The Patriots defense put on a dominant performance in a snowy AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos and backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, while the Seahawks battled till the end in a nail-biter with the Los Angeles Rams — their NFC West rivals. The Seahawks are early favorites, but there’s a lot to break down in this rematch of Super Bowl XLIX.
Our betting analysts have you covered with their first bets for Super Bowl LX.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds are accurate as of time of publish.
Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, 6:30 p.m., NBC
Money Line: Seahawks (-225); Patriots (+185)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 46.5
Kenneth Walker III 21-plus receiving yards (-111)
Ben Solak: Walker has been used consistently as a receiver in the Seahawks’ biggest games of the year, and now with Zach Charbonnet shelved for the postseason, has a larger chunk of the early down routes available to him. Expect the Patriots to aggressively blitz Sam Darnold in the hope of eliciting his worst play, and when the pressure packages come, the back gets involved as a quick outlet option. Walker’s explosive playmaking potential also lends itself to this number.
Kenneth Walker III OVER 20.5 receiving yards (-111)
Liz Loza: Walker has gone over 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games, including at least 29 receiving yards during each postseason outing. The Patriots gave up an average of nearly 31 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs during the season, as well as 22 receiving yards to Denver’s rookie back in the team’s conference championship effort. New England’s defense figures to pressure Darnold, allowing for a number of short passes to Walker (give me the easy over on 2.5 catches), who should flirt with 30 receiving yards at Levi’s Stadium.
Seahawks -4.5
Seth Walder: After watching the two conference championship games, if it feels like the Seahawks are in a completely different class of football team than the Patriots — you’re not wrong. I’m not saying that because of just these two games (including a half of one that, to be fair, was in extreme weather), but because of what these two teams have done on a down-to-down basis for the entire season.
I’m basing this view off ESPN’s FPI, which has judged these teams based on exactly that — while considering the quality of opponent — and entered Sunday viewing the Seahawks as being a full four points better than the Patriots. What transpired Sunday only increased my confidence in Seattle, particularly because the part of the team that concerned me most (Darnold after his rough second half of the season!) was a huge reason why they won.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8-plus receptions (+121)
Eric Moody: Smith-Njigba was superb against the Rams in the NFC Championship, catching 10 of 12 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. The rapport between him and Darnold is undeniable. He has had at least eight receptions in 11 of 19 games and is averaging 9.4 targets per game this season. While the Patriots’ secondary is formidable, the volume should still be there, setting Smith-Njigba up to rack up receptions.
OVER 46.5
Pam Maldonado: New England can score without explosive plays. Seattle can score because they do create explosives. Both defenses thrive on takeaways, which shortens the field and inflates totals. Super Bowls tighten early — but can always open late. One short field per side gets past the number.
Rhamondre Stevenson 25-plus receiving yards (+120)
Matt Bowen: The Seahawks played Cover 2 (two-deep zone) on 33.1% of opponent dropbacks this season, the most in the league. Limit the vertical throws and force the ball underneath — that creates opportunity for Stevenson as a check down/screen target for quarterback Drake Maye. And including the playoffs, Stevenson has had 25 or more receiving yards in five of his last eight games.
Milton Williams UNDER 0.25 sacks (-204)
Walder: OK, it’s not the most thrilling first Super Bowl bet to make. But it is fitting with my general betting ethos: build models and bet off those models. And this is the one bet that immediately stands out from my best-performing model: player-level sacks. Williams is coming off a remarkable season in which he recorded a 13.0% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle, which would have ranked sixth had he qualified. But even still: defensive tackles just earn sacks at a much lower rate, and Williams exemplified this with 5.5 sacks in 15 games even while playing well.
Add in that the Seahawks are a run-leaning team and that Darnold has been a shade better than average at sack avoidance, and this price is just too good to pass up.
