Any concerns about the health of Major League Baseball’s 2025-26 free agent market vanished at the general managers meetings in Las Vegas last week. With the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement barely a year away and an extended lockout potentially crippling the sport in 2027, teams made it clear they are forging ahead without allowing the uncertainty of the future to derail the present.
Nowhere is that clearer than with the unlikeliest of winter spenders: the Pittsburgh Pirates. The largest free agent contract the Pirates have ever handed out was more than a decade ago: three years and $39 million to Francisco Liriano. They are consistently a bottom-five payroll team. And yet the Pirates were primed to spend more than twice that on Josh Naylor before he re-upped with Seattle for five years and $92.5 million in the first signing of the winter on Sunday night — and they’re considering other possibilities to supplement Paul Skenes and a rotation that was among the five best in MLB in the second half.
The most exciting: The Pirates are strongly considering giving 19-year-old Konnor Griffin, the consensus minor league player of the year in 2025, the opportunity to win their big league shortstop job, sources told ESPN. While the idea is by no means decided, the 6-foot-4, 225-pound Griffin wowed scouts by hitting .333/.415/.527 with 21 home runs and 65 stolen bases in his first professional season after going to Pittsburgh with the No. 9 pick in the 2024 draft. The internal models for multiple teams have off-the-charts projections for Griffin, who has also dabbled in center field.
The decision is complicated. The last teenage position player to debut in the big leagues was Juan Soto in 2018. A talent of Griffin’s caliber shouldn’t be rushed because a team wants to win now. And the concerns over the new basic agreement are particularly acute for a team such as Pittsburgh: If the doomsday scenario occurs and 2027 is lost, players will recoup lost service time, and with the potential for players to negotiate a shorter window to reach free agency, the Pirates don’t want to start Griffin’s clock early only for the rules to whipsaw and punish them for it.
Still, the mere thought of pushing Griffin to team up with a fresh batch of free agent bats and a front-line rotation is tantalizing enough to make the Pirates a team to watch this winter. The market is unlikely to kick into high gear until after Thanksgiving, sources said, but once it starts burbling, it’s going to be a busy offseason.
Here’s what you need to know.
Free agent hitters
The two Kyles
Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber, to be clear, are in different classes despite sharing a first name and the same agent. Tucker is unquestionably the top player among free agents this winter, a 28-year-old with a career OPS+ of 140 and the sort of power-speed-defense combination that will secure him at least $300 million and perhaps more than $400 million. Schwarber, 32, is coming off the best walk year of any free agent, crushing a National League-leading 56 home runs, knocking in an NL-best 132 runs and playing in all 162 games.
The demand for Schwarber is high, which is no surprise considering he won’t get more than a five-year deal because of his age and positional inflexibility as a full-time designated hitter. Of course, when you hit like Schwarber, neither age nor position matters. Teams have made that abundantly clear, all the way from the obvious suitors (the Philadelphia Phillies are fiending to re-sign him) and the not-so-obvious (yes, Pittsburgh is in on Schwarber as well).
Because of his production and leadership skills, Schwarber fits just about anywhere. The Boston Red Sox are still kicking themselves for letting him go after 2021. The New York Mets stealing him from Philadelphia would be a coup. The Toronto Blue Jays want a left-handed complement to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Cincinnati is 40 minutes south of where Schwarber grew up. The Detroit Tigers need some thump in their lineup.
The contract offers are likely to bump Schwarber’s average annual value to more than $30 million a year, and the winning team won’t be getting a one-dimensional player. Schwarber has among the best plate discipline in the game, and beyond that, he has evolved tremendously. Left-handed relief pitchers used to carve him up. Coming into 2025, in 706 career plate appearances against them, he had hit 20 home runs with a .664 OPS. In 143 plate appearances against lefty relievers this past season, Schwarber whacked 14 homers — the most in a single season by a hitter from either side — with a 1.147 OPS.
In all likelihood, Schwarber’s signing will precede Tucker’s. Because of his expected contract number and the associated 10-year-plus deal, Tucker’s offers will be more limited — but still plenty ripe.
