Mike Elias’ group has brought in Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley and Andrew Kittredge, and still may be eying another starter, which the club does seem to need. There’s still a ton of talent here, and if some of the young position players can take steps forward, it’s not hard at all to see Baltimore returning to October. If it doesn’t, though, that front office could see some changes.
Did you realize Kansas City had a winning record last year? I write about baseball for a living and I totally missed that. The Royals were nine games over .500 from July 1 onward, and while it wasn’t quite enough to catch the Tigers (the team they were chasing most of that time) or the Guardians (the team that ended up ahead of them both), it was some proof of concept for the team that it was still on the right track.
Kansas City focused on the bullpen this offseason and added outfielder Isaac Collins, but otherwise, the club is mostly running the same team back out there. Considering the rest of this division — with only the last-place White Sox looking appreciably better than they were in 2025 — that might not be the worst strategy. This division is someone’s for the taking. Might as well be Kansas City.
The Rangers and the Astros are probably safer picks here, but what’s the fun in that? Those teams are older and on the way down; the A’s are the exact opposite. So let’s do it and be legends. You don’t need me to persuade you that the Athletics have one of the most exciting, if not the most exciting, offense in all of baseball. They’re stacked with young hitters, led of course by Nick Kurtz but buoyed by Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler and Denzel Clarke, not to mention veterans Brent Rooker and Jeff McNeil.
I mean, how can you not get inspired by those guys? There isn’t a team in baseball that’s not envious of a young lineup with the potential for growth like that one. Now, there also probably isn’t a team in baseball that is envious of that pitching staff: Obviously there’s some work to be done there. But the A’s are going to be a late-night treat for fans all year: 10-8 wins count just as much as 4-2 ones. I’m fully on board. Hop on with me.
This feels like a coin flip between the Mets and the Braves, and all told, you can make a pretty good argument they’re both going to make the postseason. I’m gonna go with the Mets, though, even if all that talk about how much they were going to value defense this offseason is looking a little silly now. (I expect the infield alignment to look much different on Sept. 1 than it does on April 1.)
But when you’ve got Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor to build around, you’ve got as strong a foundation as any team in the sport, and Bo Bichette will help the lineup. If some of that young pitching can emerge, if they can filter in some of those hitting prospects who are on the verge and if the bullpen additions can lock down leads, this looks like a team that’s good enough to avoid a late-season collapse this time around.
This division has, uh, limited options: The Brewers, Cubs and Reds all made the playoffs in 2025. That gives us just two choices: the Pirates and the Cardinals. I’m not entirely certain the Cardinals are going to be quite as awful as others think they will be in 2026, because they have some intriguing young talent on the roster, including top prospect J.J. Wetherholt, who is about to be one of your favorite young players. But there’s no question that the Cardinals aren’t really trying to contend in 2026 in any serious way.
The same can’t be said for the Pirates, who need to start taking advantage of the gift that is Paul Skenes as quickly as they can, before that arbitration and free agency clock really starts clicking. With Skenes at the front, Mitch Keller behind him and Bubba Chandler perhaps ready to step into the spotlight, the Bucs could have one of the game’s top rotations. Then again, that was also true in 2025. But this time, their hitting should be better with the additions of Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Jake Mangum, to go with, hopefully, a full season for Spencer Horwitz and a step forward for Oneil Cruz. Still, “better” is a low bar for MLB’s lowest-scoring offense in 2025.
The Pirates are motivated to win more than the Cardinals are in 2026, so they’re the pick here. The real answer is probably “neither,” though.
It will be fascinating to see how Tony Vitello fits in as the Giants’ new manager after spending his career in college baseball; ideally, the innovation makes up for his lack of MLB experience immediately. But even if he’s instantly accepted and brings a whole new dimension to San Francisco’s dugout, this still looks mostly like last year’s team, despite the addition of a couple of starting pitchers. Plus, the Giants still seem to be shaping themselves into what they’ll eventually be.
The Diamondbacks, though, they need to win now, particularly after adding Nolan Arenado, bringing back Merrill Kelly and keeping Ketel Marte to go along with Geraldo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno. With Corbin Burnes still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery for at least the first half of 2026, the pitching is going to be a concern. But Arizona looks a bit closer than the Giants do … and like it has considerably more urgency. Take away that World Series run two years ago, and the Diamondbacks haven’t made the playoffs since 2017.
