Home US SportsNFL Facts vs. Feelings: Don’t be haunted by the ghosts of fantasy weeks past

Facts vs. Feelings: Don’t be haunted by the ghosts of fantasy weeks past

by

What’s your favorite ghost story? The one that made your eyes go wide and the tiny hairs on the back of your neck stand straight up? A tale so compelling that, while you might not recall all of the details, you’ll never forget how its telling captivated your whole self. A yarn spun so fantastically that disbelief wasn’t just suspended, it was gleefully tossed aside.

That could be any story, I suppose. But there’s something uniquely fascinating about lore. Maybe because it’s a tale warped in historical legitimacy. They don’t deliver big feels without being founded on solid facts. The more specific the picture painted, the more easily we are swept into the mythology.

A bit of a reveal… my most beloved sightseeing activity is to sign up for a guided ghost tour anytime I’m visiting a new city. Posting up at a dive bar full of locals is close second. But what if that pub is haunted? Talk about strong spirits! I’m here for the education and the entertainment. What better way to soak up an unfamiliar locale than via the people and places of its past?

And that is why, despite having lived in Los Angeles for more than 15 years, I finally participated in a haunted pub crawl through Hollywood this past weekend. Instead of making a reso at some new Italian spot or group bingeing the latest Jason Bateman vehicle, my friends and I decided to traipse down the Walk of Fame whilst an aspiring actor named “Bennie” shared stories of our town’s heyday and the souls that are rumored to linger. What better way to celebrate Spooky Season?!?

Whether it was learning about Fritz, the phantom stagehand who allegedly still rustles the curtains at Grauman’s Chinese Theater or Rudy Valentino, whose lothario spirit has been sighted throughout the city, each account delighted us. Sure, the suds we sipped along the way increased our buy-in, but we were willing participants. There is, after all, no better context for the present than to discover the past.

I don’t know if I believe in ghosts. But I will admit to being intrigued at the idea of eschewing permanence. Not because there’s anything appealing about languishing in a liminal space. But because there exists a distinct desire to become un-stuck. I mean we’ve all been plagued by something at some point. Probably not a translucent barkeep or headless horseman, but definitely by a thought, or an idea, or a pattern. Once we’re able to stop the repetition, though, then we’re free. We can move on.

We do this in fantasy on a regular basis. Which Cardinals’ RB do I start this week? How do I bench Cam Skattebo versus Denver when he’s been on such a tear? Is Ladd McConkey back? Can Dallas Goedert keep this up? When will the wheels fall off of Baker Mayfield‘s wagon? The back-and-forth can be downright haunting.

Eventually, though, we make a choice and we live with it. Hopefully, we learn from it, too. So that, unlike the apparitions stranded under creaky floors and behind attic doors, we can continue on our journey and experience the next undertaking. Even (and especially) if it gives us the chills.

Facts versus Feelings for players in Week 7 (and the beyond)

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys: Prescott has been playing like a man possessed, ranking second at the position in passing yards (269 per game) and passing scores (13). The 32-year-old has logged at least 22 fantasy points in four of his past five games while averaging 27 fantasy points over the past three weeks. Given that the Cowboys defense is allowing over 30 points per game, there’s no reason to believe Prescott won’t keep chucking the ball. And with CeeDee Lamb likely to return, Prescott’s conversion rate (71.6 CMP%, QB4) figures to stay sterling.

Additionally working in Prescott’s favor is the matchup versus Washington. Admittedly, the Commanders D-line has been able to generate pressure as of late, registering the sixth-most sacks (18) on the season. That said, the team’s secondary has been susceptible to big plays, giving up the second-most receptions of 40 or more yards with six (behind only the Cowboys’ seven) while also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to signal callers. In a game with a spread of just 2.5 points and an over/under of 55.5 points, the fantasy fireworks figure to be popping on Sunday. Consider Prescott a top-5 fantasy play at the position.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: The electric rusher that started the season seems to have vanished over the last pair of outings. Etienne’s production and efficiency have plummeted since Week 4, as he’s failed to reach double-digit fantasy totals in back-to-back efforts. In fact, he’s managed zero rushes of 10 or more yards over the past two weeks. While those results could be explained away via game script and schedule, they don’t figure to change in Week 7.

