ST. LOUIS — It's been a while since we've seen the St. Louis Blues overhaul a roster, whether it be through trades or free agency defections.
But heading into the 2025-26 season, which will begin in roughly two months, barring any decisions between now and then, St. Louis could potentially have 10 NHL-rostered players playing the final year of his respective contract and another 11 in Springfield of the American Hockey League, giving them 21 in the organization.
With the Blues, who qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs last year for the first time in three years, continuing their — as general manager Doug Armstrong called it, a "re-whatever," let's take a look at those players going into those final-year contracts and whether we feel they are in the plans or not and what each player's next contract could look like:
* Mathieu Joseph (UFA; $2.95 million cap hit/AAV) — The veteran was acquired from the Ottawa Senators on July 2, 2024 for future considerations that carried with it two more years of a four-year contract.
The 28-year-old's numbers didn't add up to what the Blues needed from him, although the third-line energy player had his moments, particularly when given the chance; he scored in Game 7 of the Western Conference first round against the Winnipeg Jets and played well that game, but there were too many gaps between consistency and strong play.
I'm projecting Joseph to enter this season as one of the extra forwards, which wouldn't be a bad idea to have a known veteran there because of injury and what not. And he has shown flashes of when he's played well, he can be a spark in the lineup, but 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in 60 regular-season games after coming off a 35-point season (11 goals, 24 assists) in 72 games the previous year was something the Blues were hoping for more of.
With the influx of young wingers knocking on the door (Dalibor Dvorsky could very well start his NHL career on the wing), Otto Stenberg, Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, Simon Robertsson, Juraj Pekarcik to name some, I don't envision Joseph getting an extension or re-signing here in the off-season. In fact, depending on where the Blues are in the standings come trade deadline, Joseph could be a trade chip with an expiring contract.
* Dylan Holloway (RFA; $2.29M cap hit/AAV) — I can end this in one sentence: he's part of the present and future. The end.
Despite the disappointment of a left hip injury that sidelined the 23-year-old late in the regular season and the seven-game series loss against the Jets, what a terrific debut season Holloway had with the Blues with 63 points (26 goals, 37 assists) in 77 games and playing 16:49 per game after he and defenseman Philip Broberg joined the organization one year ago this month from the Edmonton Oilers, each signing an offer sheet and each getting a two-year contract.
How good does the cap hit/AAV look for the Blues if Holloway continues to accelerate his career in this manner?
But make no mistake: the No. 14 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
So what could a Holloway contract look like moving forward? Well, a couple of different ways.
Holloway will be a restricted free agent, with arbitration rights, but one wouldn't think that would have mattered in this case.
I would think the Blues would want to sign him to a long-term deal, and in doing so getting max term, whether it be seven or eight years depending on when the new ratified contract term limits go into effect, and by giving the Blues UFA-eligible years, maybe the cap hit/AAV goes up. But then again, perhaps Holloway's camp would look for a more shorter-term contract, say four years, that takes him to UFA status at 27 and hope to cash in on a larger contract then.
I'm predicting a max contract: seven or eight years (again, depending on when the new terms begin) at $7.5 AAV per season. So 7X$7.5 at $52.5 million or 8X$7.5 at $60 million, the same contract that Vladimir Tarasenko got from the Blues when he was 24 in 2015.
With the cap rising on a yearly basis, that's also something to take into consideration, and the players will surely do that. So do the sides go four years at say, $6-$6.5 million per? Perhaps.
The two sides have time to figure out when/how they want to go about this. But I wouldn't think this gets into next summer. Holloway has already proved himself to be a very worth commodity and will be a staple for years to come.
* Alexandre Texier (RFA; $2.1M cap hit/AAV) — This one probably has me stumped more than any one.
When the Blues acquired the 25-year-old from the Columbus Blue Jackets on June 28, 2024 for a fourth-round pick in 2025 and signed him to a two-year contract, it was in line with the mantra of building with early-to-mid-20s players.
But Texier played in just 31 games last season (six goals, five assists), whether it be injury, sickness or healthy scratches after playing in 77 with the Blue Jackets the previous season.
There's talent there, and the left-handed shot has exhibited it, but he simply didn't do himself any favors last season. Some his doing, some not.