The Blue Jays, coming off their first World Series berth in more than three decades, have no plans to slow down. They are considered the favorite by other executives to land Tucker. If Schwarber leaves Philadelphia, Tucker makes plenty of sense there, particularly as the Phillies pivot to get younger, with 21-year-old Justin Crawford expected to enter spring training as the favorite to win their center field job.
Though Tucker makes sense for a Los Angeles Dodgers team in need of a productive outfield bat, sources said their interest is more likely to be on a high-dollar, shorter-term deal. Top free agents, particularly those Tucker’s age (29 in January), rarely sacrifice years for dollars, making Los Angeles a longer shot. Tucker’s desire to win, though, will be a guiding principle, keeping the New York Yankees and Mets — despite the presence of their MVP-caliber right fielders, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto — in the mix for the time being.
Other teams that could make sense for Tucker include the San Francisco Giants (who have the payroll flexibility) and Baltimore Orioles (who are likelier to use their financial muscle on pitching, though president of baseball operations Mike Elias did draft Tucker as Houston’s scouting director in 2015).
One team not expected to meet Tucker’s expected contract price: the Chicago Cubs, who traded third baseman Isaac Paredes and right fielder Cam Smith to Houston to rent Tucker in his final season before free agency and will reap a draft pick around No. 75 if he signs elsewhere.
Bo’s big swing
Among the hottest names this winter is Bo Bichette, who, at 27 years old, is the youngest domestic free agent available. Bichette made himself upward of nine figures with an excellent 2025, in which he hit .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. A knee injury kept him out for most of the postseason, but he returned for the World Series and hit .348/.444/.478 with a mammoth Game 7 home run.
Between his bat-to-ball skills and power, Bichette is a rare middle-infield, middle-of-the-order bat. The questions about his defense are fair — he was among the worst shortstops in baseball this past season — but a move to second base (where, still hobbled, he played ably in the World Series) or third base is reasonable.
But teams haven’t been scared off of Bichette at shortstop, according to sources. Beyond the Blue Jays, who have Andrés Giménez to play short but still could conceivably sign Tucker and Bichette, the Atlanta Braves and Detroit have holes at the most important position on the infield. The Yankees could use an upgrade over Anthony Volpe and Jose Caballero. The Mets aren’t inclined to replace Francisco Lindor at shortstop, but they do have room to improve at second and third, as do the Phillies.
Even if there isn’t a perfect fit for Bichette, the opportunity to land a 27-year-old infielder with a premium bat and not have to give up any prospects is rare. The last player of Bichette’s caliber and age to hit free agency was Carlos Correa, and even after a pair of contract agreements that were invalidated because of medical questions, he received a six-year, $200 million deal from the Minnesota Twins.
Whether the contract price for Bichette stays in the range that would allow lower-payroll teams to enter the fray remains to be seen. But after the GM meetings, it’s clear there will be no shortage of opportunities for Bichette.
The Boras 3
In the 2023-24 offseason, four high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger — didn’t land the megadeals they sought. Instead, all signed short-term, opt-out-laden contracts during spring training. The move worked out well for Snell, who later signed for $182 million, and Chapman, who got $150 million, but backfired on Montgomery, who struggled and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery. This winter will be the ultimate determinant as to Bellinger’s fate.
He is one of three potential nine-figure bats represented by Boras, joining third baseman Alex Bregman and first baseman Pete Alonso, who himself lingered on the market last season before signing a short-term deal that allowed him to opt-out this winter. Alongside Tucker, Schwarber and Bichette, they are the best half-dozen position players in free agency, and their varied skill sets are attracting a wide variety of interest.
Beyond the Yankees, who would like a return engagement with Bellinger — particularly if Trent Grisham rejects a qualifying offer — the Blue Jays see him as a perfectly good alternative to Tucker. And the Dodgers, who nontendered Bellinger three years ago, have expressed interest as they peruse the outfield market.
The Red Sox love Bregman, who opted out of the final two years and $80 million of his contract, and won’t close the door on a reunion despite having Marcelo Mayer ready to play third. Detroit and Chicago, which pursued him last winter but came up short, will rejoin the fray, with Philadelphia lurking as it juggles multiple potential paths.
