Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
2024 stats: 3,541 yards, 62.5% completion percentage, 20 passing touchdowns, six interceptions, 27th in EPA/play.
Williams entered the NFL with enormous hype. He was supposed to be a franchise-altering quarterback, a one-man offense who could spin magic out of the mundane. Instead, his rookie season fell flat.
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Chicago drafted him No 1 overall and then plopped him into an ill-fitting roster with an ill-fitting scheme. To compound things, the Bears overloaded Williams with too much, too soon and he spent much of the year looking frazzled.
There was plenty of blame to go around: receivers quit on the offense (at one point mid-play), the offensive line was brutal and there was no supporting run game. By the midpoint of the season, the players’ body language was so poor that the O-line barely pretended to care when Williams was crushed.
Still, the rookie wasn’t blameless. Williams swung between hyper-aggressive and ultra-conservative. The creativity that defined his game in college vanished. Early in the season, he bailed from clean pockets, hoping to extend plays; later, he stayed glued to the top of his drops, as though he was trying to deconstruct pre-draft narratives about his instinctual style in real-time. Neither extreme worked.
Williams did show progress late in the year, playing with better rhythm in a more structured set-up, but his accuracy was still erratic. Among starting QBs, only Anthony Richardson was more inaccurate on unpressured throws from the pocket.
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Enter Ben Johnson. The former Lions offensive coordinator has been the most sought-after head coach for two cycles. He rejected multiple job offers before finally taking the Bears gig, betting his career on Williams.
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It’s not just Johnson, either. For the third straight year, the Bears have been crowned offseason champs (hang the banners!). Chicago overhauled their offensive line, trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing center Drew Dalman in free agency. They added Ozzy Trapilo in the second round of the draft, and he is in contention to start at left tackle.
It’s a solid haul, but there are caveats. Jackson was a bust in LA, his career derailed by injuries. Thuney has been one of the league’s best guards for a decade, but he turns 33 in November and he showed signs of ageing last season. Dalman is a run-game specialist who has been exposed in pass protection. If the trio click early, they will help fuel Johnson’s rushing attack, the bedrock of Johnson’s offense, but it could easily go the other way.
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And there are still fair questions about how Johnson will build a passing game to fit Williams. In Detroit, Johnson built a rhythm-based attack around Jared Goff. That’s not Williams’ natural game. He is a creator, wired to hold the ball and extend plays. Finding a balance between Johnson’s systematized approach and Williams’ freewheeling style will be a challenge.
Adjustments should flow in both directions: Johnson loosening his approach; Williams speeding up his play in the pocket. Early training camp reports, though, have not been encouraging. Johnson hasn’t decluttered the Bears’ offense. He’s added even more to the quarterback’s plate, dumping his entire offense on Williams and asking him to play catch-up. That’s the same approach last year’s staff took, and it was a dud.
Johnson was hired to trigger a quick turnaround for Williams and the Bears, but the partnership may take a year to come together. Williams remains an electric talent. Johnson is one of the best offensive architects of his generation. The potential peak is a Mahomes-Reid-like fusion of ideas. But the teething issues could be gnarly until the duo find a middle-ground approach that works.
Confidence meter: 5/10 – Banking on Johnson.
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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
2024 stats: 3,568 yards, 69% completion percentage, 25 passing touchdowns, nine interceptions, eighth in EPA/play
Daniels put together the finest rookie quarterback season in modern league history, carrying the Commanders to an NFC Championship game.
Nothing about last year was a fluke. He cracked everything opposing defenses threw his way, torching the blitz and shredding complex coverage rotations. At times, Daniels was a one-man offense, an explosive play waiting to happen, whether through the air or on the ground. He also mastered pro-level nuances and refused to make dumb mistakes, finishing the season with 1.7% turnover-worthy play percentage, second only to Lamar Jackson.
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The Commanders recognize they have something special and spent the offseason trying to fast-track their championship timeline. That’s a laudable strategy, but the particulars are fuzzy. They bet on household names, acquiring Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel in offseason trades to give Daniels more protection and firepower. But both of the new arrivals are at iffy stages of their careers: Tunsil didn’t play up to his reputation in Houston last season; Samuel is a unicorn, but injuries have slowed him down. The team mirrored the strategy on defense, bringing in older vets (Von Miller, Will Harris, Eddie Goldman) to try to push them over the top. Now, Washington have the oldest roster in the NFL despite having one of the best young quarterbacks in the league.
You can quibble with the Commanders’ medium-term outlook, but the roster is stronger this season than last. Tunsil, for all his faults last season, is a clear upgrade at left tackle. If the team can box off a contract extension for Terry McLaurin, they will have plenty of weapons for Daniels to work with. Even if the team regress, we have seen enough from Daniels to know he will be a perennial MVP contender.
Confidence meter: 10/10 – we’re gonna need a bigger scale.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
2024 stats: 2,276 yards, 66.6% completion percentage, 15 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 20th in EPA/play
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Maye was dealt the roughest hand of any rookie quarterback last season. He was dropped on a barren roster, playing for a head coach who was in over his head.
