It’s Time to Reset Expectations for the Boston Celtics

The 2025-2026 Boston Celtics are exceeding even the most optimistic expectations. This season was supposed to be a retooling year and a gap year when the Celtics would finally pick inside the top-20 in the NBA Draft, maybe even quietly put their thumb on the scale and stealth-tank their way into the lottery.

In hindsight, it should have been obvious that Joe Mazzulla and Jaylen Brown would never take the cowards way out. Thirty-five games into the season, the Boston Celtics are the two seed in the Eastern Conference and it’s time to reset expectations.

If we’re talking about the most surprising teams in the NBA — in a good way — the conversation starts with either the Boston Celtics or the San Antonio Spurs. This is a Celtics team that won 61 games last season and then lost five of its top eight rotation players. Jayson Tatum went down with an Achilles tear. Al Horford, Jrue Holiday, Luke Kornet, and Kristaps Porziņģis were casualties of salary-cap pressure. And not only did they lose some of the league’s best star role players, but they replaced them with completely unproven talent. And yet, the Boston Celtics rank 4th in net rating, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, and Detroit Pistons. They boast the second-ranked offense in the league, and a league average defense (15th), with the lower ranking driven almost entirely by one glaring weakness: defensive rebounding. Zoom in further and over the last 15 games, the Celtics rank first in the NBA in net rating. The Celtics are building the statistical profile of a legitimate championship contender.

I view the success of this team through the lens of a two-headed tiger snake: Joe Mazzulla and Jaylen Brown. Mazzulla assessed the capabilities of his roster to perfection; to make up for their defensive rebounding deficiencies, he has hyper-focused on dominating the possession battle in other phases of the game. Boston turns the ball over less than any team in the league and ranks sixth in offensive rebounding rate. Mazzulla has also changed his defensive philosophy; in years past, it was about not fouling, forcing tough shots, and closing possessions with a rebound. In his endless quest for more possessions, the focus has shifted to forcing more turnovers. Last season, the Celtics ranked 24th in forcing turnovers and this season, they rank 12th. Add it all up, and you get a formula that not only offsets the team’s biggest weakness, but allows them to consistently control the possession battle. Joe Mazzulla should be at the very top of the Coach of the Year ballot.

You can not overstate Jaylen Brown’s role in this improbable Celtics season either. Coaching philosophies mean nothing without buy-in, and buy-in is never an issue when your best player is also your hardest worker. Jaylen Brown was already a lock to have his jersey in the TD Garden rafters when he secured the 2024 Finals MVP, but this season is his most impressive yet. If the season ended today, no one would bat an eye if Jaylen Brown ended up on All-NBA First Team.

Players taking significant development steps in their 10th NBA season is beyond rare, but every time I think Jaylen is at his ceiling, he smashes through it. Jaylen Brown is putting up legitimate MVP numbers: 29.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists on 59% true shooting. He’s also doing it while taking on the challenge of guarding players like Kawhi Leonard. The leadership has been just as impressive. Brown has empowered young players like Jordan Walsh, set the tone daily, and demanded accountability. That leadership has even forced players like Anfernee Simons — a player not known for dirty work — to crash the glass and guard his yard. I am blown away by Jaylen Brown this season.

There was a reason Boston’s projected win total hovered around 41.5 entering the season.

When you throw six late draft picks or undrafted players into your rotation, hitting on one is a win. Hit on two, and the GM gets praised as a roster-building wizard. Hit on all of them? Then it might be time to start asking whether Brad Stevens made a deal with the devil, was touched by powers beyond our comprehension, or maybe both.

Even Jaylen agrees that what the Celtics are doing is not normal.

“I want to speak to how rare it is to have like 5-6 new players come in and add to winning right away. It says a lot about our leadership. It says a lot about our coaching staff, because that does not happen in the NBA, and I think that should get talked about more…most of those guys have not played in the league consistently, and for us to be where we’re at, is a testament to our leadership, our organization.”

The development and immediate impact of this unproven group is the next pillar of this storybook season. Neemias Queta has developed into a defensive anchor that the team can rely on night in and night out. Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez, and Josh Minott are Joe Mazzulla’s Swiss Army knife chaos agents that leave opposing teams stunned in the wake of stocks and offensive rebounds. Luka Garza is earning his Garzilla nickname by mashing people on the offensive glass, while being an offensive connector who is shooting 47% from the three-point line. Baylor Scheierman is earning minutes as an energy guy that will sprinkle in some spicy passes and no-dip three-pointers from the corners. All six of these players have exceeded expectations to varying degrees — just a flabbergasting level of impact from the unproven platoon that Brad Stevens believed in.

The Celtics are not only statistically at the top of the conference with the Pistons and Knicks, but head-to-head, they have proven they can hang. The Celtics are 1-1 against the Knicks and 1-2 against the Pistons, but all three games against the Pistons have gone down to the wire. Now that this team has established that they can play with anyone, especially anyone in the Eastern Conference, it’s time to think bigger. This is Boston after all. Cinderella stories are fun, but if there’s a chance to make a run at Banner 19, then it’s time to act accordingly.

When Payton Pritchard was asked if he takes pride in the Celtics being the two-seed after all the changes this offseason, his response was on brand.

“I take a lot of pride in being first in the East, so we still need some work to get to that point, that’s the main goal.”

So how do the Celtics go from cute story to bona fide championship contenders? When assessing this current version of the Celtics, there is one obvious Achilles heel, no pun intended: defensive rebounding. The Celtics rank 25th in defensive rebounding rate. If the Celtics could just become league average, it would boost their overall defense into top-10 territory. One way to fix it is to acquire one of the best wing rebounders in league history, Jayson Tatum. The Celtics miss a lot of what made Jayson Tatum special, but adding his defensive rebounding should immediately help with the Celtics’ biggest weakness, not to mention it would be nice to get Tatum’s elite scoring, playmaking, and defensive versatility back. One of the best teams in the league may simply be adding a top-5 player at the trade deadline without having to give up a single asset.

Still, relying on Neemias Queta and Luka Garza as playoff bigs makes me a bit queasy. If Boston wants to make a legitimate run at the title, another big man feels necessary. Whether that’s a splash move for Ivica Zubac or an under-the-radar addition like Day’Ron Sharpe, reinforcements for the big man rotation are a must. Either way, Celtics fans should sleep well knowing Brad Stevens is the one guiding them towards Banner 19.