Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 7 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 7, which kicks off Thursday with the Steelers at the Bengals.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including start/sit, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, start/sit advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

PIT-CIN | LAR-JAC | NO-CHI | MIA-CLE | NE-TEN | LV-KC
PHI-MIN | CAR-NYJ | NYG-DEN | IND-LAC | WAS-DAL | GB-ARI | ATL-SF | TB-DET| HOU-SEA

Projected score: Steelers 29, Bengals 17

Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Ja’Marr Chase, DK Metcalf

Fantasy scoop: Following a slow start to the season, Chase Brown has had a role reduction in recent weeks. During his first four games, Brown played 68% of the offensive snaps and handled 78% of the designed runs. Over the past two games, Brown played 53% of the snaps and handled 59% of the runs, out-snapping only Samaje Perine 64-56 in the span. Brown sits seventh among backs in targets and receptions, but he hasn’t cleared 10 carries in a game since Week 2, nor has he scored more than 13.1 fantasy points in a single outing this season. Perhaps Joe Flacco will get Brown rolling in time (Browns RBs were terrific as a whole during Flacco’s time in Cleveland), but Brown is no more than an uninspiring flex option this week against a solid Steelers run defense.

Shadow Report: DJ Turner II is a good bet to shadow Metcalf this week. Turner has emerged as the Bengals’ top corner, having traveled with Travis Hunter (Hunter scored 5.2 fantasy points in the game), Justin Jefferson (12.5), Courtland Sutton (19.1), Jameson Williams (1.9) and Romeo Doubs (10.5). Turner has done a decent job, with six of the top seven WR performances against the Bengals having come from players he didn’t shadow. Expectations for Metcalf can be lowered very slightly, whereas Pittsburgh’s secondary targets can be upgraded against a defense that has given up the third-most yards, sixth-most TDs (12) and the sixth-highest EPA against the pass.

Over/under: 45.9 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Steelers 89% (second highest)

Projected score: Rams 23, Jaguars 19

Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne Jr., Davante Adams, Brian Thomas Jr.

Fantasy scoop: One of fantasy’s biggest busts through five weeks of the season, Thomas got back on track with an 8-90-1 receiving line on 10 targets against the Seahawks last Sunday. Thomas’ 23.0 fantasy points were his most since Week 17 of last season and more than double his previous season high (12.0 in Week 5). Thomas’ playing time and target share haven’t changed, but his connection with QB Trevor Lawrence has improved dramatically (28% catch rate in Weeks 1-3 to a 74% catch rate during Weeks 4-6). Thomas might not return to his WR1 production level of 2024, but he’s back in the WR2 mix, and that includes this week despite a tough matchup against a good Rams defense that has given up the fourth-lowest EPA against the pass.

Over/under: 42.2 (14th highest)
Win probability: Rams 63% (seventh highest)

Projected score: Bears 25, Saints 18

Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, D’Andre Swift, Chris Olave, Rome Odunze

Fantasy scoop: Fantasy’s No. 2-scoring tight end through three weeks, Juwan Johnson has cooled dramatically, sitting 39th in points since Week 4. Johnson totaled 28 targets during the first three games (24% share) but has only nine in three games since (11%), the latter total allowing him 60 yards and zero TDs on seven catches. Johnson has never cleared a 14% target share in a season, so especially with Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau back, he’s unlikely to get enough consistent volume to return TE1 fantasy value.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Chicago’s receivers against a New Orleans pass defense that has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers (third most to the perimeter) as well as the fourth-highest EPA against the pass. Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus (who inexplicably has more targets than Moore this season) get the boost over Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor and Quincy Riley.

Over/under: 43.5 (12th highest)
Win probability: Bears 75% (fourth highest)

Projected score: Dolphins 24, Browns 22

Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Quinshon Judkins, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy scoop: Judkins posted the first major dud of his career in Week 6, managing 36 yards on 12 touches. It was his worst fantasy showing since he produced 10.1 points in his NFL debut. Judkins was limited by game script (41% snap share and 12 carries) but also a nonexistent passing-game role that’s becoming more concerning by the week. Judkins’ route participation is a lowly 22% on the season and, after getting zero targets Sunday, he has had either zero or one target in three of the past four games. Judkins is running the ball well (4.6 YPC), but his Derrick Henry-like usage in an offense struggling to score touchdowns is going to continue to limit his fantasy output. The good news is that he has an elite Week 7 matchup against a Miami defense that has given up 5.6 yards per carry (second highest) and the most scrimmage yards to RBs this season. Both Rico Dowdle (32.4) and Kimani Vidal (22.8) have produced big fantasy days against Miami over the past two weeks. Judkins is a solid RB2 option this week.