Alonso’s willingness to play designated hitter offers the sorts of avenues a first-base-only mindset wouldn’t. He could stay with the Mets, move up to Boston, bring Cincinnati the big bat it desperately needs or, if Ryan Mountcastle is traded or nontendered, split the first-base and DH jobs in Baltimore with rookie Samuel Basallo, who will also spend plenty of time at catcher.
For all three, the expectation of a big-dollar deal is high. How quickly they materialize will help shape the winter ahead.
The two Japanese sluggers
Arguably the two best hitters in Japan are headed to MLB this winter. Munetaka Murakami is a 25-year-old left-handed hitter with top-of-the-scale raw power and as high a ceiling as any free agent, domestic or international. Kazuma Okamoto is a 29-year-old right-handed hitter with tremendous bat-to-ball skills to complement his power. Both are third basemen with the ability to play first.
Their prospects in free agency aren’t quite as similar as their backgrounds. Because of his age and power potential, Murakami — who entered the posting system Nov. 8 to facilitate the move from the Tokyo Yakult Swallows to MLB and must sign by 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 22 — will attract an array of interest. From big-market teams seeking a corner infielder to lower-revenue teams that typically don’t have access to players of Murakami’s age and potential, he is in line to land the first nine-figure deal for a Japanese position player coming to MLB. Breaking Sadaharu Oh’s single-season Nippon Professional Baseball home run record by a Japanese-born player in 2022 has made Murakami joining MLB years in the making.
Okamoto, on the other hand, has yet to be posted. Once he is, he will command a shorter-term deal but could appeal more to teams looking for present production. In 293 plate appearances this year for the Yomiuri Giants, he hit .327/.416/.598 with 15 home runs, 49 RBIs and only 33 strikeouts. The combination of such damage with so few punchouts is alluring, particularly compared to Murakami’s 36.7% whiff rate, the third highest among NPB players with at least 200 plate appearances.
Even if whiffing that much is inherently bad, it’s not altogether disqualifying. Just look at Nick Kurtz: He missed on 35.5% of the swings he took and still was named American League Rookie of the Year and finished 12th in MVP voting. That’s the kind of pop Murakami has, and it gives him his choice of teams.
Among those targeting first basemen: the Mets, Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers and, yes, even the Pirates.
The best of the rest
With Naylor off the board, here are eight other free agent bats likely to draw significant interest.
Gleyber Torres, second baseman: If he doesn’t accept the $22.025 million qualifying offer Tuesday, Torres will indicate that he’s in line for a multiyear deal one season after settling for a pillow contract with Detroit. Torres’ high on-base percentage, low strikeout rate and ability to hit the ball out of the park make for a particularly attractive option, especially considering his age (28).
Trent Grisham, outfielder: Grisham is in a similar boat to Torres, with a qualifying offer hanging over him. He’s a little older (29), plays a more valuable position (center field) and is coming off a career year (.235/.348/.464). Grisham’s 34 home runs are impressive — and perhaps slightly anomalous, seeing as he had only nine doubles and one triple in 581 plate appearances.
Eugenio Suárez, third baseman: Want a home run hitter who won’t cost nine figures? This is your guy. Suarez hit 49 home runs in 2025 and, at 34 years old, reaches free agency hopeful that teams will seize on his power potential and look past his paltry on-base percentage (.298 this past season, .328 for his career). He’s likely to wind up on a short-term, high-dollar deal for a team that needs a third baseman.
Ha-Seong Kim, infielder: When Kim opted out of a $16 million payday with Atlanta, he did so abundantly aware of how few big league-caliber infielders are on the free agent market. He could choose a multiyear deal or a hefty one-year payday that would put him in position to hit free agency again at 31 — perhaps coming off a standard Kim season.
Jorge Polanco, infielder: One of Seattle’s playoff standouts and a target of the Mariners to re-sign this winter, Polanco is 32, having debuted in 2014 as a 20-year-old. Between his age and his difficulty in staying healthy in recent years, Polanco has his issues, but they’re not the sort that will keep teams from trying to sign him. He should do well.
