Could Michigan State football surprise some folks and be this year’s Indiana? Well, it would apparently take at least nine wins for the Spartans to be in the College Football Playoff conversation, according to one notable analytics guru.
Kelly Ford of the well-known KFord Ratings has released a breakdown of how many wins each power four team needs to be in consideration for an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff. For the Spartans, that number is nine.
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The ratings and projection from Ford are based on the schedule difficulty, essentially stating a team with a higher schedule difficulty needs a lower number of wins to reach the College Football Playoff. Ford has Michigan State having the No. 18 most difficult schedule in the country.
So what are the chances Michigan State can go 9-3 and find themselves in the mix for the College Football Playoff? Well, Ford has also released his odds for reaching the playoff and they aren’t high for the Spartans. Ford gives Michigan State only a 1% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff this season — that’s one of the lowest numbers for any Big Ten team.
I will politely disagree with Ford’s super low percentage for the Spartans to reach the College Football Playoff, but I do believe 9-3 with this schedule will at least put them in the conversation. They probably will need to go 10-2 ultimately to get in, but it’s interesting to see what is exactly needed for the Spartans should they shock some people and be better than their preseason projection.
Check out Ford’s complete graphic for number of wins needed to be in consideration for the playoff below:
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: How many wins does MSU need to make CFP? Analytics guru has the number
