What an NBA season we’ve been treated to so far!
With the NBA Cup past us — congrats to the Knicks! — we’re inching closer to the turn of the calendar. As such, it’s about that time we seriously start considering All-Star selections. All-Star voting officially opened Wednesday, giving us an opportunity to highlight some of the tremendous seasons taking place right now.
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In case you need the reminder, we’ll have a new All-Star format this season as the NBA attempts to breathe life into its premier showcase game on Feb. 15. We will see the introduction of a Team USA vs. Team World format, but with a bit of a twist.
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There will be three teams of eight players (24 total, no positional limit) involved in a round-robin mini-tournament. Among the player pool, 12 must come from each conference.
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The teams will play each other once — Team A vs. Team B, the winner facing Team C in the second game, then the loser of Team A vs Team B facing Team C in the third game — with each game consisting of a 12-minute period.
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The top two teams will play each other in the championship game. If the initial three games end with each team having a 1-1 record, the tiebreaker will be the overall point differential.
(Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Last month, I took an all-encompassing view of what the All-Star teams — and the three-team constructions — may look like. For this piece, I want to focus on the potential first-time selections. The only thing more exciting than a new All-Star format is a group of newbies entering the fray for the first time. A couple of notes before we get rollin’ and scrollin’:
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While there isn’t an official games-played minimum for All-Star festivities, I personally use it as a consistent guardrail since I’m keeping tabs for award selections anyway. A 65-of-82 limit comes out to roughly 79% of games played; the league average for games played right now is about 27, meaning players would need to have appeared in at least 20 contests for me through Dec. 19. It’s why honorable mentions from last month’s piece, like Aaron Gordon (13 games) and Stephon Castle (17 games), or guys like OG Anunoby (17 games) won’t appear here.
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For this piece, I’ve separated players into three categories. The “Clear Your Schedule” group are essentially the locks — or at least, players I feel should be locks. The “Stay Ready” group consists of players who are on the bubble — I can make arguments for them, but could also see them losing out to bigger names, their own teammates, or both. The “Make Sure Your Vacation Is Refundable” group is a tier below that — really good seasons that I don’t expect to be rewarded, but I’ll leave the “injury replacement” or “Team World needs someone” doors cracked open.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
EAST
Clear Your Schedule: Jalen Duren (DET), Jalen Johnson (ATL)
Duren is, figuratively and literally, at the center of the East-leading Detroit Pistons’ success this year. Boasting a career-best 18 points (62.9% on 2s), 11 rebounds (career-best 4.2 offensive rebounds), 0.9 steals and 1 block, Duren has leveled up in important ways on both ends of the floor.
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Duren’s screen-setting has made life easier for MVP candidate Cade Cunningham. His decision-making in space has popped as well; whenever Cunningham draws a second defender, Duren has more consistently taken advantage of those opportunities with quicker processing as a passer (shoutout the dump-offs and lobs to Ausar Thompson) and improvement as a short-roll scorer. He’s quietly making 53% of his floater-range shots this season, and he’s been one of the league’s most effective drivers (1.18 PPP on 80 drives, per GeniusIQ tracking data) when he’s put his head down.
On top of that, Duren has grown into a legitimately positive defender. When asked to drop back in coverage, there’s a bit more nuance and understanding to the space he gives and when he decides to take that away with handplay or full commitments. He’s more often asked to defend at the level of screens, where his athleticism more readily shines. The Pistons are allowing a sturdy 0.8 points per possession on trips featuring a ball screen defended by Duren; only the Rockets’ Steven Adams has produced a lower figure (0.796), and that’s with Duren outpacing him by 200 reps (513 to 313) to this point.
As for Johnson, it’s hard to express how much fun it’s been to watch him 1) build on the All-Star campaign he was establishing last season before injuries derailed it, and 2) grow as a legitimate offensive engine.
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The box-score numbers speak for themselves: 23.6 points (57/39/82 splits; 62% true shooting), 10.5 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.6 steals. He and Nikola Jokić are the only two players averaging at least 20-10-8-1 this season — pretty good company, if you ask me!
Beyond the “what” is the “how” of Johnson’s game. He’s been empowered more as a grab-and-go threat, and the Hawks have done well to move him around the board as an early ball-screen initiator, high-post hub, and even a recipient of off-ball screens to get him head starts as a driver. From there, his (late) jump passing, budding midrange jumper (41% on middies, up from 37% last season) and bulldozer drives have popped all season.
He more than held down the fort without Trae Young, who made his return on Thursday night after missing 22 games with a knee sprain. If Johnson isn’t firmly Atlanta’s best player yet, he’s at least established himself as the Hawks’ most important player moving forward.