The Jags are 2.5-point underdogs versus the Rams in London. Acknowledging that international games always add an element of surprise, there’s no denying the strength of L.A.’s run defense. Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams’ 37 percent run stop win rate is the best in the NFL. Furthermore, Chris Shula’s unit has not only allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.7) to RBs, but the defense has yet to give up a single run of 20 or more yards. In fact, not one back has managed a run of 15 more yards this season.

Derrick Henry was able to accumulate 122 rushing yards versus Los Angeles in Week 6 but was impressively held out of the end zone, making the Rams the only team yet to allow a rushing score to the position. For context, Christian McCaffrey has been the only running back to post 15 fantasy points when facing the Rams, and he did that mostly through his work as a pass-catcher (only 2.6 YPC, but 8-82-1 through the air in Week 5). Etienne does offer appeal as receiver (he’s drawn at least four looks in consecutive outings), which helps to buoy his stock. Yet, given his recent struggles and the matchup, the Jags’ RB1 projects as a low-end RB2 for fantasy purposes in London.

play

1:21

Why Rico Dowdle was a big fantasy winner in Week 6

Field Yates breaks down Rico Dowdle’s upward trend in fantasy that he thinks will continue into Week 7 when the Panthers face the Jets.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers: Hubbard’s absence has created space for the resurrection of Rico Dowdle. After rumbling his way to an otherworldly 473 scrimmage yards over his past two starts, the former Cowboy seems to have seized the Panthers’ RB1 gig. As the saying goes, there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle. That, however, has left Hubbard investors in a precarious position. On the bright side, noting the fact that Dowdle averaged 30 touches per contest, a 50/50 split would still result in 15 touches for Hubbard. (And that theory is about as likely to materialize as Marilyn’s ghost in a haunted mirror at the Roosevelt Hotel.)

While the softness of Carolina’s schedule certainty contributed to Dowdle’s massive numbers, it’s not as though this week’s matchup presents an imposing obstacle. The Jets run defense has been a major liability, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards on the season and an average of over 115 total yards to RBs per week. Still, it seems unlikely that a more difficult matchup would inspire Dave Canales to prioritize the lesser of his two backs.

That point hits home all the harder when noting that Hubbard recorded zero goal-to-goal rushes and zero rushes inside the 5-yard line prior to injuring his calf. Conversely, Dowdle registered five goal-to-goal opportunities and three attempts inside the 5. This game projects to be all kinds of messy, but the backfield split should be clean with Dowdle offering virtual investors RB2 appeal and Hubbard existing as a last-ditch flex.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons: London’s production has taken on a mystical quality since he was visited by the Commanders in Week 4. The 24-year-old (yes, he’s younger than his QB, despite having been in the league for two more seasons) has posted triple-digit yardage totals and found the end zone in two straight efforts (separated by a bye).

Posting 25 fantasy points in Week 4 (WR5) and 31.8 fantasy points in Week 6 (WR1), London has been dominant as Michael Penix Jr.’s most relied upon pass-catcher (10.6 looks per contest, WR3). With Darnell Mooney (hamstring) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (coach’s decision) out of the lineup, London drew a monster target share of 52 percent last Sunday. Even without the noted absences, his 33 percent target share for the season ranks third among WRs (behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Garrett Wilson). Additionally, London’s 43 percent end zone target share is tied for the seventh-most in the NFL.

