Iowa State basketball vs Cincinnati prediction, 3 things to watch

After suffering its first loss of the season, Iowa State men’s basketball will get its opportunity to regroup on the road.

The No. 2-ranked Cyclones are headed to Cincinnati. The Bearcats are set to host Iowa State for a 1 p.m. CT tip-off at Fifth Third Arena. The game will be streamed on Peacock.

Iowa State (16-1, 3-1 Big 12 Conference) lost in wire-to-wire fashion against Kansas, 84-63, in its previous outing on Jan. 13.

The Bearcats (9-8, 1-3) got their first conference win of the season on Jan. 14, defeating Colorado 77-68 after losing their first three Big 12 games.

Here are three things to watch in Saturday’s game:

Despite offensive struggles, Cincinnati is solid defensively

Cincinnati has had a rough start to conference play, but its defense has put the team in position to at least have a chance in the Bearcats’ first four Big 12 games.

Before breaking through in a win over Colorado, they suffered losses against Houston, West Virginia and UCF, but those three games were decided by seven or fewer points. West Virginia and UCF were decided by a single basket.

According to KenPom, Cincinnati is ranked No. 8 in defensive efficiency, which is not far behind the vaunted defenses of Houston, Iowa State and Arizona and ahead of Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue and numerous other top-25 teams.

The Bearcats are allowing an average of 65.9 points per game, fourth-best in the Big 12. They’ve held opponents to shooting 40.9% overall, including a 31.9% clip from beyond the arc.

Cincinnati also excels at generating turnovers, doing so on 20.5% of opponents’ possessions (29th in Division I). It forced 14 or more turnovers in each of its last three games.

FAU transfer Baba Miller and UCF transfer Moustapha Thiam are an impressive defensive tandem up front and both are tough on the glass. Former West Virginia starter Sencire Harris is a great defender at the guard position and has bolstered the Bearcats since transferring to Cincinnati.

Cincinnati’s impact newcomers

The Bearcats have a lot of new faces, with a majority of them being upperclassman transfers.

Miller and Thiam have made an instant impact.

Miller, a 6-foot-11 center, is averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.7 points per game. He is also averaging 3.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.5 blocks per game, while shooting 57.2% overall. According to KenPom, Miller boasts the second-highest defensive rebounding rate in the country, grabbing 32.1% of opportunities.

Thiam is averaging 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game, while shooting 58.3%. Thiam had a solid freshman season at UCF last year, and he continues to provide a two-way presence at 7-foot-2.

They also added Shon Abaev, a four-star prospect who was ranked in the top 30 nationally in the high school recruiting class of 2025. He and sixth-year senior Jalen Celestine, a Baylor transfer, are among the Bearcats’ go-to players off the bench.

These newcomers have carved out roles alongside key returners Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James. Thomas, a three-year starting point guard, is averaging 12.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game.

James, the son of former NFL All-Pro running back Edgerrin James, is back after missing the first 10 games of the season. He was reportedly dismissed from the team in August before getting reinstated in December.

Through seven games, James is averaging 10.6 points, 3.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game.

Get-right game for Iowa State on defense

The Cyclones ramped up their intensity on the defensive end during practice after suffering a 21-point loss at the hands of Kansas. The Jayhawks shot 50.8% overall, including a 12-of-24 (50.0%) showing from beyond the arc.

Iowa State stressed its relentless nature on defense as well as communication on that end.

There were uncharacteristic mistakes and misplays by the Cyclones on both ends in that loss at Allen Fieldhouse, but Saturday’s game gives them an opportunity to return to their identity and return to proper execution and positioning.

Despite having four different scorers averaging in double figures, the Bearcats haven’t been the most efficient. According to KenPom, they rank 208th in offensive efficiency.

Cincinnati is shooting 30.7% from beyond the arc (309th) and struggles at the free-throw line, converting at just 64.2% (352nd) as a team. The Bearcats have an effective field goal percentage of just 49.6% (last in Big 12, 241st nationally).