Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight strikers Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov will go to war this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 323.
Winless in his last three, former champion Blachowicz is far removed from the title picture nowadays. A downward slide is to be expected at 42 years of age, but it’s not like the Polish kickboxer is actually fighting poorly. Rather, he’s faced three of the Top Five fighters in his weight class and come up within inches of victory each time!
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Don’t count out Blachowicz just yet.
He’ll be taking a step back in competition here against Guskov, a newer face in the 205-pound mix. The knockout artist from Uzbekistan has won four straight fights all via stoppage, most recently battering Nikita Krylov inside a round.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Blachowicz vs. Guskov Betting Odds
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Jan Blachowicz victory: -142
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Jan Blachowicz via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
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Jan Blachowicz via submission: TBD
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Jan Blachowicz via decision: TBD
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Bogdan Guskov victory: +112
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Bogdan Guskov via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
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Bogdan Guskov via submission: TBD
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Bogdan Guskov via decision: TBD
How Blachowicz Wins
Blachowicz began his UFC career as a skilled kickboxer with an iron chin, and he developed his wrestling and submission skills quite a bit over the years en route to his UFC title. A crafty veteran, Blachowicz’s fatal flaw has long been his conditioning, which is unlikely to improve now at this age.
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Fortunately, I’m not sure Guskov is a cardio machine himself or the kind of fighter likely to push a grueling wrestling pace. No, Blachowicz will get a kickboxing match, and it’ll be his decision whether or not to test the waters with takedowns.
As the more skilled fighter overall, Blachowicz really just has to be mindful of Guskov’s best weapon, that straight right hand down the pipe. Fortunately, he’s got the sharper jab and longer reach, which should be helpful in preventing Guskov from lining up his right. In addition, Blachowicz could take the right hand away by pinning it with frequent left body/head kicks, staying behind his own lead shoulder, and circling away from Guskov’s power side.
If Blachowicz doesn’t get bombed early, he should be able to counter his foe often and control the exchanges.
How Guskov Wins
Guskov is a banger with full confidence in his right hand. That’s undeniably his money shot, the weapon that produces a majority of his victories. A Master of Sport in both MMA and boxing, Guskov is entering his prime at 33 years of age.
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There are two real paths that lead to Guskov winning this fight. First and foremost, he could simply time that perfect right hand and shut off the lights. Blachowicz has only been stopped by strikes twice in his 18-year professional career, but it’s certainly possible given Guskov’s speed and timing.
Alternatively, we could see Guskov level up his skills. He’s training with a great gym in American Top Team, and he’s right at that 10 year point in his MMA career where fighters tend to really peak. If Guskov shows off more of his boxing than just the right hand while pushing a high pace, there’s a real chance that he’s able to outwork the older man.
Blachowicz vs. Guskov Prediction
Blachowicz is still a crafty customer. I wouldn’t pick him against the hottest up-and-coming wrestler with a relentless gas tank, but that person doesn’t exist at Light Heavyweight. He did well enough on the feet versus Magomed Ankalaev, Alex Pereira, and Carlos Ulberg that I think he can handle Guskov, who still looks to be the same fighter that repeatedly ran into Volkan Oezdemir’s counter shots a couple years back.
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At some point, Blachowicz will fall off completely and leave the Top 10. I don’t think the day is here just yet, however, nor does Guskov appear to be the man for the job.