Ryan O’Hearn, first baseman: O’Hearn remade himself after leaving Kansas City, turning to the strong side of a platoon — and then managing to finish 2025 with a better OPS against left-handed pitchers than righties. At 32 years old, O’Hearn won’t command a huge deal, but between his production and lack of strikeouts, he’ll have no trouble finding multiple years.
J.T. Realmuto, catcher: The only full-time starting-caliber free agent catcher, Realmuto should have high interest that includes returning to Philadelphia or decamping to any number of teams looking to upgrade at the position. At age 35 on Opening Day, Realmuto won’t demand more than two years, putting the three-time All-Star in play for playoff teams and aspirants alike.
Short-term bets
A dozen other bats worth monitoring.
Harrison Bader, center fielder: Bader raked during his two months in Philadelphia (aided by a .415 average on balls in play) and always plays excellent center-field defense.
Marcell Ozuna, designated hitter: Though his power cratered, Ozuna walked at a higher rate than everyone in MLB except Judge and Soto.
Mike Yastrzemski, outfielder: The mediocre outfield market should benefit the 35-year-old, who’s as consistent a two-win player as there is.
Willi Castro, utility: Each of the past two seasons, Castro has looked like an everyday fixture in the first half before collapsing after the All-Star break.
Rob Refsnyder, outfielder: The 34-year-old crushes lefties, hitting .302/.399/.560 against them in 138 plate appearances this season and posting an .826 career OPS against southpaws.
Rhys Hoskins, first baseman: A three-true-outcomes adherent, Hoskins knows how to get on base and hit the ball over the fence.
Danny Jansen, catcher: Though his defensive numbers went backward, Jansen remains a power threat, especially against left-handed pitching.
Lane Thomas, outfielder: After an injury-plagued season, Thomas hits free agency at 30 years old with the potential to cash in next winter.
Cedric Mullins, center fielder: A brutal year tanked his free agency prospects, which will leave Mullins on a one-year deal as he looks to bounce back in 2026 for next winter.
Paul Goldschmidt, first baseman: The NL MVP four years ago, Goldschmidt is best suited as a platoon first baseman and DH who pummels left-handed pitching.
Max Kepler, outfielder: Despite below-average offense and defense in 2025, Kepler’s expected numbers remained high, giving hope that more remains within.
Michael Conforto, outfielder: Conforto never turned around his season with the Dodgers, leaving him in little position to be choosy when it comes to his next deal.
The big question
At 28 years old, Luis Arráez is one of the youngest players available. Coming into the 2025 season, he won three consecutive batting titles. And this year, he led the NL in hits. It sounds like the résumé of someone primed to cash in.
Instead, teams can’t help but see Arráez for everything he isn’t. Like, a passable defender. Or a source of any power. Or even a halfway decent baserunner.
Arráez is perhaps the greatest litmus test yet for the power of batting average in the modern game. He is an absolute contact savant, striking out only 21 times in 675 plate appearances this season, the lowest strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn was fanned 15 times in 577 plate appearances 30 years ago. And in a game in which offense has been poisoned by the punchout, Arráez’s ability is worth a lot.
Just not enough, in the minds of executives, to warrant a big-money deal. Arráez won’t be begging for a job, by any means, but because poor defense pushed him from second to first base — where he was not particularly adept, either — and his .292 batting average was barely better than a league-average hitter, his contract offers won’t be bustling.
Arráez is genuinely great at what he does. What he does so great just happens not to be valued the way it used to be.
Free agent pitching
The postseason — and especially the World Series — reminded the industry that not only does starting pitching still matter, it can serve as the foundation for a championship. Every team covets good starting pitching, and with the trade market constantly in flux — we’ll get to that later — free agency offers the cleanest opportunity to get it. Spend the money and it’s yours.
Candidates for the biggest deal
Just how much money gets thrown around on Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and Tatsuya Imai, regarded as the front-line starters this winter, is the operative question. Considering the wide swath of teams prioritizing starting arms — the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays are all playing in the top-of-the-market sandbox, with the Angels, Astros, A’s, Giants and others lurking — a hefty payday awaits all three.
