On Dec. 31 — or thereabouts — we are going to learn which NHL players are going to spend at least two weeks in Italy representing their nations at the Olympic Games, along with knowing who will be on a beach watching those Olympics from afar.
Every nation that’s competing at the Milan-Cortina Games is expected to have its roster finalized by the Dec. 31 deadline. It’s what makes the time between now and then quite crucial, and it could play a role in the difference between potentially challenging for an Olympic medal or thinking about what that would be like.
Canada, Czechia, Finland, Sweden and the United States each have a unique set of decisions to make in the coming weeks. ESPN did its first round of projections in November for those five teams. Now comes one final set of predictions about what those five nations could do with their respective rosters.
Jump to a roster:
United States
Canada
Sweden
Finland
Czechia
United States
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Team USA is facing many uncertainties entering the Dec. 31 roster deadline, which is reflected in my roster projection.
It’s a rather lengthy conversation that starts with how much injuries could impact what Team USA does with its final roster. Adam Fox (upper body) is out for an indefinite period, and Charlie McAvoy (puck to the face) could return later this week. There is also a quartet of players recovering from long-term injuries:
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Matthew Tkachuk (sports hernia and torn adductor) resumed skating in November with the idea that he could potentially return in December.
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Jaccob Slavin (lower body) began practicing on Dec. 2 in a noncontact sweater but has not played since Oct. 11.
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Jack Hughes (finger surgery) is expected to return to the lineup around the second week of January.
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Connor Hellebuyck (knee surgery) is on a path to return by early to mid-January.
My projection takes those injuries into account, with the idea that those five players should be available for the Olympics. But there are other selection discussions that go beyond these five players.
Enter Jason Robertson.
Will he make the final cut if Team USA has a full complement of players, or is he in the mix only if there’s an injury at forward?
Robertson and his potential addition (or omission) has become a talking point because of what he has done since Nov. 5 (the date of my earlier roster projections). No player has scored more goals in that time than Robertson, and Nathan MacKinnon is the only player who has more points than Robertson within that window.
That has intensified the conversation about why Robertson should make the final roster, though there is an opposing side to the debate:
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Proponents will point out how he gives Team USA another scorer who can create for others. They’ll also note that Robertson provides the U.S. with a 6-3, 207-pound option for a tournament in which physically imposing players could play a role.
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Opponents will argue that there could be two-way players who provide more continuity in the defensive zone than Robertson. They’ll also likely present the case that Robertson is not the fastest or most technical of skaters — a detail that became one of the themes of the 4 Nations Face-Off, when it was superstar vs. superstar each shift.
Team USA general manager Bill Guerin told The Athletic in late November that Robertson is doing all he can to make a compelling case. Guerin also acknowledged that there are only so many roster spots. “And when you look at it, there’s so many guys that are close in the way they’re performing, in their statistics, in their body of work,” Guerin said then. “It could come down to fit. What do we need?”
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Jason Robertson scores on the power play for Dallas Stars
Jason Robertson capitalizes on the power play
Targeting defensibly responsible forwards was part of the blueprint Team USA used for the 4 Nations Face-Off. That approach is why there has been so much attention paid to Vincent Trocheck. He sustained an early-season upper-body injury that created questions about his place within the Team USA setup. Since returning on Nov. 10, he’s averaging 0.93 points per game. That’s the sort of production that reinforces his value as a two-way center who can anchor the fourth line and be used in numerous defensive situations.
Trocheck’s play is a contrast to his New York Rangers teammate J.T. Miller. There’s still a chance Miller could make the final roster given he is another two-way presence that can be used on the wing or down the middle. But his selection has been complicated by the fact that he’s averaging 0.62 points this season, despite having a 0.81 points-per-game career average.
That also highlights another reality facing Team USA: There is no shortage of forwards that Guerin and his staff could use to fill out those final spots:
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Tage Thompson tallies goal for Buffalo Sabres on the power play
Tage Thompson scores power-play goal vs. Flames
Having three defensemen who are injured or recovering from injuries means that the U.S. will need to stay nimble right until Dec. 31. They have some options on the blue line, too:
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Has John Carlson done enough to be in the discussion? His potential addition would give the U.S. another veteran. He has also been sixth in points among defensemen since Nov. 5.