Stay Ready: Norm Powell (MIA), Franz Wagner (ORL)
Powell put together a fringe All-Star case last season with the Los Angeles Clippers and has leveled up again with the Miami Heat. In their wide-open offense, Powell is averaging career highs in points (24.4 on 54/43/86 splits), rebounds (3.8) and assists (2.5). Though the Heat have notably cut down their screening usage this year, they’ve been smart to weaponize Powell with a mix of handoffs, regular pindowns and staggered screens to get him shots — or driving opportunities — with a head start.
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This isn’t the space to have a Wagner vs Paolo Banchero debate, but I think it’s fair to note that Wagner (who is currently out with a high ankle sprain) has at least been the most consistent of the two this year — and #TheThing is happening again. Wagner’s box-score averages are strong again: 22.7 points (54/36/82 splits), career-best 6.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals. His drives and early transition seals in particular have been big parts of the Magic’s paint-heavy attack, and he’s an underrated part of Orlando’s top-10 defense.
Make Sure Your Vacation Is Refundable: Josh Giddey (CHI), Michael Porter Jr. (BKN)
The Bulls have fallen off the proverbial cliff after an entertaining (and impressive) 6-1 start. Still, Giddey is in the midst of a career year. He’s one of three players — Jokić and Johnson being the others — currently averaging at least 20 points (20.3), 9 rebounds (9.4), and 8 assists (8.9), and he’s still knocking down 3s at career-best efficiency (40.4%) and volume (4.8 attempts). The Australian having Team World eligibility could open a door for him.
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In more of the injury replacement realm, could I quickly highlight the season Michael Porter Jr. is having in Brooklyn? He’s averaging nearly 26 points per game while shooting the leather off the ball (39.6% on 9.2 attempts), and I’ve really enjoyed the way head coach Jordi Fernandez has utilized him to this point. He’s done a great job of scheming around Porter Jr.’s on-ball limitations, instead moving him around the board as an off-ball weapon — and helping him develop great two-man chemistry with Nicolas Claxton, another guy having an under-the-radar breakout.
WEST
Clear Your Schedule: Austin Reaves (LAL), Chet Holmgren (OKC)
The Reaves case is an easy one to make, at least today: he’s right at the 21-game threshold for me. Still, in light of LeBron James missing the beginning of the season, and Luka Dončić missing a handful of contests, Reaves leveling up to this degree should be celebrated.
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Before suffering a calf strain, Reaves was having the season of his life: 27.8 points (61/37/88 splits), 5.6 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 1 steal per game. He found a new level of command offensively, balancing full-steam drives with more off-tempo ones to keep defenders off balance — and thus, making it easier for them to fall susceptible to Reaves’ deep foul-drawing bag. The playmaking has perked up, and his growing comfort as an off-the-dribble 3-point threat — this is the first season he’s taken more 3s off the bounce than off the catch — has made him one of the league’s best offensive players.
While we’re on offensive leaps, I’d like to toss Holmgren’s hat into the ring. It’s a career year for Holmgren, averaging a shade under 19 points in 29 minutes. He’s draining over 40% of his 3s for the first time in his career, but I’ve been more impressed with his work inside the arc. He’s more comfortable and effective as a driver, and the midrange shot-making from him — 53% on the season, per Cleaning The Glass — has been outstanding and timely. Add in his defensive chops and the fact he’s putting this season together on one of the best (regular-season) teams in NBA history; I’d be shocked if he wasn’t a lock.
Stay Ready: Jamal Murray (DEN)
I suppose there’s some potential for Murray being a “West is deep” casualty if the Nuggets slide from the 2-seed to the 4-seed, but I’d also be surprised if he ultimately doesn’t make it — especially considering his Team World eligibility. Murray’s been awesome this season, boasting career-highs in points (25.2), rebounds (4.3), and assists (6.6). He’s never shot this well (45.6%) or this much from deep (7.3 attempts), but the drives have really stood out to me. Among 53 players to log at least 200 drives so far this year, only three have produced more efficient offense on a per-possession basis than Murray (1.17).
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Make Sure Your Vacation Is Refundable: Deni Avdija (POR)
It’s pretty easy to make an All-Star case for Avdija. In what has easily been the best season of his career, the sixth-year swingman is averaging 25.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists for an injured-but-pesky Blazers group. Jokić, Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the only other players averaging at least 25-7-6 this year.
Avdija leads the league in drives (527) and is producing elite offense (1.10 PPP) on those forays due to his finishing ability and (understandably annoying) foul-drawing craft. In light of the injuries and lack of reliable shooting around him, the Blazers have needed every one of those drives. It helps explain why they’re a slight positive with Avdija on the floor, but fall off a cliff whenever he goes to the bench.
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Between the depth of the conference, the Blazers’ current record (11-16, half a game ahead of Dallas for 10th), and the looming LeBron All-Star case — he hasn’t played (well) enough for top-12 status this year, but he’s LeBron James in what could possibly be his last All-Star appearance — I have my doubts about Avdija’s case.
