Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 1 scores, projections, matchups

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicks off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Eagles.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Report, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns below. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

DAL-PHI | KC-LAC | TB-ATL | CIN-CLE | MIA-IND | CAR-JAX | LV-NE | ARI-NO
PIT-NYJ | NYG-WAS | TEN-DEN | SF-SEA | DET-GB | HOU-LAR | BAL-BUF | MIN-CHI

Projected score: Eagles 30, Cowboys 22

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens

Fantasy scoop: The Dallas backfield is one the biggest head-scratchers in fantasy. Javonte Williams is fully expected to operate as the lead back in the opener, but he has struggled with efficiency in recent seasons and has yet to deliver a top-25 fantasy campaign on a per-game basis. Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue also figure to see some run and either could quickly emerge as the “hot hand.” Especially in what projects as a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that allowed the second-lowest EPA against the run last season, this is a situation best avoided.

Shadow Report: Dallas will be without four depth corners this week and, more importantly, could be missing Trevon Diggs (knee). If Diggs is out, it’s possible Dallas chooses to shadow Brown with DaRon Bland, but it likely won’t be full time, as Bland might be needed in the slot. Regardless, the likes of Brown and DeVonta Smith would be working plenty against Kaiir Elam, seventh-round rookie Trikweze Bridges and 2024 UDFA Reddy Steward (zero career snaps). Upgrade the Philly pass attack.

Over/under: 52 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Eagles 74% (2nd highest)

Projected score: Chiefs 26, Chargers 23