In a matchup of surging welterweights at UFC Fight Night 264, who has the edge in the desert?
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC Vegas 111 main event.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 264 main event between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown.
Gabriel Bonfim UFC Fight Night 264 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 18-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC
- Height: 6’1″ Age: 28 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
- Last fight: Decision win over Stephen Thompson (July 12, 2025)
- Camp: Bonfim Brothers (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + LFA welterweight title
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + National Brazilian boxing champion
- + 3 KO victories
- + 13 submission wins
- + 8 first-round finishes
- + Improved pace management
- + Solid lead hand
- ^ Accurate jabs and hooks
- + Hard leg kicks
- + Solid takedown ability
- ^ In the open or against the fence
- + Good scrambler
- ^ Dangerous submission acumen
- +/- 2-0 in the UFC Apex (3-0 including DWCS)
Randy Brown UFC Fight Night 264 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 20-6 MMA, 14-6 UFC
- Height: 6’3″ Age: 35 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 78″
- Last fight: Knockout win over Nicholas Dalby (April 26, 2025)
- Camp: Budokan Martial Arts Academy (New York)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + ROC welterweight title
- + Amateur MMA accolades
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + 8 KO victories
- + 5 submission wins
- + 4 first-round finishes
- + KO Power
- + Solid straight punches
- ^ Works well off of lead hand
- + Dangerous knees
- + Crafty inside the clinch
- + Improved takedown defense
- + Solid submission grappler
- ^ Active and attacking guard
- +/- 3-1 in the UFC Apex
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown point of interest: Welterweight war
The main event in Las Vegas features a potential welterweight war between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown.
Although Bonfim’s submissions stand out on paper, the Brazilian comes from a boxing background and can comport himself fairly well on the feet. From a solid and stiff jab to his underrated kicking arsenal, Bonfim has steadily developed into a well-rounded offensive threat.
Coming from the same camp as Vicente Luque, Bonfim also has a knack for timing cracking left hooks. Bonfim’s bodywork and leg kicks will likely serve him well opposite his American counterpart, but he’ll need to be mindful of his linear retreats.
One of the taller and longer fighters in the division, Brown is a talented offensive fighter with tools across multiple ranges.
Working off a long and diverse jab, Brown can change up the looks and timing of his lead hand in order to set up power shots from the rear. And when opponents can make it past his offerings at range, the Jamaican-born product offers a healthy dose of knees in the open and in tie-ups alike.
Brown also has some underrated head movement for a tall fighter, but can sometimes play it a bit too fast and loose with his defense for my liking.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown point of interest: Protect your neck
Considering both fighters’ submission skills, protecting the neck will be paramount for both parties this weekend.
Even though Brown is not beyond shooting for his own takedowns, Bonfim is the fighter who is most likely to get offensive in that department.
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who is not shy about going for submissions, Bonfim has steadily been strengthening the wrestling portion of his game. Bonfim can still hit athletic reactionary shots in the open, but the 28-year-old typically does his best work with chaining attempts from the clinch.
Even if he’s working along the fence, Bonfim is good about using leg play to help him shuck by and get an advantageous angle on his opponent.
From hip bumps to Polish throw variations, Bonfim appears to be strong once he gets in on the hips. And once Bonfim grounds his foes, “Marretinha” is quick to advance to potentially fight-ending positions.Luckily for Brown, the Jamaican-American is no slouch when it comes to the grappling department.
Not only has Brown improved his tie-up acumen and takedown defense along the fence, but the 35-year-old also offers real dangers for those who try to force positions on him. Whether we’re talking about Brown’s slick front chokes or underrated guard game, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt is no stranger to fighting in closed quarters.
Brown’s height and length also allow him unique ground-and-pound opportunities that all of his opponents have to be mindful of.
To his credit, Bonfim – who loves to drop back or commit to front chokes – has shown himself to be an excellent scrambler from the bottom. That said, he’ll still need to respect the submission acumen of Brown.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown odds
The oddsmakers and the public favor the Brazilian fighter, listing Bonfim -184 and Brown +148 via FanDuel.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown prediction, pick
Although I don’t necessarily disagree with who is favored, this is ultimately a fight between two talented but flawed fighters, making this a deceptively tough matchup to call.
Bonfim, despite having a plethora of offensive tools, has shown some suspect stamina and staying power in past matchups. And though he’s displayed some improved pace management in recent outings, Bonfim still shows some bad habits in the form of linear retreats and upright head positions that a sniper like Brown could exploit.
The potential problem with Brown, however, is that he tends to make fights close – as well as sometimes fade down the stretch – in both victory and defeat. I also noticed that Brown has quietly been the most habitual fouler since Jon Jones, as far as his propensity to poke his opponents in the eyes go (which could bode badly given the foul run we’ve been on in MMA as of late).
I know Brown gets mad whenever anyone points out his fouling patterns, but I don’t believe he’s malicious about it, for whatever that’s worth. In fact, I find Brown very easy to root for and would be very happy to see a representative of Jamaica help bring hope, help and awareness alike to his community.
But as far as breaking this fight down from an unbiased analytical perspective goes, I find myself leaning toward Bonfim.
Aside from Bonfim’s leg kicks and bodywork having a high potency in this matchup, I believe that the fighting terrain of the smaller octagon favors the Brazilian’s style and grappling pressure. Brown will be an even livelier underdog if he survives the initial storms, but the official pick is Bonfim by submission in Round 2.
Prediction: Bonfim inside the distance
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown start time, how to watch
As the main event, Bonfim and Brown are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.
