By Gary Pearson, BetMGM
Will the New York Rangers’ poor puck luck continue, and can the Pittsburgh Penguins maintain their dream start? Are the Anaheim Ducks for real, and will the real Linus Ullmark please stand up?
And is Steve Yzerman’s seemingly fruitless project in Detroit finally destined to take the next step?
I answer those questions while weighing in on whether the aforementioned NHL teams will make the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Ottawa Senators (Yes) (-120)
The Senators had a rocky start to the season. Yet, they are right in the mix despite losing five of the first seven games and seeing their former Vezina-winning goaltender sport the worst goals saved above expected (minus-8.1).
Linus Ullmark, as he did last season, should improve. As importantly, the Sens will get their heart and soul back in the next month. If they remain within reach when Brady Tkachuk returns from injury, their playoff chances will be in good shape.
Detroit Red Wings (Yes) (+105)
One of the pacesetters in the Atlantic Division, the Detroit Red Wings have flown out of the gate. Eight of their first nine wins came against playoff teams from last season, five of which have short Stanley Cup odds and are among the Stanley Cup favorites.
Their electric start comes despite having the fourth-worst goals differential above expected at 5-on-5. I expect a positive regression in that respect, which should reinforce their playoff pedigree.
The +105 odds imply a 48.78 percent chance of advancing to the dance.
Anaheim Ducks (No) (-150)
I don’t recall this much buzz emitting from Anaheim since the original naming of the franchise. Sitting pretty atop the Pacific Division with the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights, the Ducks’ odds to make the playoffs have shortened to +125.
While the seventh-youngest team (26.92 years) deserves all of their early-season plaudits, inexperience will catch up to them over the course of a long, gruelling season. I’m also cognizant of the fact that seven of their opening 11 games were against non-playoff teams from last season.
Pittsburgh Penguins (No) (Odds)
When will the bubble burst for rookie coach Dan Muse?
The Penguins are off to a start resembling the script of a Disney fairy tale. Look beyond their win-loss record, though, and you’ll unearth some disconcerting signs.
Until recently, the Pens had the third-best goals differential above expected, which has since dropped to 12th at 5-on-5.
Currently, they have the fourth-best goals against above expected in all situations (minus-9.34). I can’t see the goaltending duo of Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs sustaining that elite standing, nor do I believe that no-longer-a-kid Sid will finish among the league leaders in goals.
New York Rangers (Yes) (+105)
As the NHL’s second-best road team and worst in their own rink, the Rangers are navigating a perplexing dichotomy. However, I don’t foresee their Madison Square Garden horror show continuing.
With the second-best expected goals differential and the fourth-most expected goals at 5-on-5, it’s only a matter of time before their puck luck turns around.
And now that coach Mike Sullivan has adapted to life in the Big Apple, don’t be surprised when his team stops singing the blues on home ice.
Advanced
stats are according to moneypuck.com.
