How do the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury match up? First look at 2025 WNBA Finals

And then there were two.

The 2025 WNBA Finals is set as the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces and No. 4 seed Phoenix Mercury will face off following wins over the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever (3-2) and No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx (3-1), respectively, in the best-of-five semifinal round. This will be the Aces fourth Finals appearance since 2020 and the Mercury’s first since 2021.

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The WNBA Finals is expanding to a best-of-seven series, which will follow a 2-2-1-1-1 format that will see the higher seed Aces hosting the first two games at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas. The series will shift to PHX Arena in Phoenix for Game 3 and 4.

The Aces are vying for their third WNBA championship in four years, while the Mercury are in search of their first title since 2014. Aces center A’ja Wilson is also trying to become the second player in league history to win the league MVP and a WNBA championship in the same season twice. (Cynthia Cooper won the MVP and titles in 1997 and 1998 and Wilson in 2022.)

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WNBA playoffs 2025: See the basketball stars in action in the second round

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WNBA playoffs 2025: See the basketball stars in action in the second round

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WNBA playoffs 2025: See the basketball stars in action in the second round

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WNBA playoffs 2025: See the basketball stars in action in the second round

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WNBA playoffs 2025: See the basketball stars in action in the second round

The journey to the title continues on Friday. Here’s a look at the 2025 WNBA Finals, including projected starting lineups, full rosters, head-to-head records and X factors:

No. 2 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 4 Phoenix Mercury

Las Vegas won the regular-season series vs. Phoenix, 3-1

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2025 WNBA Finals schedule

*if necessary

Las Vegas Aces starting lineup

Head coach: Becky Hammon

Why the Las Vegas Aces could win

Batman has Robin, and A’ja Wilson has teammate Jackie Young. Wilson is a gamechanger but the four-time MVP proved she’s only human with a couple of “stinkers” in the semifinal round against the Fever. Wilson was limited to 13 points (6-of-20 FG; 1-of-2 3PT) in Game 3, but the Aces still beat the Fever behind a 25-point performance from Young.

The dynamic duo were the highest scoring pair in the league this season, averaging a combined 39.9 points per game. Wilson and Young made history in Game 5 by becoming the first pair of teammates to score 30-plus points in the same game, finishing with 35 and 30 points in the must-win game.

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Wilson and Young can only carry the team so far, as evidenced in Game 5. Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd lifted the Aces to the finish line in overtime and will be critical moving forward. “It’s not just one person, it’s not just five people, it’s everybody,” Wilson said. The Aces not only have the highest field goal percentage (48.5%) and the highest amount of average points (87.0) in the postseason, Las Vegas has experience, playing in their third WNBA Finals in the four years.

X-factor: Las Vegas Aces forward NaLyssa Smith

Smith was fire in the Aces’ semifinal series win against the Indiana Fever, the team that drafted her No. 2 overall in 2022. After averaging 6.6 points in the Aces’ first-round series against the Seattle Storm, Smith aggressively looked to score against the Fever. The forward averaged 11.5 points in four games, including an 18-point performance in their Game 2 win, shooting 7-of-9 from the field and securing seven rebounds. “When you are on a team where winning is the standard, it raises your level of focus,” Smith said. Wilson’s load is eased when Smith is on the court, but she must stay out of foul trouble. (She had five fouls in Games 3, 4, and 5.)

Phoenix Mercury starting lineup

Head coach: Nate Tibbetts

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Why Phoenix Mercury could win

The Phoenix Mercury’s stout defense is undeniable. The Mercury turned in a defensive clinic and leaned into their physicality to knock out the league-leading Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury have the best defensive rating of the 2025 WNBA playoffs (92.2), holding opponents to the fewest points (75.9) and paint points (32) per game this postseason. That’ll make for an interesting matchup as the Aces’ have scored 47.5% of their points in the paint.

We can’t forget about the Mercury’s ability to score, primarily Phoenix’s Big 3 of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper, who average 47.3 combined points per game this season. The Mercury haven’t been shooting the 3-pointer as consistently as they did in the regular season, averaging 31.4%, slightly down from the team’s 34% average in the regular season. If the Mercury can get going from the 3-point line and stretch the floor, they will be clicking on all cylinders heading into the WNBA Finals.

X-factor: Mercury’s DeWanna Bonner, Sami Whitcomb

The Mercury entered the postseason with the highest scoring bench in the league and Phoenix will need two-time WNBA champions Sami Whitcomb and DeWanna Bonner to win the Mercury’s first title since 2014. Whitcomb was pivotal in the Mercury’s Game 2 comeback win over the Lynx, knocking down a clutch 3-pointer to send the contest to overtime. But Whitcomb was held to four points (2-of-7 FG, 0-of-2 3PT) in 24 minutes in Game 3 and six points (2-of-8 FG, 1-of-6 3PT) in 27 minutes in Game 4. The Mercury are 2-1 this postseason when Whitcomb scores 10 or more points.

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Bonner struggled in the first three games of the semis against the Lynx, averaging 2.6 points in about 24 minutes per game, although she found other ways to impact the game, with eight rebounds, two assists, one steal and one block in Game 3. Bonner turned in a breakout performance in the Mercury’s Game 4 win over the Lynx to clinch the semifinal series, scoring 11 of her 14 points in the fourth quarter, including 3-of-3 from beyond the arc. The Mercury will benefit if she can consistently contribute on both sides of the ball. Bonner has appeared in 94 career playoff games, the most in WNBA history, and her experience will be crucial in the Finals. She previously won two titles with the Mercury in 2009 and 2014.

Las Vegas Aces roster

Phoenix Mercury roster

WNBA champions by year

Who will be the next team to join this list?

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How do the Aces and Mercury match up? 2025 WNBA Finals analysis