If anyone needs to have a prove-it type of season, this player does more so than any. I believe this will in fact go into next summer before the Blues decide if Texier is part of their plans or not. He will be a RFA with arbitration rights, and it may get to that point. I'm not sure at present time.
Texier's key will be to try and win the coaching staff over and stay in the top 12, because right now, I see him as an extra forward. But his play could dictate that.
In the end if the Blues decide to keep him, does Texier get a shorter term contract that takes him to UFA? I believe so, and right now, I see it looking like a one- or two-year contract at an AAV if around $2 million, give or take. But only he will dictate where those numbers ultimately land.
If Texier puts up similar numbers or just can't stay in the lineup for one reason or another, the Blues could also entertain moving him closer to the deadline — depending on where they are — or move his rights in the summer if they feel there are other prospects in the organization that will ultimately need a spot on the roster.
I would monitor this one very closely. The door is still open, but it's not wide open. Which way it goes will fall into Texier's lap.
* Alexey Toropchenko (UFA; $1.7M cap hit/AAV) — This 26-year-old motor just keeps on humming … and doesn't stop.
When the 2017 fourth-round pick signed a one-year extension on Oct. 29, 2024, the Blues did it with the knowledge of exactly what they'd get.
This isn't a player they're needing — but certainly would welcome — a plethora of offense from, but you know what you're going to get from the fourth-line winger on a nightly basis: a terrific forechecker, physical player, all-out effort, energy guy.
Toropchenko dipped to four goals last season in 80 games after scoring 14 the previous season, which is probably considered an anomaly, but it wasn't for a lack of creating chances with his hard work. It came down to finishing chances.
Going into his last year before potentially becoming a UFA for the first time, I see this guy in Jim Montgomery's plans. The coach loves this player and I don't think will allow management to let him get away.
If Toropchenko hits the open market, there will be suitors for him knowing he's not going to break the bank but third/fourth-line players are hot commodities.
I think the Blues sign him for 3-4 years in the neighborhood of $2-$2.2 million per season. It would be fair market value for what the player brings and having a staple on the back of your forward group and would allow Toropchenko to get himself another nice contract when he's 30 should his progress continue.
This is a very worthy piece to hold onto and build this franchise with.
* Oskar Sundqvist (UFA; $1.5M cap hit/AAV) — Stanley Cup champion. Warrior. Loves St. Louis. Heart and soul guy. What else can you say about Sundqvist's two tenures with the Blues?
When Sundqvist signed a two-year extension on March 7, 2024, the timing couldn't have been more perfect for the player, because two weeks later, he tore his right ACL in a game against the Vegas Golden Knights and had to go through that rigorous rehab again after major surgery.
But now looms a very serious question: with one more year on his contract, do the Blues see the need to keep the 31-year-old around beyond this season?
Sundqvist missed the start of last season because of his knee injury but was able to get in 67 games and finish with 20 points (six goals, 14 assists).
Forget the numbers for one second; this is another player Montgomery loves to utilize, whether on the penalty kill, in defensive zone situations, as a net front presence on the power play when needed, at center, on the wing. This is a versatile player.
But the Blues signed Nick Bjugstad to a two-year contract starting this season, and although I have Sundqvist projected as the fourth-line center to start next season after Radek Faksa departed to re-sign with the Dallas Stars, does it get to be a glutton of forwards with prospects on the horizon?
These are the tough questions the Blues will have to ask.
With some of these prospects still a couple years away, there will be a need to keep a solid, trustworthy player like this around to hold the fort down and to help nurture some of those scratching the surface.
Sundqvist loves St. Louis so much, I'd be willing to bet he goes for one-year contracts moving forward. And I can keep seeing the AAV fall in line with what he's currently making. I don't sense Sundqvist would request a raise simply because of his affection for the organization, and if it also means being the 13th or 14th forward, so be it.
Remember when the Blues traded him to the Detroit Red Wings in 2022, how hard it was on him?
The Blues have a solid, reliable group manning the ice time among their fourth-line skaters. Those guys are invaluable.
* Nathan Walker (UFA; $775,000 cap hit/AAV) — Aussie, Aussie, Aussie. Oi, Oi, Oi.
