Following the money: UFC 320 betting line movements tracker

UFC 320 takes place this weekend (Sat., Oct. 4, 2025) inside United Center in Chicago, IL. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira 2 for Ankalaev’s UFC Light Heavyweight title. Ankalaev won that belt from Pereira back in January.

Ankalaev is looking to repeat his win over Pereira and prove “there is no more Chama.”

UFC 320’s “Prelims” are headlined by Atelba Gautier vs. Treson Vines. Vines is coming in on four days notice for Ozzy Diaz. Also on the “Prelims” are Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Muniz and Chris Gutierrez vs. Farid Basharat.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 320 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).

UFC 320 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Magomed Ankalaev (-252 -12%) vs. Alex Pereira (+204 +17.8%)

Ankalaev opened at -180 for this fight and the public jumped all over that, bringing his line down past -250. It might be close to -300 by fight time, so if you like ‘Big Ank’, better bet on him now.

Pereira opened at +150 and that has since grown to over +200. That’s great news if you think ‘Poatan’ has at least one more KO in that fabled left hand of his.

When these two fought in January, the opening lines were reversed. Pereira opened at -170 and Anakalaev at +142. The public was smart, though, seeing this as a much closer fight and fancying Ankalaev’s chances. Their bets had these lines close at around -114 for Pereira and -106 for Anakalaev.

If the public are right again this weekend, we’re hearing “And still!” at the end of the night.

And it wouldn’t be that much of a shock if they were. The public has been right on every Ankalaev UFC fight other than that shock last second loss to Paul Craig (in a fight he dominated). For that Craig fight he opened at -140 and closed at -800. That may have been the worst bad beat in UFC history.

The public haven’t been as accurate with Pereira in the past, though. He opened at -535 against Khalil Rountree Jr., but there was enough skepticism over him that he closed at -425.

Pereira’s opening line of +150 is, surprisingly, not the longest opening line of his UFC career. He was +170 in his first fight with Israel Adesanya. His line for that fight closed at a whopping +460. Kudos to you if you won that night. He was +150 when he took on Sean Strickland as a relatively unproven UFC Middleweight. He’s also opened at plus odds in fights with Jiri Prochazka, Jan Blachowicz and in the Adesanya rematch.

Merab Dvalishvili (-410 -1.3%) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+307 +5.4%)

There’s not much movement to talk about here. Vegas loves Dvalishvili in this match-up and the public are A-OK with it, having seen Dvalishvili overwhelm strikers and wrestlers alike in the last twelve months.

In his last defense, against Sean O’Malley, Dvalishvili closed as a much more conservative favorite with -281 (pushed up a little by public doubt). In his first fight with O’Malley he actually opened at -198, but public bets flipped him to +105.

Dvalishvili’s opening line here (-385) is the shortest of his UFC career and it represents a big u-turn from Vegas when it comes to ‘The Machine’. He has the rights to call himself the Rodney Dangerfield of UFC (dated reference, much?). He opened at plus odds in his wins against Umar Nurmagomedov, Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan and Brad Katona.

Sandhagen opened at +285 for this fight, but the public have not been too interested in his underdog line. This is the longest opening line he’s had in his career. He opened at +225 for his fight with Nurmagomedov (closed at +290) and opened at +250 for his fight with Yan (closed at +240).

Jiri Prochazka (-207 +1.1%) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+168 +1.1%)

There’s been some interesting action on these lines. Prochazka and Rountree Jr. opened at virtually where they are now. However, on July 30 a lot of money came in on Rountree. His line dipped to +141 on that date with Prochazka’s line lengthening to -182. Their lines stayed like that for all of August and September. Then, on October 2 money started landing on Prochazka to force these lines back to where they started at.

Prochazka had some interesting activity in his last fight, too. He opened at -145 against Jamahal Hill, but the public faded him and he closed at +113 (before then TKOing Hill late in the fight). That fight also saw a big spike in activity, with money backing Prochazka.

Is there a whale out there who loves Prochazka fights?

Rountree had some public support in his last fight. He opened as a big +400 underdog against Pereira. Public betting brought that down a little, landing it at +360.

