Alabama football is preparing for its annual clash with the Tennessee Volunteers in the 108th edition of the Third Saturday in October rivalry at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Alabama (5-1 overall, 3-0 SEC) and Tennessee (5-1, 2-1) are both coming off wins in conference play last Saturday. The Crimson Tide held off the Missouri Tigers for a 27-24 win in Columbia, while the Vols avoided an upset bid by Arkansas in a 34-31 victory at Neyland Stadium.
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Alabama is ranked No. 6 in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 poll; Tennessee is ranked No. 11.
Ahead of this year’s Alabama-Tennessee matchup in Week 8 SEC play, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has made a prediction on who will win using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has the Crimson Tide and coach Kalen DeBoer coming out ahead of Josh Heupel’s Vols Saturday night in Tuscaloosa — just barely.
Connelly gives Alabama a win probability of 56%.
Tennessee comes out slightly ahead of Alabama in ESPN’s SP+, but the two are practically tied in the rankings; the Vols have an overall rating of 21.0 to the Tide’s 20.8.
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Despite an impressive win against a top-15 opponent on the road at Missouri, Alabama slipped seven spots in the SP+ this week, while Tennessee moved up one spot with a close win over Arkansas.
To break down the ratings by units, SP+ gives Tennessee the edge in offense (40.3, No. 3 nationally) over Alabama (36.7, No. 16), as well as defense (19.5 for the Volunteers, 15.8 for the Crimson Tide).
What are ESPN SP+ rankings?
According to Connelly, SP+ is “simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
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“SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does,” he adds.
Alabama vs Tennessee start time, TV channel
Kickoff for Alabama-Tennessee is set for 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be televised on ABC.
Alabama football schedule 2025
All start times Central.
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Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
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Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
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Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
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Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee, 6:30 p.m., ABC
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Oct. 25: at South Carolina, 2:30 p.m., ABC
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Nov. 8: vs. LSU, prime time
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Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football vs Tennessee, final score prediction from ESPN SP+