Shadow Report: Rasul Douglas figures to shadow Jerry Jeudy. Having quickly emerged as Miami’s top corner, Douglas shadowed Garrett Wilson in Week 4 (Wilson scored 20.2 fantasy points) and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5 (10.2). Miami hasn’t faced much pass volume (fourth-fewest WR targets) but has struggled with efficiency (second-highest EPA against the pass), so this is an upgrade for Cleveland’s passing game, including Jeudy.

Over/under: 46.2 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 58% (ninth highest)

Projected score: Patriots 27, Titans 16

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: Do we have a new lead back in Tennessee? After what we saw in Week 6, it’s certainly possible. Tyjae Spears out-snapped Tony Pollard 35 to 25, and though Pollard doubled him up in carries (10 to 5), Spears ran more routes (22 to 12) and was targeted more often (5 to 2). Granted, Pollard is not fully to blame for Tennessee’s struggling offense, but even with heavy volume, he hasn’t moved the needle much this season, nor has he been a fantasy factor (under 14 fantasy points in all six games). Spears, meanwhile, produced 50 yards on nine touches in Week 6, which was only his second outing of the season. There’s some uncertainty here following the team’s coaching change from Brian Callahan (fired on Monday) to Mike McCoy, so this is a situation best avoided for now, especially against a Patriots defense that has given up 3.1 yards per carry (second lowest) to RBs. Only one RB (De’Von Achane in Week 2) has cleared 13.1 fantasy points against New England this season.

Over/under: 43 (13th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 86% (third highest)

Projected score: Chiefs 29, Raiders 17

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Ashton Jeanty, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Jakobi Meyers, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Rice is back from suspension, and this week’s game marks his first outing since he was injured in Week 4 of last season. Rice has been a fantasy superstar since taking on a substantial role midway through his rookie season in 2023. During that span (nine regular-season games), Rice is averaging 19.5 fantasy PPG. In three full games last season, he handled a massive 36% target share (10.7 per game) and averaged 21.6 PPG (17-plus in all three). It’s possible Rice is limited slightly in his return, but especially in the league’s pass-heaviest offense, that’s not enough to keep him on your bench. Rice and Worthy should both be in lineups against a Raiders defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers.

Fantasy scoop: With Brock Bowers still sidelined, Michael Mayer stepped in and paced the Raiders with seven targets last week. Mayer, who played a career-high 91.2% of the snaps, turned the heavy usage into 50 yards and one TD on five receptions. That worked out to a career-high 16.0 fantasy points. Bowers will remain out this week and Mayer’s Week 6 usage and production are enough to allow streaming consideration against the Chiefs.

Over/under: 46 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 90% (highest)

Projected score: Vikings 23, Eagles 22

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert

Fantasy scoop: Goedert is off to an elite start to the season, and though there’s enough here for weekly TE1 consideration, sustainability is a concern. On the plus side, the veteran tight end has already matched a career high with five TDs (all of which have come in his past four games) and has soaked up a team-high 20 targets across his past two outings. On the other hand, Goedert is certainly headed for regression, as his five scores are well above his 2.1 expected TD total (he has one end zone target) and he has cleared 45 yards in one game. Goedert might be headed for a return to earth, but his 23% target share is nothing to sneeze at considering the inconsistency at tight end in fantasy. He’s a solid TE1 option against a Vikings defense that has given up the eighth-most catches and three TDs to tight ends.

Shadow Report: If Quinyon Mitchell (hamstring) is able to play this week, expect him to travel with Jefferson. Mitchell has traveled in all six games, including matchups with George Pickens (3.5 fantasy points in the game), Hollywood Brown (8.0), Davante Adams (14.6), Emeka Egbuka (20.1) and Courtland Sutton (17.9). He also shadowed Wan’Dale Robinson on Thursday before leaving the game. The Eagles have faced a lot of volume (second-most WR targets faced) but have been effective (58% catch rate is fourth lowest and 7.0 YPT is third lowest against WRs). If Mitchell plays, Jefferson will have a tougher matchup than usual, whereas Jordan Addison can be upgraded against Adoree’ Jackson. If Mitchell is out, upgrade Minnesota’s perimeter receivers against Jackson and Kelee Ringo.

Shadow Report: Downgrade the Eagles receivers against a rested Vikings pass defense that has given up the fewest receptions, yards and fantasy points to the position this season. Minnesota, which has given up the lowest EPA against the pass, will match up ex-Eagle Isaiah Rodgers, Byron Murphy Jr. and Jeff Okudah against A.J. Brown and Jahan Dotson on the boundary, with Murphy and Joshua Metellus handling DeVonta Smith in the slot.

Over/under: 44.6 (10th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 52% (14th highest)

Projected score: Panthers 24, Jets 21