Josh Emmett (+366 +27%) vs. Youssef Zalal (-497 -7.1%)

The public thought Vegas were being way too close with these lines. Emmett opened at +240 with Zalal at -350. That sounds about right to me, but the public think this is a closer to being a squash match with Zalal’s line now shrinking to become one of the biggest favorites on the card.

It’s pretty familiar territory for Zalal, lately. The public have been backing him since he returned to UFC in 2024 and have been reaping the benefits. They pushed him from +122 to -115 before he submitted Billy Quarantillo in his return fight. He’s also gone from -258 to -500 before he beat Jarno Errens, -250 to -300 before he beat Jack Shore and -238 to -440 before he beat Calvin Kattar.

If the public are locked in on Zalal, and right about him here, we could see the Moroccan fighter challenging for a belt relatively soon.

In Emmett’s last fight, a decision loss to Lerone Murphy, he opened at +240 (the previous longest opening line of his career) and closed at +280.

Joe Pyfer (-256 -3.9%) vs. Abus Magomedov (+204 +13.5%)

Pyfer has been the favorite in all of his UFC fights since graduating from Contender Series. Interestingly, he opened as the underdog in both his Contender Series fights (a win over Ozzy Diaz and a loss to Dustin Stoltzfus). In his loss to Jack Hermansson, he opened at -192 and was bet down to -245.

The public were wrong about him in his last fight. He opened as -385 against Kelvin Gastelum and then closed at -360. I was one of those wrong people there, liking Gastelum to get the upset.

The public were right to back Magomedov against Michel Pereira, shrinking his underdog line slightly from +130 to +120. They were right to back him against Brunno Ferreira, too. He opened at +100 for that fight, but closed at -154. He then submitted Ferreira (after getting hurt early on).

The public were wrong back when he fought Caio Borralho, though. He opened at +285 there and closed at +250. That 2023 fight was Magomedov’s last loss in the Octagon.

UFC 320 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Ateba Gautier (-1653 -2.9%) vs. Treston Vines (+950 +27.5%)

Gautier has been a huge favorite in each of his past two proper UFC fights. And he proved why he deserved that, dispatching of Jose Medina and Robert Valentin with swift violence.

I used BestFightOdds for these numbers and the lines shown here are a mean average of lines across multiple betting sites. Gautier is -2500 on ESPN’s own betting site. He’s probably going to close as one of, if not the, biggest betting favorites in UFC history.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-315 -6.3%) vs. Andre Muniz (+246 +20.5%)

Shahbazyan has seen a lot of public backing for this bout, despite his reputation for sometimes choking late in fights. He opened at -250 and that has shortened a bunch. Muniz has seen his line, in return, grow substantially from his opening mark of +175.

The public were wrong to fade Shahbazyan in his last fight. He opened at -200 and closed at -157 against Andre Petroski, someone he took a pretty comfortable decision over. The public were wrong about him in his fight with Gerald Meerschaert, too. He opened as the -148 favorite, but closed at around -315. He then went out and looked good against Meerschaert early before getting submitted late on in the fight.

The public were wrong with Muniz in his last fight, too. He opened at +400 against Ikram Aliskerov and closed at +360. Aliskerov then TKO’d him in the first round.

Chris Gutierrez (+386 +33.1%) vs. Farid Basharat (-518 -9.7%)

Gutierrez opened at +225 but he’s now one of the bigger underdogs on the card, with BestFightOdds forecasting that he closes at around +540. Better hold of on this if you think Gutierrez will be able to hand Basharat his first pro loss.

Basharat opened as a moderate favorite at -333, but — as you can see — he’s a huge favorite now.

Sometimes you see fighters from underrepresented nations have a lot of public betting support, due to tribalism (see Ilia Topuria and Paddy Pimblett). But I doubt there’s many folks in Afghanistan putting money down on him. That could mean a lot of the money here is ‘smart money’, from betters who look beyond nationalism and really favor Basharat to rag-doll Gutierrez on Saturday.

Something similar happened in Basharat’s last fight, too, with Victor Hugo. He opened at -278 then and closed at -575. He got the win there, but didn’t have everything go his way.

