Group of 5 playoff odds: Projecting College Football Playoff rankings for USF, North Texas and more originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The College Football Playoff’s second rankings will be released on Tuesday evening. One of the biggest questions for the updated 12-team bracket is where the Group of Five team will land?
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One of the best parts of the expanded 12-team playoff field is that there is a guaranteed spot for a non-power, Group of Five school. Last season, Boise State from the Mountain West made history in the first-ever G5 school to make the 12-team field.
For 2025, it looks like the conference poised to get a team into the field is the American Athletic Conference. Last week, the No. 12 spot went to the Memphis Tigers. But on Saturday, Memphis fell 38-32 to Tulane.
That means the Group of Five playoff bid is up for grabs heading into the last few weeks of the regular season. Let’s take a look at the non-power teams in the mix for the playoff spot.
MORE:Projecting the CFP Top 25 for Week 12Ā
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Which Group of Five teams can get a playoff spot?
It looks like there are at least five non-power teams currently in the mix for a bid. Three of them come from the American Athletic Conference, in South Florida, North Texas, Tulane and Memphis. But James Madison in the Sun Belt has a clear shot, as well. Let’s run through all five teams and take a look at how likely it is for each to earn a bid.
We’ll use ESPN’s FPI and Allstate Playoff Predictor metrics, and look ahead at their respective schedules, as well.
MORE:Comparing every CFP ranking from 2014 to final Top 25
USF Bulls
The Bulls have the best shot at making the playoff, as things stand right now.
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USF is 7-2 on the season, with losses coming on the road to Miami and a 34-31 loss at Memphis two weeks ago. USF has signature wins over ranked opponents in Boise State and Florida, as well as dominant wins over North Texas and UTSA, which were won by combined margins of 118-59. Led by quarterback Byrum Brown, the Bulls have the nation’s No. 5 scoring offense, averaging 42 points per game.
According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, USF has a 40% chance to make the 12-team field. ESPN’s FPI puts them at 39.2%, with a projected 10-2 finish to the season.Ā FPI gives the Bulls a 54.7 percent chance of winning out. Here’s who USF has remaining on its schedule:
|
Date |
Opponent |
|
Nov. 15 |
at Navy |
|
Nov. 22 |
at UAB |
|
Nov. 29 |
vs. Rice |
The toughest test remaining appears to be at Navy this coming weekend. The Midshipmen are 7-2, coming off a 49-10 loss at Notre Dame. Navy starting quarterback Blake Horvath did not play in the game, but is expected to be well enough to go on Saturday. Still, USF is an early 10.5-point favorite.
UAB and Rice are below .500 on the season, so USF should have no problems with those two games. Assuming USF wins out, the Bulls will play in the AAC title game on Dec. 6. Their opponent in that game could be a team listed below.
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James Madison
The Group of Five team with the second-best playoff chances is James Madison, which plays in the Sun Belt Conference. Under second-year head coach Bob Chesney, the Dukes are 8-1. The lone loss came in Week 2, on the road against Louisville. JMU is undefeated in conference play, and has won seven of its eight wins by more than two scores.
According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, JMU has a 36% chance to make the 12-team field. ESPN’s FPI puts them at 35.8%, with a projected win-loss record of 11-1.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedule for the Dukes:
|
Date |
Opponent |
|
Nov. 15 |
vs. App State |
|
Nov. 22 |
vs. Washington State |
|
Nov. 29 |
at Coastal Carolina |
JMU has a chance to make a statement against Washington State. Although the Pac-12 is no longer technically a power conference, the Cougs are still considered a power team, or at the very least a step above the Sun Belt. JMU is a 20.5-point favorite againstĀ 4-5 App State.
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JMU’s game at Coastal Carolina will be JMU’s biggest test. The Chanticleers are 5-1 in the Sun Belt, sitting behind the Dukes in second place in the East standings. If JMU wins out, the Dukes will likely face Southern Miss in the Sun Belt Championship Gameāthe Golden Eagles are 7-2 on the season.
