As a true freshman last season, Nate Frazier announced his presence to the world in the opening game versus Clemson. He resumed a backseat role when Trevor Etienne returned the following week, but found his stride as the season progressed, ending as the Bulldogs’ leading rusher. Just how good can Frazier be?
Numbers
Frazier finished with 668 yards on 133 attempts (5.0 per) and eight touchdowns. The majority of those yards (464 — 69 percent) and touchdowns (seven) came in the season’s final seven games. He finished with the following PFF grades:
The 84.2 rushing grade is quite significant. It’s the highest for a Georgia true freshman running back in the PFF era, just a bit higher than Nick Chubb’s 83.2 rushing grade in his freshman year in 2014.
(A reminder 2014 was the first year of college grading. Just a guess, but I bet if Chubb’s freshman year was re-graded, it would end up near 90.0).
What’s his ceiling?
I don’t know that he does have a ceiling. Considering the names that have come through Athens over the last decade, Frazier being the highest graded as a true freshman shows just how much potential he has. Why is that the case? The skill set already in place is one reason. Plus, if he improves in the areas described below, he has multiple levels he can rise.
Vision & Quick Cuts
While backs can improve their vision with experience and confidence (e.g., Zamir White), it is often an innate talent that a player has. It’s also something that can be seen quite early, as was the case against Clemson.
Burst
In addition to the vision and quick cuts, Frazier can create big plays with his burst. It just wasn’t something he had a lot of opportunities to show. He did lead the team with eight carries of 15-plus yards, but that number was less than half of 2023 season’s leader Daijun Edwards (17 carries of 15-plus yards).
The two runs above against Clemson (40 yards) and Notre Dame (28 yards) were his two longest runs of the season.
Areas of improvement
First and foremost, take care of the football! Frazier’s three fumbles led the team and thankfully for him Arian Smith made one of the hustle plays of the season to fight for this one near the goal-line. Texas running back Jaydon Blue led the Power 4 with five fumbles, so Frazier wasn’t far behind.
Secondarily, outside of the big run against Clemson where he broke through an arm tackle, if a defender got his hands on Frazier, he often went down. He only averaged 2.81 yards after contact per attempt. While on the surface that might not appear bad, he was 95th out of 110 Power 4 running backs with at 75 carries.
Why is that number so vital, especially at Georgia? Primarily because creating yards before contact (i.e. a blocking and scheme measure) is not something Georgia has been great at doing. Over the last six seasons, only once has over 45 percent of Georgia’s rushing yards come before contact (2022 = 47 percent). The first championship season in 2021 was actually the worst during this stretch, as only 38 percent of yards were before contact.
As a team, Georgia’s 2.74 yards after contact per attempt was the lowest in the six-year span and only time it has been below 3.00.
Will another year of age and strength and conditioning help Frazier in that regard? Or does his running style lend itself to him going down easier when a defender actually does get their hands on him? We shall see.
But if Frazier is able to average around 3.50 yards after contact per attempt or better to go with the vision, cutting, and burst he’s already shown, he’ll put himself on the short list of best running backs in all of college football.