Daniel Santos (-152 -21.8%) vs. JooSang Yoo (+126 +21.7%)

Santos opened at +102 and Yoo opened at -130. But, as you can see, we’ve had a flip here. The public are in total disagreement with Vegas and they think Santos, who we’ve seen more often in UFC, is better than Yoo, who has just 30 seconds of Octagon time to his name.

Interestingly, Santos had a flip on his is betting line in his last fight — against Yoo’s countryman Jeong Yeong Lee. He opened at -143 and closed at +109 before getting the unanimous decision win.

In Yoo’s last fight he had a lot of backing. He opened at -345 against Jeka Saragih and closed at -520 before his viral debut KO.

UFC 320 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Macy Chiasson (-196 +4.4%) vs. Yana Santos (+170 -1.5%)

There’s not been much movement on this line. The public seem more or less content with Chiasson as a moderate favorite over Santos.

Santos cashed as an underdog against Miesha Tate last time out. She opened at -110 for that fight, but the public flipped her to a +135 underdog.

The opposite thing happened with Chiasson in her last fight. She opened at +100 against Ketlen Veira, but the public got her to -140. She then lost.

So Vegas was right about the last fights for both women, but the public were wrong.

Patchy Mix (-313 -9.5%) vs. Jakub Wiklacz (+244 +23.5%)

The public seem to have forgiven Mix for his terrible UFC debut, where he lost (badly) to Mario Bautista despite being the -188 favorite.

Maybe that’s because no one has heard of Wiklacz, though?

Wiklacz is doing what Mix did last time out, making his UFC debut after being a champion in lower tier organization. Wiklacz has vacated his KSW Bantamweight title to be here, a belt he defended three times. KSW and the late Bellator are pretty comparable when it comes to talent at the top.

Wiklacz is younger, longer and fighting with way less pressure than Mix. I, for one, love that his line is growing by the minute.

Punahele Soriano (-329 -11.6%) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+259 +20.6%)

Soriano, who has looked great at Welterweight so far, opened at -220 and has gotten a decent amount of public support. That’s seen Veretennikov shoot up from +185 and now have a potential close range of over +300.

Soriano was actually faded by the public against Uros Medic. He opened at +135 for that fight and closed at +186. He then starched Medic in less than a minute. Vegas and the public doubted him against Miguel Baeza, too. He opened at +110 there and closed at +168. He then gave Baeza a brutal one-sided beating.

Veretennikov won a split decision over Francisco Prado in his last fight. He was the +124 underdog there (having opened at just +120).

Ramiz Brahimaj (+244 +12.8%) vs. Austen Vanderford (-309 -4.1%)

Brahimaj opened at +200 here and has seen his line grow pretty steadily. That won’t bother him, though. The public have doubted him in both of his last fights.

Against Billy Ray Goff he opened at +270 and closed all the way at +340. He then put Goff to sleep with a choke. Before that he opened at -142 but closed at +160 against Mickey Gall. He then put Gall to sleep with a punch.

Vanderford, who is still better known for who he is dating than who he is fighting, opened at +140 in his UFC debut last time out (opposite Veretennikov). He closed at +102, though, before earning the TKO win.

Veronica Hardy (-732 -4.1%) vs. Brogan Walker (+509 +26.1%)

The public have pounced on Walker here. She’s been out for two years and has opened at +350 for this fight. That’s skyrocketed and I can’t complain about it. Hardy seems to have a bit of a lay-up here, as she enjoys the shortest odds, by far, of her UFC career.

UFC 320 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 320:

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 6-39.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-10.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 2-7.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-3.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.

UFC 320 Best Underdogs Bets

There’s a couple of underdogs I like at UFC 320. My favorite of those is probably Khalil Rountree Jr. I think the patient approach we saw against Jamahal Hill could work wonders against the dangerous Jiri Prochazka and possibly bait the Czech into over committing on some offense. I also think Abus Magomedov is worth a look, due to Pyfer’s tendency to sometimes fight down to his opposition. I also like Yana Santos, since she looked good in her last fight and Macy Chiasson did not. Finally, I think Ramiz Brahimaj is very good value and has shown, twice in a row now, that he shouldn’t be counted out of a fight.

Enough about me, though, which underdogs do you like the most? Tell me in the comments below.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 320 fight card, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 320: “Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.