Iowa State basketball coach T.J. Otzelberger didn’t mince his words when asked for his opinion on UCF, which will be making the trip to Ames for a Jan. 20 game at Hilton Coliseum.
“It’s coach (Johnny) Dawkins’ best team without a doubt; he’s done a great job putting the roster together,” Otzelberger said.
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It’s more than just flattery or praise.
The Knights were picked to finish 14th out of 16 teams in the Big 12 preseason coaches’ poll, but they haven’t looked the part of a basement-dweller.
UCF flirted with the top 25 earlier in the year after getting off to a program-record 12-1 start that includes a win over Kansas. The Knights (14-3, 3-2 Big 12 Conference) are coming off an 84-77 loss to top-ranked Arizona on Jan. 17.
Iowa State (16-2, 3-2) is looking to regroup from back-to-back losses to Kansas and Cincinnati, two teams that the Knights have beaten.
Tuesday night’s game is scheduled to tip off at 6 p.m. CT. It will be available on CBS Sports Network.
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Here are three things to watch for:
UCF turning a corner with new roster
UCF went 37-33 in its first two years in the Big 12. The Knights have made only one tournament appearance in the last two decades, playing in the 2019 NCAA Tournament behind the lead of 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall.
At the pace this season’s UCF team is going, this year should be different.
Dawkins has a reconstructed roster that features 13 new players and only two holdovers from last season, but those two returners didn’t score a single basket or play significant minutes last season.
Mississippi State transfer Riley Kugel is enjoying a career-best season. He is averaging 14.6 points per game, while shooting 41.6% overall and 38.3% from deep. The 6-foot-5 guard is a go-to scorer and a solid rebounder out of the backcourt.
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Themus Fulks is coming off an impressive 30-point performance at Arizona, where he also grabbed five rebounds and dished out eight assists. The Milwaukee transfer is averaging 14.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game, while shooting 51.7% on the floor. Although he’s primarily a slashing-type threat, Fulks can occasionally take-and-make 3-pointers when presented to him. He is 13-of-26 from deep this season.
Another Milwaukee transfer, JaMichael Stillwell, is also seamlessly making the transition to the high-major level. Stillwell is averaging 12.3 points and 7.9 boards per game, while shooting 53.3% overall.
Meanwhile, Georgetown transfer Jordan Burks has reinvented himself at UCF, averaging 12.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game. He is one of the Knights’ top perimeter threats, converting on 38.0% of 3-pointers.
The rebounding battle
UCF’s starting frontcourt boasts plenty of length, athleticism and size.
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Burks is 6-foot-9 and 205 pounds, while Stillwell is 6-foot-8 and 245 pounds. At center, sophomore Ole Miss transfer John Bol stands 7-foot-2.
It will be imperative for Iowa State to win on the glass and put extra attention to detail on boxouts.
The Knights are ranked in the top 50 for both offensive and defensive rebounding rate, according to KenPom.
UCF grabs offensive rebounds on 37.5% of chances (19th in the country), while securing defensive rebounds on 27.2% of chances (45th).
Stillwell is strong on the glass, particularly on the offensive end. Devan Cambridge, a seventh-year senior, can also rebound at a high rate off the bench.
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There’s a team-wide mentality to fight for rebounds, with guards also getting involved in cleaning up the glass, so Iowa State will need to come prepared. Cincinnati might not have generated a ton of second-chance points on its 15 offensive rebounds on Jan. 17, but its ability to create extra possessions certainly helped. UCF seems like a team capable of punishing Iowa State if the Cyclones lose the rebounding battle once again.
Can Iowa State return to form defensively?
The point guard battle between Tamin Lipsey and Themus Fulks will be another fun one to watch.
Iowa State has emerged victorious over past standout point guards, like Purdue’s Braden Smith and Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz.
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Fulks might not be on their level, but he’s certainly having a good year. As good of a playmaker and scorer Fulks is, he is prone to turnovers. If he can be contained and Iowa State is able to generate turnovers and takeaways, that can only assist the Cyclones’ winning wishes.
Despite averaging 7.4 assists per game, Fulks is averaging 3.0 turnovers per game. The Cyclones will look to make him uncomfortable throughout the night, but if they’re able to dial up that pressure on Fulks and make the rest of the Knights uncomfortable, Iowa State should be in a good position to recover from the loss to Cincinnati. Creating turnovers should return confidence to the Cyclones defensively, especially if they’re able to score in transition the other way.
Iowa State basketball vs. UCF prediction
Defense and rebounding will be essential for Iowa State. Perhaps the last two losses have woken the Cyclones up, but expect UCF to try to clog the interior with its sizeable frontcourt. Iowa State should do enough to return to winning form. Iowa State 79, UCF 71
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Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State basketball vs. UCF game prediction, 3 things to watch