Given the circumstances, Maye was outstanding. There were flashes of the Justin Herbert-esque quarterback he could be: An efficient, downfield bomber who can move the chains with his legs, so long as he kicks his addiction to fumbles. The surface numbers were fine. But the under-the-hood figures were more encouraging. He finished the year 20th in EPA/play, ranking third among the rookies and ahead of more established starters. He also finished with 2.8% completion percentage over expectation, which sounds small but put him 11th in the league, above Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
This season, the arrow is pointing up. Mike Vrabel is now the Pats’ head coach. Josh McDaniels is back calling plays. Professionalism is back in the building. The front office invested heavily and smartly to upgrade the offense, adding Stefon Diggs, rookie receiver Kyle Williams, veteran linemen Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury, and two linemen drafted in the top three rounds, including left tackle Will Campbell.
Even with the additions, the Patriots’ offensive line lacks experience and difference-makers. But it’s in a stronger place than when Maye walked into the huddle a year ago. The receiver room is also improved, running eight deep, with recent draft picks Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker unlikely to make the regular season roster.
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With those improvements around him, Maye is the most likely quarterback to take the Year Two leap.
Confidence meter: 7/10 – finally working with some pros.
Michael Penix Jr, Atlanta Falcons
2024 stats: 775 yards, 58.1% completion percentage, three passing touchdowns, three interceptions
The sample size is tiny. But in three starts, Penix justified last offseason’s contentious investment. Atlanta drafted Penix No 8 overall, three months after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency to a three-year, $180m fully guaranteed deal. At the time, double-dipping on quarterbacks felt foolish. And given that Cousins arrived in Atlanta fully cooked, it still feels foolish. But with Cousins’ decline and a so-so draft intake, picking up a quarterback with Penix’s potential has proven to be a savvy move.
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Watching Cousins last year was miserable. He couldn’t move. His throws had no juice. Strip off the nameplate, and the Falcons had a quarterback struggling to operate a functional NFL offense. Atlanta’s OC, Zac Robinson, was forced to scrap elements of his offense to try to hide Cousins’ physical shortcomings. It took only one drive for Penix to show the promise of Atlanta’s offense. Unlike Cousins, Penix has a rapid release and a hose for an arm. He immediately allowed the Falcons to expand the playbook and showed some veteran craft in the pocket. He navigated muddy pockets, extended plays when he could and manipulated defenders with his eyes, spraying the ball to all levels of the field.
For all the positives, Penix’s accuracy remains a concern. He posted one of the highest uncatchable pass rates of the season (34.4%) in Week 17, a lingering issue from his days in college. But there was enough upside to fill fans with confidence that he can be, at worst, a league-average starter – and that alone would be an improvement for the Falcons.
Atlanta’s offense is oozing with potential. Drake London is an All-Pro-caliber receiver. With Kyle Pitts, Casey Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud, they have a good cast of supplementary pass-catchers. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are one of the best backfield tandems in the league. The offensive line is solid, if unspectacular. The ceiling of the group will come down to Penix’s development.
Confidence meter: 6/10 – who doesn’t love a rocket-armed lefty?
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JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
2024 stats: N/A
McCarthy is this season’s mystery box. He missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and stood on the sidelines as Sam Darnold rejuvenated his career, showing what’s possible in Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
This year’s Vikings roster is deeper and more talented than the group that won 14 games last season, putting McCarthy in an ideal spot for a first-year starter. The offensive line is improved, he has a game-breaker at receiver, a top-10 tight end, a decent rushing attack, an offensive guru for a head coach and a hellacious defense that should provide plenty of short fields.
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Pushing deep into the playoffs should be the expectation in Minnesota; the roster is too loaded, the coaching staff too good to miss this opportunity. But that’s a ton of pressure to lay at the door of a quarterback who is effectively a rookie.
Related: An American dream dashed: why Louis Rees-Zammit called time on NFL adventure
If he does nothing else but limit turnovers, McCarthy should pilot the Vikings to double-digit wins. If he can prove to be more of a playmaker, which he showed in bursts at Michigan, he can elevate the offense beyond what Darnold produced last season.
Confidence meter: 5/10 – too many unknowns.
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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
2024 stats: 3,775 yards, 66.3% completion percentage, 29 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 19th in EPA/play
Last year, Nix and Sean Payton silenced the bozos (this writer included) who rolled their eyes at Denver drafting him in the first round. Anyone doubting Nix at this point is likely holding on to priors. Is he as physically gifted as Williams, Daniels, or Maye? No. But entering his second season, Nix has checked off more boxes than all but Daniels.
As a rookie, Nix was efficient, accurate and decisive. He was fortunate to be playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, but he quickly mastered Payton’s richly layered offense and took advantage of his environment.
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Early on, the Broncos sheltered Nix. That made sense. Even as an older rookie – he entered the league as a 24-year-old – Nix’s feel in the pocket was off, and he struggled to rev up to the speed of the league. But by the midseason, Payton had ripped the training wheels off, and Nix demolished any pre-draft notions about his game. He started manipulating defenses rather than reacting to them. He challenged the middle of the field. He ripped heaters into tight coverage. Over the second half of the season, Nix finished sixth in adjusted completion percentage on throws of 20 yards or more, outpacing Herbert, Jackson and Joe Burrow. He cut down on negative plays, posting the best rookie pressure-to-sack rate at 13% (elite quarterbacks typically hover around 10%).
Pre-draft, Nix was billed as a system quarterback, one who would rely on making quick, decisive reads, accuracy and not turning the ball over. Those traits still define his game. But he showed in the second half of his rookie year that he is more than a cog in Payton’s machine.
If Nix can build on his rookie campaign, the Broncos will have legitimate title aspirations.
Confidence meter: 8/10 – Nix can anchor a franchise.
