This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
BOSTON — While Lucas Giolito technically became a free agent earlier this week when the big righty and the Red Sox agreed not to exercise a $19 million mutual option, there is a path for the sides to reunite for another season, though not necessarily a likely one.
The Red Sox have until Thursday at 5 p.m. ET to extend a $22.025 million qualifying offer to Giolito, who made a nice bounceback from right UCL surgery in 2025, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings.
The innings wound up being an important component. Once Giolito reached 140 innings, his $14 million club option — which the Red Sox likely would have picked up — turned into the mutual option at $5 million more.
Although mutual options are rarely ever agreed upon between the player and club, qualifying offers being accepted also isn’t common.
Many times when a club tags a qualifying offer on a player, it is simply to make sure the team gets Draft compensation when said player signs with another team.
It can be a slippery slope, however. If the Sox really don’t want to allocate $22.025 million to Giolito, they run the risk of doing so if he accepts the QO.
Here is a look at the situation from both sides.
Why might the Sox extend Giolito a QO?
First, for the aforementioned carrot of Draft compensation. Another reason is that it would be a short-term deal with a pitcher who quickly emerged as one of the leaders of the pitching staff last year.
Although Giolito took some lumps in his first seven starts back from surgery (6.42 ERA), he hit his stride the rest of the way, going 9-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 19 starts.
As the Sox found out first-hand in 2025, rotation depth can take a beating in a hurry. What Boston thought was a strength of the team was depleted by the time the playoffs opened, and September callup Connelly Early was called on to start the decisive Game 3 of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium.
Why might Giolito be the rare player to accept the QO?
If Giolito gets a qualifying offer, he has until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept it. That gives him a couple of weeks to gauge what his value is on the open market.
Given that the qualifying offer is $8 million more than Giolito’s original club option and $3 million more than the mutual option, he would still come out a winner in terms of short-term AAV.
In addition, Giolito had an irritated flexor tendon that kept him off of Boston’s Wild Card Series roster. Though it wasn’t a major injury, the Red Sox don’t believe he would have been able to contribute in October, even if the club had advanced.
It’s at least possible that setback could dampen Giolito’s market to some degree, which could make him more compelled to accept the QO.
There’s also this: Giolito has really enjoyed his time in Boston, speaking openly about how much he loves pitching at Fenway and the tight bond he has formed with his teammates. Another strong year in Boston could give him a chance to reset his market value.
One more path to a reunion
Whether or not the Sox extend Giolito a qualifying offer, and regardless of if he accepts or declines, there’s also the chance the sides could agree on a multiyear deal.
The Red Sox could have an advantage against other clubs if they extend a qualifying offer first, because other teams might be less reluctant to make a push for Giolito knowing that it entails Draft compensation.
And even if they don’t extend the QO, the Sox know what kind of competitor and teammate Giolito is after seeing him up close.