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There are young player options, such as Lane Hutson, Luke Hughes and Jackson LaCombe, who have been logging heavy minutes over the past month. Veterans like Shayne Gostisbehere or Seth Jones could also be in play.
One area in which it appears Team USA could find continuity is goaltending. As I see it, the U.S. will retain the three goaltenders it used at the 4 Nations Face-Off: Jake Oettinger, Jeremy Swayman and Hellebuyck, in the event he’s healthy. Joey Daccord and Spencer Knight have created compelling cases for why they could pose a selection discussion (particularly if Hellebuyck’s availability is in question).
Swayman, Oettinger and Knight are fifth, sixth and seventh, respectively, in GSAA among goalies in 5-on-5 play (min. 300 minutes), per Natural Stat Trick. Daccord is 13th, and Hellebuyck, who last played Nov. 15, is 19th.
Canada
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Creating the strongest and most strategic lineup possible is the objective for every front office. This particular projection is reflective of what Canada’s front office believes it can achieve, by creating a roster that allows coach Jon Cooper to have as many options as possible at his disposal based on his game-by-game strategy.
Many of Canada’s forwards have shown they can fit within that structure: They can score, create for themselves, create for others around them and defend in ways that allow them to be trusted in any scenario.
Determining how forwards like Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, Anthony Cirelli, Seth Jarvis, Wyatt Johnston, Mark Stone and Tom Wilson fit into those plans appears to be the primary challenge facing Canada’s front office ahead of the roster deadline.
Why? Because it’s essentially choosing between having the additional personnel that fits within a proven plan, versus having players who can fit in to an altered strategy should circumstances change on the ground in Italy.
Cirelli, Jarvis and Stone are two-way players who can both score and create for teammates, but their defensive zone impact is just as crucial. Bedard and Johnston can provide instant offense, and Celebrini is a blend of both; he has shown he can perform highly in every area of the ice.
Wilson is an outlier, in that he might be the most unique forward of this group. He provides Canada with one more tall and heavy presence up front at 6-4 and 225 pounds, and also gives the team another forward who can create problems at the net front.
My projection goes with Bedard, Celebrini, Stone and Wilson to make the final roster because it is a way of getting all those items. Morgan Geekie and Bo Horvat, who could each finish with more than 50 goals this season, may give the Canadian front office some sleepless nights before the deadline.
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Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OT
Macklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks
On defense, the emphasis is on players who can possess the puck, create for others and score goals. They must be able to be used in numerous situations while logging heavy minutes.
Experience and size are two of the assets they lost with Alex Pietrangelo, who is out recovering from a long-term hip injury. My projection gives Canada five defensemen who are each taller than 6-2, with the idea that there are other options to consider, like Evan Bouchard, Jakob Chychrun, Mike Matheson and Matthew Schaefer. Canada also has 6-0 Brandon Montour to consider.
Continuity and game strategy could be the hallmark for how Canada assembles its roster. That is also what makes the situation around goaltending difficult, because there’s been a lack of continuity (and long-term strategy).
The three goalies Canada brought to the 4 Nations Face-Off — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — have had challenging 2025-26 seasons. A lower-body injury sent Hill to injured reserve in October, and he is possibly weeks away from returning. Montembeault has the worst GSAA of any goalie in the NHL in 5-on-5 play (min. 300 minutes) as of Dec. 8.
The discussion around Binnington has become a rather complicated endeavor. The St. Louis Blues struggled in the first quarter of the season, but entered Dec. 9 just two points out of a playoff spot. Part of what has made the discourse around Binnington complex is that the Blues were one of the strongest teams in the NHL in allowing the fewest scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in the first quarter. But Binnington is 53rd in save percentage — of the 57 goalies who qualify in the NHL. He has the fourth-lowest GSAA in all scenarios, and the sixth-lowest GSAA in 5-on-5 play entering Dec. 9, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Of course, one of the counters to those questions is that Binnington has a history of overcoming his inconsistencies to win important games. He had a combined .895 save percentage in December and January last season before backstopping Canada to a 4 Nations Face-Off title. He also led the Blues to a Stanley Cup win in 2019, including a clinching victory on the road in Game 7.
Binnington recently told The Canadian Press that he was “aware of what’s going on, and you want to put yourself in the best position to make that team and make it easy for the people making the decision.” He added, “At the same time, I feel like I’ve been around the league for a decent amount of time, and I know that if I control my inner world and what I need to do to feel at my best, then the rest will take care of itself.”