A guy that found himself laboring to make his mark in the NHL was given the chance in the Blues organization starting in 2019 has scratched and clawed his way into a prominent role as another member of the invaluable fourth line.
The 31-year-old signed his fourth contract with the Blues on Jan. 9, 2024, getting a two-year deal and in doing so this past season, played in a career-high 73 games with a career-high 16 points (eight goals, eight assists).
Pound for pound, this might be the toughest 5-foot-9, 187-pound player around who plays much bigger that his stature. Perhaps think of a miniature Toropchenko. Maybe that's why they have such good chemistry and get along so well.
Again, like Sundqvist and Toropchenko, these are the kinds of players Montgomery likes and needs … and wants to keep around.
When I look at the Blues' prospect pool, it's hard to find anyone on the horizon that can play with this kind of versatility, someone who plays physical, kills penalties, has the ability to play wing or move to center if needed. Many of the Blues' up-and-comers are more suited for roles up in the lineup.
Walker has been a prove-it guy throughout his NHL career, and I see no reason to think he won't play that way this season knowing he's looking for more security.
I see Walker getting a one- or two-year contract in the $775,000-$1 million range to continue to offer stability to the bottom fourth-line group.
* Philip Broberg (RFA; $4.58M cap hit/AAV) — That first line I used for Holloway … apply it here.
When Armstrong made two offer sheets, he wasn't doing so to go 1-for-2. He was looking to hit a home run in each instance, and did.
Here is a defenseman that shattered his previous NHL highs when he finished with 29 points (eight goals, 21 assists) in 69 games while playing 20:30 per game and 22:07 in the playoffs.
Broberg was a mainstay playing with Justin Faulk and moving forward, that standing will not change. As a matter of fact, it will likely grow.
But like Holloway, Broberg signed for two years as well and will be in line for a hefty pay raise; he can be a RFA with arbitration rights, and like Holloway, I don't see it getting to that point.
The Blues acquired two players here to be long-term subjects for their organization and it's safe to say that the trajectory that they are on in St. Louis, they have accelerated the re-tool, or "re-whatever."
I put this contract in line with that of Holloway: a 24-year-old the Blues will want to sign long-term rather than a bridge deal, and if that's the case, I'll project a $7 million AAV, which would make Broberg the highest paid defenseman on the roster.
That way, the Blues would have a smooth, sound positional player that has a penchant to jump into the offense, much like he displayed last season when on top of his game.
Broberg and his camp may also entertain a shorter term deal to take him into UFA at 27, with an uptick in AAV that the Blues would offer up, he should be willing to sacrifice some UFA years to get the financial security, so I'm at 7X$49 million or 8X$56 million to get it done.
On a shorter term, I'd say 3-4 years at $6.5 million would do it, and like Holloway, the sides have time to decipher all the options before coming to a conclusion.
* Cam Fowler (UFA; $4M cap hit/$6.5M AAV) — Talk about a change of scenery that turned into gold. It couldn't have gone any better for the 33-year-old, who not only found the fountain of youth in St. Louis after being acquired from the Anaheim Ducks along with a 2027 fourth-round pick on Dec. 14, 2024 for prospect Jeremie Biakabutuka and a second-round pick in 2027.
In 51 games with the Blues, Fowler instantly connected with Colton Parayko and put up 36 points (nine goals, 27 assists) while averaging 21:42 per game and a plus-19 rating, then averaging 23:07 in the seven-game series against the Jets.
It was as if a lifelong Duck playing in southern California was meant to be a Blue.
And entering the final year of an eight-year, $52 million contract signed July 1, 2017, Fowler has already expressed his desire to re-sign with the Blues.
I believe Armstrong also hinted in the direction of keeping the veteran after what he saw of Fowler and showing no signs of deteriorating.
The Blues do have a pipeline of left-handed D-men coming through the ranks, but the likes of Theo Lindstein, Lukas Fischer, Michael Buchinger and Quinton Burns are at the very least a couple years away, and even Colin Ralph is playing at Michigan State this year.
I just don't see anyone who would bump Fowler off the depth chart, and his valuable experience and immediate cohesion with the organization and systems will be valuable for the immediate future.