North Texas
North Texas even being mentioned as a potential playoff team is huge for this program. The Mean Green have a 301-370-11 overall record as a program, dating back to 1953. The last time North Texas even won a conference championship was back in 2004, winning the Sun Belt conference that year. North Texas is in its second season in the AAC, and is having a great season so far under third-year head coach Eric Morris.
North Texas’ one loss came 63-36 to USF at home. But the Mean Green has some solid resume-building wins, like their 59-10 win over Washington State, a 45-38 win over Army and their 35-17 win over Navy a couple weeks ago.
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According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, North Texas has a 30% chance to make the 12-team field. ESPN’s FPI puts them at 29.8%, with a projected win-loss record of 11-1. Here’s a look at North Texas’ remaining schedule:
|
Date |
Opponent |
|
Nov. 15 |
at UAB |
|
Nov. 22 |
at Rice |
|
Nov. 28 |
vs. Temple |
All three of these teams are either .500 or worse, so North Texas should win all three of these games. But the Mean Green needs the likes of Navy, South Florida and Tulane to stumble to have a shot at the AAC title game. Navy is 5-1 in the conference, and North Texas is behind USF and Tulane in the AAC standings.
Even if North Texas doesn’t end up being a legitimate playoff team, it’s a great season for the Mean Green, who finished 6-7 last season. In fact, North Texas is just two wins away from its first double-digit win season in school history.
Tulane
Tulane already has the odds stacked against it, with a 7-2 record. But since the Green Wave is second in the AAC standings, Tulane still has a shot at the playoff as the AAC champion.
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The Green Wave’s two losses came against playoff team Ole Miss in Week 4, and a 48-26 loss on the road to UTSA. But Tulane upset Memphis 38-32 last week, putting them back in the mix for the AAC title game. The Green Wave also has wins over power-conference teams like Northwestern and Duke earlier in the year.
According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, Tulane has a 13% chance to make the 12-team field. ESPN’s FPI’s outlook looks similar, giving the Green Wave a 13.8% chance to make the 12-team field. Its projected win-loss record is 9.7-2.8.Ā Here’s a look at Tulane’s remaining schedule:
|
Date |
Opponent |
|
Nov. 15 |
vs. FAU |
|
Nov. 22 |
at Temple |
|
Nov. 29 |
vs. Charlotte |
ESPN’s FPI gives the Green Wave a 29.2% chance to win out, with just a 15.4% chance to win the AAC. Tulane would need both North Texas and USF to stumble to get a shot at playing in the conference title game, in addition to winning out. It’s a bit of a long shot for Tulane to make the playoff, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Memphis
Before Week 11, Memphis looked primed to earn a playoff bid. The initial CFP bracket had 8-1 Memphis as the No. 12 seed, set to play No. 5 Georgia in the first round.
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But Memphis losing to Tulane on Saturday, paired with the Tigers’ 31-24 loss to 3-6 UAB earlier in the season, evaporated Memphis’ playoff hopes. ESPN’s playoff predictor doesn’t even include Memphis anymore, and ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 1.9% chance to make the 12-team field.
What is interesting about Memphis’ standing in last week’s CFP rankings is that the Tigers weren’t even ranked in the Top-25, despite getting the 12th seed as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
MORE:Ā Week 12 college football picks, predictions
Group of 5 rankings
Memphis was unranked in the CFP’s initial top 25. But since the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion is guaranteed a spot, the committee slotted the Tigers at 12th. That means we have virtually no idea how the committee views the rest of the Group of Five teams left in the mix. Here’s a look at where G5 schools rank in the AP Poll, released on Sunday:
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Although they were not ranked, Tulane received 83 votes, North Texas got 55 and Memphis received one vote.
The committee historically ranks non-power teams quite low in the rankings. Dating back to the first playoff rankings in 2014, the highest a non-power team has finished ranked in the final rankings was Cincinnati in 2021, which ranked fourth. The Bearcats made history as the first non-power conference team to make the playoff field.
Before that, the highest a Group of Five team was ranked was eighth in 2018. That season, UCF cracked the top-10 after going 12-1. When the Knights finished undefeated in 2017 with a win over Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, UCF finished 12th. Cincinnati also finished eighth in 2020, finishing 9-4.