He made the cut (and the starting nod) in my projection, but the other two spots bring new faces. Logan Thompson entered Dec. 8 ranked first in GSAA among those with more than 10 games, and Scott Wedgewood was third, per Natural Stat Trick. Those two round out the goalie battery for Canada.
Could others like Jake Allen, Mackenzie Blackwood, Tristan Jarry and Darcy Kuemper present a case before New Year’s Eve?
Sweden
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Sweden has quite a few moving parts it must manage. The need for consistency is even more crucial upon knowing that the Dec. 31 roster deadline is quickly approaching.
Elias Pettersson is one of the players at the heart of this conversation. He faced questions at the start of the season about whether he would be a better fit at center or on the wing, considering his offensive struggles along with Sweden’s additional options down the middle. Pettersson came into Dec. 8 averaging 0.79 points per game, while on a team that is in the bottom third of the NHL in goals per game. He also missed the Canucks’ past two games with a lower-body injury.
It has all led to a discussion about who makes the most sense at second-line center between Elias Lindholm, Mika Zibanejad and Pettersson. Lindholm returned from a lower-body injury and scored eight points in his first eight games back, averaging 0.85 points per game for the season. Zibanejad averaged 0.78 points per game through his first 31 games and came into Dec. 8 as the second-highest scoring center in terms of points among Swedes.
I’ve got Zibanejad centering the second line, with Lindholm in the middle of the third and Pettersson on the wing.
Deliberating between those three — with the idea that Joel Eriksson Ek can anchor the fourth line — also comes as Sweden awaits news on William Karlsson. He sustained a lower-body injury in mid-November that led to him being moved to long-term injured reserve on Dec. 6. Karlsson makes the final roster in this projection, with the idea he could be an extra forward who can play down the middle or on the wing.
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Elias Pettersson scores while falling down for Canucks
Elias Pettersson nets an impressive goal while falling onto the ice to give the Canucks a 2-1 lead over the Sharks.
Sweden has seen progress in other areas of the lineup. Gabriel Landeskog went from three points in his first 12 games to having nine points in 13 games in November. Two-way veteran forward Marcus Johansson is averaging 0.69 points per game, one of the strongest offensive campaigns of any Sweden player.
This could result in Sweden’s front office having a difficult decision to make when it comes to finalizing its forward group. Among those left off my roster, Andre Burakovsky, William Eklund and Emil Heineman have each made cases, and Rickard Rakell could also be under consideration despite the fact that he broke his hand in mid-November and is expected to return around mid-January.
The only injury concern facing Sweden’s blue line was Victor Hedman, who returned on Dec. 6 after a nearly monthlong absence. And in fact, my projected roster here has Sweden taking the same D group it used at the 4 Nations Face-Off, plus Hampus Lindholm.
Who’s making a late push? Oliver Ekman-Larsson had the most points of any Swedish defenseman this season entering Dec. 8, and Philip Broberg was fourth in average minutes played among Swedish defensemen. Simon Edvinsson and Adam Larsson could also be in the mix.
Now comes the most interesting question facing Sweden: Is Minnesota Wild rookie Jesper Wallstedt going to Milan-Cortina?
As of Dec. 8, Wallstedt is in the top three in the NHL in GSAA, goals-against average and save percentage among goalies with more than 10 games played. He has worked in tandem with fellow Swede Filip Gustavsson to create one of the best duos in the NHL. I’m sending both Gustavsson and Wallstedt to Italy.
Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark have not fared up to expectation this season. Both entered Dec. 8 carrying save percentages below .880. Ullmark’s performance is particularly puzzling; the Ottawa Senators are among the top five teams in the NHL in fewest scoring chances allowed per 60, fewest high-danger chances allowed per 60 and fewest shots allowed per 60, and the former Vezina Trophy winner’s save percentage is a career-low .877.
Finland
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Finland continues to encounter an extra degree of difficulty when building its roster, because there seems to be some sort of new injury on a near-weekly basis.
It started with Aleksander Barkov tearing his ACL and MCL in training camp. That was followed by Kaapo Kakko, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Rasmus Ristolainen all missing the start of the regular season with injuries.