The Blues are on the hook for a $4 million cap hit this year, and yes, Fowler turns 34 in December, so he's getting longer in the tooth. I believe the two sides will come to an agreement in the three-year, $5 million AAV range to keep him in St. Louis where the Windsor, Ontario native thrived.
* Logan Mailloux (RFA; $875K cap hit/$902.5K AAV) — Hello wild card.
After last season concluded, the 22-year-old wasn't on the horizon for development in St. Louis, but that all changed on July 1 when the Blues went out and acquired Mailloux from the Montreal Canadiens for Zack Bolduc, two highly-touted prospects moving to another organization for positions of need.
The Blues wanted to get younger on the blue line and did so by acquiring the No. 31 pick in the 2017 draft, sacrificing the 17th pick in the same draft.
Mailloux comes with a lot of promise, and as he enters the final year of his entry-level contract. Armstrong said it's his job to lose as he enters training camp this year with just eight games' worth of NHL experience.
I think the Blues will work Mailloux in at a reasonable pace, but if some of the clips I've seen of his play begin to burst onto the scene at a rapid pace, there's no telling how good he can be. But right now, that's what it is: hype. So even at 22, he will be given every chance to prove his worth, but the Blues didn't acquire Mailloux on hype. He's going to be given every chance to be a long-term option for the organization.
But this next contract is the toughest nut to crack. I'll go on hypotheticals here and say Mailloux will have a rock-solid first year in St. Louis and get a bridge contract of three years for $4 million per season, then go from there. He's a RFA with no arbitration rights, so the Blues have control for a number of years but will reward a really good season based on what they liked about him heading into the 2021 draft.
I think the Blues will give Mailloux some semblance of a Broberg-type contract that he received when he signed his offer sheet last year.
I look at guys coming off entry-level contracts here like Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko that got hefty raises ($6.5 million AAV each), but those players proved themselves in those ELC's. That's why I'd like to see how Mailloux performs first before giving an honest judgment.
* Matthew Kessel (Group 6 UFA; $800K cap hit/AAV) — I remember when the fifth-round pick in 2020 burst onto the scene, a product of the University of Massachusetts and averaged 16:48 of ice time in his first taste of life in the NHL. I kept thinking that the Blues have found themselves a diamond in the rough, someone who's won't woo and wow you but is steady-solid and responsible on the blue line.
The Blues thought so too when they rewarded the 25-year-old with a two-year contract on March 13, 2024 after basically burning the first year of his entry-level deal.
But after playing in just 29 games last season (three assists) and averaging just 13:08 of ice time per game, Kessel enters the final year of his contract with plenty to prove. He has slipped behind Montgomery favorite Tyler Tucker on the ranks, and that should be a wake-up call in itself.
Kessel can become a Group 6 UFA on July 1, 2026, and I don't think the Blues want to give up on him … yet.
Honestly, the right side of the D-corps is pretty thin in the prospect ranks, with Adam Jiricek (2024 first round, No. 16 overall) lurking in the weeds but who obviously needs to develop and play hockey games with his injury history, and there's a reason why the Blues made the move for the right-handed Mailloux.
Ultimately, I think this will go down to next July, and should Kessel decide to stay, he will get himself a two-year contract for $1 million per season, unless he thinks he can get more on the open market. And that's if he can get ice time — which he likely will — this season and perform well.
I don't think he played poorly when he got into the lineup last season, but I also don't think he moved the needle in an upward trajectory either. That's why there will be plenty to prove.
Here are the expiring contracts for players in Springfield/in the system:
Dylan Peterson (RFA; $867.5K cap hit/$925K AAV); Zach Dean (RFA; $852.5K cap hit/$863.333K AAV); Hugh McGing (UFA; $775K cap hit/AAV); Nikita Alexandrov (Group 6 UFA; $775K cap hit/AAV); Matt Luff (UFA; $775K cap hit/AAV); Samuel Johannesson (RFA; $870K cap hit/$950K AAV); Leo Loof (RFA; $867.5K cap hit/$925K AAV); Hunter Skinner (Group 6 UFA; $775K cap hit/AAV); Corey Schueneman (UFA; $775K cap hit/AAV); Vadim Zherenko (Group 6 UFA; $775K cap hit/AAV); Will Cranley (RFA; $775K cap hit/AAV).
Source link
