The two highest rated offenses in the country collide at Mackey Arena on Saturday where the No. 4 ranked Purdue Boilermakers host the No. 11 Illinois Fighting Illini.
Money has poured in on the Boilermakers, shifting the spread from -2.5 to -6, but my Illinois vs. Purdue predictions are going against the line movement.
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Read on to find out why in my college basketball picks for this Big Ten clash on January 24.
Illinois vs Purdue prediction
Illinois vs Purdue best bet: Illinois +6 (-110)
The Purdue Boilermakers return home after a loss on a tough road trip to the West Coast and it’s easy to see why money came in on them at -2.5. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Purdue against an Illinois Fighting Illini squad playing its first road game without guard Kylan Boswell.
That said, this line has moved too much and the Illini 89-70 win against Maryland on Wednesday proved they can survive without Boswell.
Their offense had already become more efficient after Keaton Wagler (15.9 ppg, 4.0 apg) took over as the lead ball-handler and inserting Jake Davis (43.1 3PT%) into the starting lineup improves their perimeter shooting.
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Former ABA League star Mihailo Petrovic was already chomping at the bit for more minutes and should step up as an additional facilitator off the bench.
But the main reason I like the Illini to cover is because their interior defense is significantly better. Illinois is 15th in the country in opponent two-point percentage (45.3%) while Purdue ranks 188th (51.7%).
Illinois vs Purdue same-game parlay
Wagler is coming off a game where he dropped eight dimes and he’s averaging 5.5 apg since moving to point guard at the beginning of December.
This is an ideal spot for one of my favorite SGP plays: backing the underdog on the spread and taking the faves on the moneyline. I expect Illinois to stay within two possessions but doubt they upset the Boilermakers at home without Boswell.
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Illinois vs Purdue SGP
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Keaton Wagler Over 4.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Point Guard Duel
Without its top perimeter defender in Boswell, Illinois will have a tough time staying in front of lightning-quick guard Braden Smith (14.5 ppg, 9.1 apg) who has dropped 16+ points in four of his last five games.
Illinois vs Purdue SGP
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Keaton Wagler Over 4.5 assists
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Braden Smith Over 15.5 points
Illinois vs Purdue odds
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Spread: Illinois +6 | Purdue -6
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Moneyline: Illinois +220 | Purdue -270
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Over/Under: Over 152.5 | Under 152.5
Illinois vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Boilermakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Purdue.
How to watch Illinois vs Purdue
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Location |
Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
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Date |
Saturday, January 24, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
3:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
FOX |
Illinois vs Purdue key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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