Kakko returned on Nov. 1, got injured on Nov. 13 and returned again on Nov. 29. Luukkonen has remained mostly healthy, and Philadelphia Flyers coach Rick Tocchet provided a timeline on Dec. 3 for Ristolainen’s potential return, saying, “It’s not a month and it’s not a week.” There’s also the fact that Juuso Valimaki, who was on Finland’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster but didn’t play, sustained a knee injury that required surgery last season and has yet to play this season.
Adding on to that list, Patrik Laine underwent core surgery in late October. He’ll miss three to four months, with his earliest return being Jan. 25. That would give him a five-game window to get ready for the Olympics if he’s named to the final roster. Mikael Granlund (lower body), Eetu Luostarinen (burns from a grilling accident) and Jesperi Kotkaniemi (ankle) were each on IR at various points this season and returned during the first weekend of December. Olli Maatta (upper body) has been out of the lineup since mid-November.
My roster projection takes those injuries into account, with the premise that everyone except Barkov and potentially Laine should be fully healthy when Finland’s front office submits its final roster on Dec. 31. It’s possible Finland could select Laine, but that puts a lot of faith in a five-game window after a major surgery being enough preparation for the Olympics.
Juggling that many injury concerns — with the reality that there could be even more in the coming weeks — has made depth even more imperative. Finland has forwards like Matias Maccelli and Aatu Raty who didn’t make the cut in my projection, but either could make the final cut or be called upon should another injury arise.
Unfortunately, the harsh reality is that 13 of the 28 Finnish forwards who have played a game in the NHL this season had five points or fewer entering Dec. 9. It’s the sort of dynamic that could prompt Finland’s front office to consider Finnish players who aren’t in the NHL, such as Jesse Puljujarvi.
It’s a similar situation with Finland’s defense. Finland has had only seven defensemen who have played a game in the NHL this season.
Czechia
Note: Players in bold were the first six selected.
Like its Finnish counterparts, Czechia’s front office is trying to figure out how it can piece together its best possible roster while navigating injuries. And as noted above with Puljujarvi, Czechia may also rely upon quite a few personnel currently playing in Europe.
Filip Chytil, who has had his career interrupted by injuries, sustained an upper-body injury this season that has kept him on IR since Oct. 20. He resumed skating in mid-November but a timeline has not been given for his return. Jiri Kulich remains out indefinitely with blood clots, while Tomas Nosek continues to recover from a knee injury with the expectation he will miss the Olympics. Czechia’s front office is also monitoring Michal Kempny’s status after he sustained an injury on Nov. 27 while playing in Sweden, with no reported timetable for his return.
Chytil and Kempny are included on my roster because there appears to be enough of a runway for them to prepare for the Olympics. If not, that would leave Czechia seeking another forward to fill its top nine while also losing one of its top six defensemen.
Certain portions of Czechia’s projected roster is in flux. Czechia has seen players like Adam Klapka get more playing time this season, while others like Ondrej Palat are playing every game but struggling. Palat is projected to finish with a career-low 14 points in an 82-game season.
Another player who has struggled this season is David Tomasek. He averaged 1.21 points per game playing in Sweden last season, but his transition to the NHL has been difficult, with five points through his first 19 games. There’s also the possibility that David Kampf could factor into the discussion now that he’s consistently playing games in the NHL again.
All of the above is what has made the performances of those playing in Europe even more important toward creating the strongest Czechia roster. There are forwards like Ondrej Beranek, Filip Chlapik, Ondrej Kase, Michael Spacek and Matej Stransky who are having strong seasons. Jan Kostalek and Libor Zabransky provide another set of options on defense. Kostalek has 27 points in 28 games. Zabransky had 11 goals and 21 points and is second in average ice time through his first 29 games in the Extraliga this season.
Czechia also has some deliberating to do with its goalies beyond Lukas Dostal. The conversation started gaining momentum when rookie Jakub Dobes won his first six starts this season while posting a .930 save percentage. However, he has gone 4-4-2 in 10 games since, with a save percentage below .900 in six of those contests.
Dostal and Dan Vladar are both in the top 22 of GSAA among goalies with 300 minutes or more played this season. Karel Vejmelka is 42nd and Dobes is 44th entering Dec. 9, according to Natural Stat Trick. So I give the slight edge to Vejmelka in this final projection.