Each brings something different. Valdez is an innings-eating, ground ball-inducing paragon of consistency. Over the past four years, Logan Webb leads MLB with 820 innings. Valdez ranks second with 767â…”, more than 30 innings ahead of Zac Gallen, who ranks third. On top of that, Valdez’s ground ball rate of 60% is tops among all starters. Only two pitchers with more than 500 innings have given up a lower home run rate than Valdez’s 0.68 per nine innings: Webb and Max Fried.
Valdez is the antithesis of a modern pitcher. He leans heavily on a sinker and throws only two other pitches, a curveball and changeup. He strikes out plenty of hitters, but not because he’s trying to rack up punchouts. And if there are any questions about his big-game bonafides, don’t forget he twice outdueled Zack Wheeler in the 2022 World Series.
Cease is a modern pitcher in that he wields a big fastball, throws his slider more than any of his other pitches and records strikeouts aplenty. His K rate of 11.03 per nine is eighth in MLB over the past four years. He still walks too many hitters — he’s among the top 10 in walk rate — and is coming off his second 4.50-plus ERA season in three years.
But his ceiling, as seen with a 2.20 ERA in 2022, is higher than Valdez’s, and free agency is nothing if not a paradise for dreamers. There will be a team that sees in Cease untapped potential and is willing to give him a nine-figure contract for it. Why? The stuff is nasty, and after Wheeler parlayed nasty stuff into a bonanza of a deal for the Phillies, any pitcher with premium offerings gets requisite love in free agency.
Which brings us to Imai. The 27-year-old is the gem of the NPB pitching class, coming off a season in which he posted a 1.92 ERA and nearly four times as many strikeouts as walks. At a wispy 5-foot-11, he cuts a similar figure to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and similarly runs his fastball up to 99 mph. His pitch mix is likely to change when he comes stateside, with more than 80% of his pitches for the Saitama Seibu Lions this year either four-seam fastballs or sliders. He also has a splitter, a changeup, a curve and a sinker.
Though the opinion on Imai varies significantly among teams — some are just not in on him — the interest in him is strong, and he could easily wind up the highest-paid starter this winter because of his age. (His posting window, sources said, is expected to open Wednesday and would close at 5 p.m. on Jan. 2.) The over/under on all three is $150 million, with Valdez’s strongest appeal to teams with good infield defenses and smaller ballparks, Cease’s to teams that believe their coaching staff has the ability to extract more from talented arms and Imai’s to teams that see the Dodgers’ foray into Japan and don’t want to fall further behind than they are already.
As with Murakami and Okamoto, that sentiment is prevalent this winter, sources said, and because of it the three most talented Japanese players could wind up with bigger contracts than anticipated, even before the associated posting fees.
Others in line for a big payday
Multiple teams, sources said, have left-hander Ranger Suárez atop their list of the best pitchers available this winter. Though some wondered if right-hander Michael King would accept a qualifying offer, he’s likelier to land a contract in the range of Nathan Eovaldi‘s three-year, $75 million deal from last winter. Right-hander Zac Gallen won’t accept a qualifying offer, either, and should be able to choose between a multiyear deal or short-term pillow contract.
Suárez is an anomalous sort of free agent: the soft tosser who’s still going to get paid anyway. Because he has never thrown 160 innings in a season, he is unlikely to reach the financial level of the big three starters. At the same time, the 30-year-old Suárez’s consistency as a tough-to-square-up, low-walk, low-homer left-hander capable of going deep into games earns him enough fans to have a very good number of options.
If not for injuries that limited him to 15 starts this year, King might be at the top of the free agent pitchers list. Even teams that don’t want to play in the nine-figure range see King as a nine-figure sort of talent, and because of his expected price for a deal, high- and low-revenue teams will both be in the mix.
Gallen is coming off the worst season of his career, with a 4.83 ERA, but he still managed to book 192 innings. The home run ball vexed him, with a career-high 31 given up — nearly twice as many as he averaged in his previous four seasons. Some teams see that as a sign that worse is ahead. Others believe it’s an outlier and that he’s in line for some positive regression. Gallen will benefit most from the high prices being asked on the trade market, which serves to turn teams back to signings. Because they don’t come with any associated player costs like a trade, free agents who are patient can wait out the trade market and profit upon teams’ pivots.
