There is always fierce competition for starting pitching on the open market. This offseason should be no exception, but the current crop of starters available through free agency is an especially interesting one.
There is no clear-cut, standout, obvious ace who tops all the rest. Instead, there is a group of somewhere between four and six pitchers — depending on your interpretation — who could credibly slot in at or near the top of someone’s rotation in 2026. There isn’t a ton of separation between these arms, which have, in some cases, wildly divergent strengths and weaknesses. Different teams might have very different orders of preference based on their own evaluations.
The same was true for the 15 MLB.com voters who participated in a free-agent edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings and submitted some markedly different ballots. Below are the results of their votes, which set aside any starters who already signed or accepted qualifying offers from their teams for 2026.
1) Framber Valdez
Few have been as steady as Valdez on a year-to-year basis since he became a regular part of the Astros’ rotation in 2020. The left-hander posted an ERA+ between 114 and 138 in all six of those seasons, topping 175 innings and 3.5 WAR (per FanGraphs) in each of the past four. Overall since 2020, Valdez ranks fifth in the Majors in innings (973) and tied for sixth in fWAR (20.3). He doesn’t do it with big velocity or bushels of missed bats, but Valdez’s ability to induce ground balls should make him especially appealing to teams with strong infield defenses, and/or those in more hitter-friendly ballparks.
2) Dylan Cease
The pitcher tied for sixth with Valdez in fWAR since 2020? That would be Cease. And yet, compared with Valdez’s consistency, Cease feels like a much more volatile target. Is he an ace or an enigma? That’s the question for teams this offseason trying to evaluate a pitcher who over the past four years has alternated finishing in the top five in Cy Young Award voting (2022 and ‘24) with posting an ERA of roughly 4.50 — even with underlying numbers that suggest he pitched better than that (2023 and ‘25). Cease misses bats and piles up K’s but also has a tendency for walks and short outings. Still, the upside is sure to attract many suitors.
3) Ranger Suárez
If you’re looking for fastball velocity (7th percentile in 2025), whiff rate (24th percentile) or strikeout rate (55th percentile), Suárez is not going to be your first choice. He also isn’t a high-volume innings eater (147 innings per season since 2022). But if you’re simply looking for a pitcher who finds ways to keep runs off the board, Suárez checks that box. He has a 3.38 career ERA with the Phillies, including 3.59 as a full-time starter over the past four seasons. Coming at hitters with a six-pitch arsenal, Suárez does an excellent job of limiting both walks and quality of contact. No regular MLB starter last season could beat his 31.1% hard-hit rate allowed.
4) Tatsuya Imai
Imai is one of four intriguing Japanese players looking to make the jump to MLB next season after being posted by their NPB teams. In Imai’s case, he has until Jan. 2 at 5 p.m. to negotiate a deal. The 27-year-old right-hander, who enjoyed great success with the Saitama Seibu Lions, seems ready for the challenge — not just of coming to MLB, but also of taking on his countrymen on the back-to-back champion Dodgers. Listed at just 5-foot-11 and 154 pounds, Imai will have plenty to prove against Major League hitters, but pitching-hungry teams seem poised to view him as a top-five free-agent starter this offseason. And our voting panel agreed.
5) Michael King
In some ways, King is a difficult case to evaluate. On one hand, he has a 3.35 ERA in 64 career starts and a 3.10 ERA (134 ERA+, 3.65 FIP) since 2024. Those are enviable numbers. On the other hand, injuries limited his 2025 season to 15 starts and 73 1/3 innings, leaving ‘24 as the only season in which the 30-year-old has pitched at least 105 big league innings. (He spent five seasons bouncing between roles with the Yankees before coming to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade.) Many of King’s underlying numbers also took a step back from 2024 to ‘25, including his Statcast expected ERA (3.56 to 4.31). It remains an intriguing profile, but perhaps a riskier one than the pitchers above him on this list.
6) Zac Gallen
Timing is everything when it comes to free agency, and the timing would have been much better for Gallen if he had reached the open market after the 2022, ‘23 or ‘24 seasons. Unfortunately for the 30-year-old righty, he instead does so now, coming off a career-worst 4.83 ERA and 4.50 FIP, with some concerning trends in his below-the-surface numbers. On the bright side, Gallen still topped 30 starts and 180 innings for the third time in four years, and he’s not far removed from back-to-back top-five Cy Young Award finishes from 2022-23. Perhaps a change of scenery will help Gallen get back on track and reestablish his top-end value.
7) Merrill Kelly
For most of the past seven seasons — until he was dealt to the Rangers at this year’s Trade Deadline — Kelly teamed up with Gallen to provide the D-backs with a strong 1-2 punch. Now they’re back to back in the Free Agent Starting Pitcher Power Rankings. Kelly, who had a successful stint in the KBO before getting his first shot in the Majors at age 30, is now 37 years old, meaning he likely won’t command a long-term contract. Still, he’s coming off a 3.52 ERA over 32 starts, the third time in four years he’s taken the ball at least 30 times and delivered an ERA at least that low. Averaging only around 92 mph with his four-seamer and sinker, Kelly has begun to lean more on his changeup, which was his most-used pitch in 2025 and induced a chase rate of nearly 50%.
8) Chris Bassitt
Bassitt has a pretty similar case to Kelly: a veteran righty entering his age-37 season after a solid and durable season (3.96 ERA in 170 1/3 innings) that nonetheless is down a bit from the peak he showed a few years earlier. Another similarity? Bassitt’s fastball velocity is now well below average, but he combatted that in 2025 by throwing eight distinct pitch types, only one of them (his sinker) more than 17% of the time. That’s pretty much the definition of “crafty.”
9) Justin Verlander
Kelly and Bassitt look positively youthful compared with Verlander, who will turn 43 before Opening Day. For a time last season with the Giants, Verlander looked like an all-time great who had finally run out of steam. But after producing a 4.70 ERA before the All-Star break, Verlander dropped that to 2.99 afterward. His expected performance in August and September (a .286 xwOBA allowed) put him in the top 20 among regular starters, right alongside the likes of Logan Webb, Max Fried and Logan Gilbert. In other words, there still seems to be something left in the tank here.
10) Tyler Mahle
You could say that Mahle has posted a 3.61 ERA, 121 ERA+ and 3.77 FIP over his past 90 games (89 starts), including a 2.18 ERA, 168 ERA+ and 3.37 FIP in 2025. You could also say that those 89 starts were spread over six seasons, including just 16 in ‘25, when he missed about three months with right shoulder fatigue. That contrast explains Mahle’s spot on this list: He’s been effective when healthy — he just hasn’t been healthy all that often in recent years.
Honorable mentions: Max Scherzer, Zach Eflin, Cody Ponce, Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell, Kona Takahashi
Voters: Chris Begley, Jason Catania, Scott Chiusano, Daniel Feldman, Doug Gausepohl, Brent Maguire, Travis Miller, Brian Murphy, Arturo Pardavila, Manny Randhawa, Andrew Simon, David Venn, Zac Vierra, Tom Vourtsis, Andy Werle
