The Phoenix Mercury are rolling into the postseason, aiming to match or exceed their franchise record 29 wins set during the 2014 title-winning season.
Here’s a breakdown of the teams most likely to threaten the Mercury’s championship hopes.
Advertisement
Minnesota Lynx
Why they can beat the Mercury: The 2024 championship runner-up Lynx are playing with a vengeance, led by MVP candidate and the league’s best scorer Napheesa Collier. Minnesota has clinched the top seed, and, if the Lynx win their first-round series against the No. 8 seed, the Mercury could be next. If the Mercury finish at No. 4 or No. 5 and can win their best-of-three first-round series, a fully healthy Lynx team (the league’s top offense and defense) would be their toughest roadblock.
How the Mercury can stop the Lynx: MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas has been the answer for the Mercury all year, averaging nearly a triple-double. Phoenix went 1-2 versus Minnesota in the regular season. Thomas is an elite defender anchoring the Mercury, the league’s No. 4 defense as of Thursday, Sept. 4. There’s momentum from good health and chemistry built during their recent run of success, and the Mercury’s stellar bench scoring gives Phoenix a fighting chance against Minnesota.
Las Vegas Aces
Why they can beat the Mercury: The Mercury might be able to avoid the Aces until a potential semifinal matchup. If Las Vegas secures the No. 2 seed and Phoenix finishes No. 4 or No. 5, the teams would enter the postseason on opposite sides of the bracket. Las Vegas beat Phoenix in the last three games of the teams’ four-game season series, including an 83-61 blowout in Phoenix on Aug. 21. Currently riding a franchise-record 13 straight wins, the Aces sprinted up the standings from seventh to challenge the Mercury. A’ja Wilson is making her own case to win her second straight MVP and fourth of her career. No one can stop her, and the Aces have four Olympians: Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd and Jackie Young.
Advertisement
How the Mercury can stop the Aces: The Aces are not a great defensive team and have two other glaring weaknesses: giving up offensive rebounds and poor transition scoring (12th in fast-break points as of Thursday, Sept. 4). The Mercury are among the league’s top five rebounding and fast-break teams, and would carry a big advantage in bench scoring. If the Mercury can make a solid collective effort to keep Wilson — the WNBA’s No. 2 rebounder — off the glass, get defensive stops and push the tempo, they have a chance to fold the Aces.
Atlanta Dream
Why they can beat the Mercury: The Dream didn’t just sweep Phoenix during the three-game season series, they averaged 14-point blowouts. The Dream had the league’s second-best net rating (8.0) behind the Lynx as of Sept. 4, and Atlanta’s two-big frontcourt of All-Star Brionna Jones and former longtime Mercury star Brittney Griner helped make them the best rebounding team. Their size down low makes defenses pick their poison. Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard are among the league leaders in 3s made. In addition, the Dream make teams pay for turnovers, and they’re not careless with the ball (ranked first at only 3.4 turnovers per contest). The Mercury are ranked 12th in turnovers (5.3).
How the Mercury can stop the Dream: Scoring in the third quarter and scoring in the paint are part of Phoenix’s Achilles heel. What works for them is that they defend well in the paint (second-best in that stat). If the Mercury can take the fight to the Dream in the third quarter, get more drives, paint touches and get to the free-throw line, they can put the Dream to sleep and advance.
Advertisement
New York Liberty
Why they can beat the Mercury: The Liberty’s top player, Breanna Stewart, is back after missing most of August because of a right knee bone bruise. When she, Sabrina Ionescu and their supporting cast find their rhythm as the league’s third-best offense and scoring output, you can’t count out the defending champs.
How the Mercury can stop the Liberty: Home-court advantage is key. The Mercury defeated the Liberty 3-1 in their season series. In their two matchups at Phoenix, the Mercury beat them by an average of 16 points. As Copper said after Phoenix beat the Liberty on Aug. 29, the “X-Factor (crowd) is a part of everything we do.”
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Teams threatening the Phoenix Mercury’s fight for the 2025 WNBA title