Short-term starter bets
Shota Imanaga, left-handed starter: The Cubs turned down a three-year, $57.75 million option on Imanaga, paving the way to his free agency, and he will wind up with two or three years. Like Gallen, he needs to control the home run ball after yielding 31 in 144â…” innings, including nine first-inning shots.
Brandon Woodruff, right-handed starter: Woodruff’s return from a major shoulder surgery that caused him to sit out the 2024 season and more than half of 2025 couldn’t have gone much better. Even with 3 mph missing from his fastball, he added a cutter and remains an elite strikeout pitcher. If he doesn’t stay with Milwaukee, the only team for which he ever has played, Woodruff would be a great fit in Atlanta.
Merrill Kelly, right-handed starter: The 37-year-old Kelly is a consistently good workhorse, soaking up innings annually and leaning on a six-pitch mix, with none thrown more than 26% of the time. The art of location matters, and whether it’s his fastball, cutter or changeup, he knows how to command all of them well enough that teams will want him for multiple years.
Lucas Giolito, right-handed starter: Even though he ended the season on the injured list, the 31-year-old Giolito is back to throwing and coming off his best year in almost half a decade. Models won’t like his dip in strikeout rate, but Giolito’s fastball plays above its velocity and his 15 starts giving up one or fewer earned runs this year ranked 11th in MLB — behind 10 pitchers who were either All-Stars or received Cy Young votes.
Chris Bassitt, right-handed starter: Bassitt is a pro’s pro, a 36-year-old who didn’t spend one second bellyaching about whether he should be in the Blue Jays’ rotation come October. Toronto needed him out of the bullpen; he said OK — and proceeded to give up only one run in 8â…” innings with 10 strikeouts. Wherever he winds up, he’s the ideal candidate to play veteran leader while still booking productive numbers.
Cody Ponce, right-handed starter: Ponce, a former second-round pick, went to Korea, remade his body, gained three ticks on his fastball, learned a splitter and is going to land the largest deal for a KBO-to-MLB jump. His stuff will play in a rotation — perhaps in San Francisco, where he can join his brother-in-law, 49ers tight end George Kittle.
Zack Littell, right-handed starter: Littell’s 186â…” innings ranked 11th in MLB — one inning behind Skenes, tied with Bryan Woo, an inning more than Hunter Brown. His stuff isn’t overwhelming, but Littell’s fastball works at 92 mph, and for the past five years he has thrown the pitch that everyone wants these days: the splitter.
Adrian Houser, right-handed starter: None of Houser’s pitches pop on stuff models, but his near-50% ground ball rate and career home run rate of 0.90 per nine innings makes him a perfectly capable back-end starter for a team looking not to break the bank.
Max Scherzer, right-handed starter: At 41, Scherzer plans to keep pitching, and whether he joins his close friend Tony Vitello in San Francisco, returns to finish the job in Toronto or joins his eighth team elsewhere, the guy who started Game 7 of the World Series will tack on more numbers to a résumé that will wind up with first-ballot Hall of Fame entry.
Justin Verlander, right-handed starter: Another no-doubt Cooperstown plaque-in-waiting, Verlander will be 43 on Opening Day and still shows flashes of his best years. Over the last 10 weeks of the season, he posted a 2.60 ERA in 72â…” innings. His peripherals also were good. Wherever he goes, Verlander will get himself that much closer to 300 wins. (He’s 34 shy at the moment.)
Starter … or reliever?
Much like Clay Holmes last year and Seth Lugo and Michael King before him, Brad Keller is seen by some teams as the perfect starter-to-reliever-back-to-starter conversion. Keller, 30, was one of the best relievers in baseball this past season, with his velocity jumping 3.5 mph and his slider turning into one of the game’s finest as he moved from the rotation to the bullpen.
