The calendar flipping to February means two things. One, the All-Star break is right around the corner. Two, and most importantly, the trade deadline is even closer. This season’s deadline falls on February 5, and with Giannis Antetokounmpo being the focus of the most impactful rumors, it’s fair to wonder if he — or another big name — will be on the move between now and Thursday.
Obviously, such moves will have a significant effect on fantasy basketball. And what happens at the deadline will reveal how teams will approach the rest of the season. Are teams in the mix for a play-in spot willing to continue that fight? Or will they pivot toward prioritizing their draft lottery odds? The “silly season” is already underway in some places (hello, Utah and Brooklyn), but the play-in tournament has kept some teams from being outright “sellers” at the trade deadline since it was instituted.
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While we wait to see if there will be a seismic Luka Dončić-like trade, fantasy managers also have to navigate the final full week of basketball before the All-Star break. And a loss can do severe damage to a team’s chances of reaching the fantasy playoffs. Let’s look at the Week 16 schedule and some of its key storylines.
Week 16 Games Played
4 Games: BOS, HOU, IND, LAC, MEM, MIN, NYK, PHI, WAS
3 Games: ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHX, POR, SAC, SAS, TOR, UTA
2 Games: CLE
Week 16 Back-to-backs
Sunday (Week 15)-Monday: LAC
Monday-Tuesday: IND, PHI
Tuesday-Wednesday: BOS, DEN, MIL, NYK, OKC
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Wednesday-Thursday: HOU, SAS, TOR
Thursday-Friday: DET
Friday-Saturday: MEM, POR, SAC
Saturday-Sunday: WAS
Sunday-Monday (Week 17): MIA, MIN
Week 16 Storylines of Note
– All nine teams that play four games in Week 16 have a back-to-back.
At first glance, the teams that play four games during Week 16 have a slight edge in fantasy basketball. However, some of those teams have fantasy-relevant players whose availability for back-to-backs has been an issue this season. Philadelphia, which will be without Paul George due to a 25-game suspension, opens its west coast trip with a back-to-back against the Clippers and Warriors. Will Joel Embiid be available for both games? Or are fantasy managers looking at a three-game week for the former MVP?
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Houston is another team to be mindful of, mainly because of Tari Eason. He hasn’t played both games of a back-to-back this season, so fantasy managers have to plan for him sitting either on Wednesday (vs. Boston) or Thursday (vs. Charlotte). Dorian Finney-Smith is in the same boat, but his availability does not affect fantasy basketball. Also, the Wizards end their week with a back-to-back. Obviously, this likely limits Khris Middleton to three games, but how will Tre Johnson‘s availability be managed if he can return from the sprained ankle he suffered during Thursday’s win over the Bucks? Given how close the playoff weeks are in some fantasy leagues, managing availability and the waiver wire will be crucial during Week 16.
– The 76ers continue without the suspended Paul George.
On Saturday, the NBA announced that Paul George has been suspended 25 games for a violation of the league’s anti-drug policy. Obviously, his absence leaves a sizable hole in the 76ers’ rotation, and it opens up questions as to how the front office will approach the trade deadline. Do they look to make a move that would help the team avoid the luxury tax, gambling on the idea that what they have once George returns will be enough? Or, do the 76ers look to strengthen the bench, likely by adding another shooter to the mix?
In the short term, Dominick Barlow returned to the starting lineup on Saturday, but he’s still on a two-way contract, and that should change, given his contributions this season. As for who can pick up the slack offensively with George out, VJ Edgecombe and Kelly Oubre Jr. are at the top of the list. And with the 76ers playing four games in Week 16, there may be the added boost of Embiid missing a game due to injury management if the 76ers decide to sit him for one game of their back-to-back.
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– How will the players traded late Saturday night fit in their new homes?
One year after the Mavericks shocked the sports world by trading Dončić, the Kings, Cavaliers and Bulls made a three-team deal that is highly unlikely to be as impactful. De’Andre Hunter is on his way to Sacramento, with the Cavaliers receiving Keon Ellis, Dennis Schröder and Emanuel Miller. The Bulls, who had to include Miller in the deal per league rules, received Dario Šarić from the Kings and a future second-round pick from both the Kings and the Cavaliers. Also, the Cavaliers waived Luke Travers to free up a two-way slot for Miller, and the Bulls waived Jevon Carter.
Hunter could have the most significant impact on fantasy basketball in his new home, but only if the Kings manage to move a high-salary veteran (or more) before the trade deadline. However, the impact in category leagues has been muted for most of his career, so fantasy managers should not expect too much. Ellis and Schröder did not offer consistent fantasy value in Sacramento, and that may not change in Cleveland, even with Darius Garland sidelined by a toe injury.
The Kings and Cavaliers won’t play their first game of Week 16 until Wednesday, so that may be enough time to get the new players settled. As for the Bulls, they visit the Bucks on Tuesday, and (if available) Šarić could be called on immediately due to injuries to Jalen Smith and Zach Collins. However, this does not make him fantasy-relevant.
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– Avoid the Cavaliers during Week 16.
Speaking of Cleveland, they’ve got the “worst” Week 16 schedule, as they only play twice. Of course, no fantasy manager should consider dropping Jaylon Tyson because of the poor schedule. But is Sam Merrill worth holding onto for his three-point production? The answer to that question shouldn’t be focused solely on the schedule, but that is something that fantasy managers will have to consider. Freeing up that roster spot to have some flexibility for Monday and Tuesday’s games would be a good idea for some fantasy managers.
– Detroit is the only team that doesn’t play on Saturday or Sunday.
Not only do the Pistons play three games in Week 16, but they’ll be done following Friday’s showdown with the Knicks. So, it may be decision time for some fantasy managers regarding Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris or Isaiah Stewart. And with the trade deadline landing on Thursday, the same day as the Pistons’ game against the Wizards, the schedule may look even worse if Detroit were to make a move. Having to deal with a one-game week would be rough for any fantasy manager, even if the player(s) in question may be productive in only a few categories.
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– Washington will play games on Saturday and Sunday.
The Wizards’ back-to-back to end Week 16 will affect how some of their players are viewed in fantasy basketball. By now, people understand the deal with Middleton, and he’s rostered in a low percentage of leagues already. But what about Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, the two currently healthy Wizards on the highest percentage of Yahoo! league rosters? Bilal Coulibaly has also dealt with injuries this season. The good news is that all three were available for both games of Washington’s most recent back-to-back. Hopefully, that remains the case for the end of Week 16.
