MANHATTAN — After evaluating Kansas State‘s game film from its win over UCF, coach Chris Klieman admitted that he and the coaching staff had been up since the early hours of the morning studying Baylor’s offense, knowing the Wildcats had a tall task ahead of them.
Baylor has the top passing attack in all of college football. Its offense, as a whole, is averaging over 500 yards per game.
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Kansas State (2-3, 1-1 Big 12) will travel to play Baylor (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) on Saturday, Oct. 4, for an 11 a.m. game in Waco, Texas.
“They’re clicking on all cylinders,” Klieman said. “It’s not one person. Their quarterback makes ’em go, but it is a variety of guys. We don’t want to get into the 40s and have a shootout with them, and you know you’re not gonna have a 10-6 game against these guys.”
Kansas State’s defense is coming off its best game in its 34-20 win over UCF, but it could have been better. The Wildcats were dominant defensively until late in the second quarter, when they gave up their first of several explosive plays that kept the Knights within striking distance. K-State should have won more comfortably.
Kansas State is coming off its worst tackling performance
Pro Football Focus graded the Wildcats’ tackling performance against UCF as the worst it has been all year. The website had the group down for 13 missed tackles, with four starters finishing with a missed tackle rate of 50% or higher.
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“The biggest thing is that when we get a guy in a position to make a tackle on a long run and we miss the tackle,” Klieman said. “When you’re playing really good offenses that know exactly where they’re pushing the ball, and we don’t make the tackle, big plays happen, and that was frustrating.”
That could be a problem considering Baylor running back Bryson Washington is among the nation’s leaders in rushing yards after contact. He’s getting 5.3 yards per attempt, with about 3.5 yards coming after contact. He’s forced 21 missed tackles, tied for the 15th most in the country.
Similar problems could arise in the secondary, where Baylor’s receivers rank highly in YAC categories. Kole Wilson and Ashtyn Hawkins rank in the top 20, while Josh Cameron and Michael Trigg are among the top 10 in forcing missed tackles.
Kansas State’s secondary has improved almost weekly
The Wildcats’ secondary received its highest grades of the season, but it’s in for its biggest test against Baylor.
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PFF gave high remarks to Gunner Maldonado and Qua Moss, who both came down with interceptions, and allowed three catches for eight yards on eight targets between the two of them. Overall, the defense gave up 13-of-26 passes for 197 yards and a score.
Baylor excels in creating explosive plays offensively
The biggest criticism of the K-State defense against UCF was the number of big plays it allowed. The 82-yard touchdown pass given up on blown coverage before the end of the first half was the first of six plays allowed of 30 yards or more.
“We’re giving up too many explosive plays on defense, and we’re not getting as many right now on offense,” Klieman said. “We cannot give up the amount of explosive plays we are on the defensive side.”
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As you’d imagine, Baylor excels in the explosive play category. Last week against Oklahoma State, the Bears had six passes go for 25 yards or more, while they had three rushes go for 15 yards or more. They’ve had 18 total passes go for 25-plus this season, with 11 rushes going for 15 or more.
Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson is turning into NFL Draft prospect
Redshirt-senior Sawyer Robertson is among the best quarterbacks in the nation, leading the country with 342.6 passing yards per game and 17 touchdowns.
He took the Bears’ starting job early in the 2024 season after transferring from Mississippi State. During the offseason, ESPN labeled him as an NFL Draft sleeper, citing his size at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds and strong arm. The Athletic wrote in mid-September that he was among the early-season surprises, saying that NFL scouts would need to take another look at him when he had previously been considered a late-round prospect.
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Baylor is allowing sacks, turning ball over
If there’s been one weakness for Baylor’s offense, it’s been the number of sacks it’s allowed and the handful of turnovers it’s given away.
Baylor is giving up 1.8 sacks per game. The offensive line was graded poorly in its season opener against Auburn, and improved for the following three games. Last week, it took a step back when allowing 12 pressures, with eight coming from the right side of the offensive line.
With plenty of dropbacks, Kansas State should have opportunities to get after Robertson.
“I feel like we have a lot of dawgs on our defensive line, and this week is really a week to just cut us loose,” defensive end Tobi Osunsanmi said. “I feel like we just need to really cut it loose and really affect the quarterback in the passing game.”
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The Bears are also taking poor care of the ball, giving it up eight times already and having one of the worst turnover margins in the country. In three of five games, the Bears have given up multiple turnovers. They have lost five fumbles, most of which have been lost by receivers.
Wyatt D. Wheeler covers Kansas State athletics for the USA TODAY Network and Topeka Capital-Journal. You can follow him on X at @WyattWheeler_, contact him at 417-371-6987 or email him at wwheeler@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas State football vs Baylor: Can Wildcats slow Bears down?