Simply put, he’s getting the looks and doing the most with his opportunities. That’s a trend that should continue at San Francisco in Week 7. The 49ers defense is down badly, having lost its two most revered stars (DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner). While that’s excellent news for Bijan Robinson supporters, a projected point total of 44.5 suggests plenty of aerial action for the Falcons receivers. In fact, the 49ers gave up 256 receiving yards and two receiving scores to an embattled Bucs squad last Sunday. That bodes well for London, who figures to flirt with six grabs and 80 yards this weekend.

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: The time is nigh! Rice is set to make his 2025 debut this Sunday versus the Raiders. There exists an understandable amount of speculation regarding the 25-year-old’s potential volume. Still, managers didn’t select the SMU standout before the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts to let him languish, particularly in a week with two teams on bye and a slew of star players set to miss time. Remember, Rice isn’t working his way back from an injury. He’s been healthy, serving a suspension. That means he should have the ability to pick up where he left off.

Rice last suited up in September 2024, drawing 29 targets over three games while averaging 96 yards per contest. He may not match those numbers this Sunday, but there are plenty of places from which to draw opportunities. JuJu Smith-Schuster (who has yet to clear 60 yards in a game) figures to move down the depth chart. Tyquan Thornton will likely also see his role reduced, drawing one or two deep looks per outing. Finally, Andy Reid has remained candid regarding his desire to preserve Travis Kelce for the postseason. In fact, Kelce averaged just four targets per game when sharing the field with Rice last year.

All of that being said, with the Chiefs being 10.5-point favorites, Rice’s opportunities may not be robust. Still, he figures to be involved. Plus, facing a generous Raiders secondary that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs, Rice won’t need a boatload of balls to put up points. He figures to act as a balm to struggling squads, presenting with top 15 to 20 position fantasy appeal in Week 7.

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers: Perhaps this is more of a premonition than a prognostication, but the Golden moment feels fast approaching. The Texas standout has exceeded 50 receiving yards in three straight efforts, after managing just 16 receiving yards over his first two outings combined. Interestingly, he’s also logged at least one rushing attempt in each of his past four games, registering a total of eight since Week 2 (tied for the most by any WR or TE in the NFL during that span). That indicates a desire to get the versatile rookie acutely involved in the offense.

While Golden figures to play second fiddle to Romeo Doubs, his matchup sets him up for flex-worthy success in Week 7. The Cardinals have been uber generous to the slot, allowing the most grabs and receiving yards to players manning the inside. Interestingly, Golden leads the Packers in fantasy points from the slot this season. The arrow is pointing up.

play

0:39

Why Harold Fannin Jr. shouldn’t be overlooked in fantasy

Liz Loza breaks down Harold Fannin Jr.’s upward trend in fantasy ahead of the Browns matchup against the Dolphins in Week 7.

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Cleveland Browns: Fannin is the future and the future appears to be now. With Dillon Gabriel at the helm, Fannin has posted double-digit fantasy points in two straight efforts. In fact, Fannin leads the Browns in grabs and receiving yards (and is tied for the team lead in red zone looks). Admittedly, David Njoku‘s early exit afforded the rookie more opportunities in Week 6. Still, the Bowling Green product rose to the occasion, converting seven of a season-high 10 balls for a team-high 81 receiving yards.

Fannin figures to be involved again this Sunday, especially given that Cleveland leads the NFL in tight end targets, catches and yards. Additionally, over half of Fannin’s snaps (74%) have come while lined up as either a WR or a RB, a point made by ESPN’s own Kimberley A. Martin during last week’s edition of “Fantasy Football Now.” He’s all over the field and demonstrating excellent rapport with the team’s current stop-gap under center.

Bettering Fannin’s odds of converting is a plus matchup versus Miami. The Dolphins are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, having gifted the Chargers’ Oronde Gadsden II (also a rookie) with a 7-68-0 stat line in Week 6. If Njoku is absent (or even limited), Fannin could post top-eight fantasy numbers at the position. He offers low-end TE1 appeal regardless of Njoku’s status. Let the conjuring begin.

Source link

You may also like

Leave a Comment