Worst-case scenario — a la Jordan Hicks — Keller fails at starting but returns to relieving. Or perhaps he becomes a Nick Martinez or Michael Soroka, two more free agents this winter whose ability to swing between roles has become one of their hallmarks. The same could be said for Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin, a pair of left-handers returning from Japan, or right-hander Jon Duplantier, who finally found control — and success.
None of them is set up to do as well as Keller. One good season in the bullpen, and he’s going to get a three-year deal. Whether it’s to start or relieve is up to the people paying.
The closers
There are a handful of closers available in a wide variety of makes and models, which is perfect for a reliever-hungry market that includes the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets, Braves, Pirates, Marlins, Giants and Angels, among others.
And it starts with Edwin DÃaz, arguably the best in the game. At 31, he might not get a repeat of the five-year, $102 million deal he opted out of after the third season but should wind up with at least a four-year, $80 million contract, even when saddled by a qualifying offer. The Mets want him back, but they might not want him as much as other teams — or players.
New York is in on Devin Williams, whose connections to those in the Mets organization, including president of baseball operations David Stearns, date to their time together with the Brewers. Williams is coming off the worst season of his career with the Yankees, but his peripheral numbers were excellent and his stuff still graded out well-above-average. Williams has suitors from coast to coast, though the Mets are mulling the opportunity to sign DÃaz and Williams to head up a bullpen in need of a total restructuring.
One closer who won’t be returning to the Mets is Ryan Helsley, though his implosion in New York after the trade deadline hasn’t hindered his market. Helsley is the perfect example of the modern adage: Do not tell me what you did, tell me what you’re projected to do. And Helsley, with his 100 mph fastball and 90 mph slider blowing up stuff models, is going to get paid for it. Coming off a typical year, he’d be looking at $80 million-plus. To get him in the range of $40 million to $50 million feels like a bargain to teams.
Robert Suarez could wind up in the same vicinity, though at 35 on Opening Day, his age will be the cudgel teams use to push back against his consistent performance. Suarez’s fastball is a true weapon, hard and heavy and problematic to barrel. And when it comes to weapons, the fifth pitcher regarded as a high-end closer, Pete Fairbanks, added a cutter in the second half that complemented his ride fastball and slider in textbook fashion. The 31-year-old Fairbanks will get two years, and whether he’s pitching in the ninth or high-leverage moments before that, he’ll be an upgraded version of what he has been since 2020: a top 20 reliever in baseball.
Other top relievers
Tyler Rogers, right-handed reliever: He’s one of the softest throwers in MLB. And it doesn’t matter. He just gets outs.
Raisel Iglesias, right-handed reliever: Once he wrangled his home run issues, Iglesias posted a 1.25 ERA in 43â…“ innings after June 9. He’s still got it.
Luke Weaver, right-handed reliever: Closing experience in the Bronx will steel any reliever, and though injuries interrupted Weaver’s 2025, he’s still a dynamic late-inning option.
Kyle Finnegan, right-handed reliever: For the first month after the trade deadline, Finnegan was the best reliever in baseball. Throwing his splitter more was the key.
Phil Maton, right-handed reliever: With a slow curve that’s one of the best pitches in baseball, Maton thrived with nearly 12 strikeouts per nine despite barely cracking 90 with his other main offering, a cutter.
Shawn Armstrong, right-handed reliever: Batters hit .159 against Armstrong over 70 innings, and only Aroldis Chapman allowed fewer baserunners per inning than him.
Drew Pomeranz, left-handed reliever: If he stays healthy, his fastball is elite and his performance exceedingly desirable.
Steven Matz, left-handed reliever: An ideal starter-to-reliever transition where the stuff played up.
Caleb Thielbar, left-handed reliever: His breaking balls are vexing to left-handed hitters.
Caleb Ferguson, left-handed reliever: Three fastballs — sinker, four-seam, cutter — and a curveball makes for one hell of an arsenal.
Sean Newcomb, left-handed reliever: A legitimate five-pitch mix, headlined by a dastardly curve.
Danny Coulombe, left-handed reliever: Every year it’s the same. He throws 90 and nobody can hit him.
Taylor Rogers, left-handed reliever: The former closer — and twin brother of Tyler — is more experience than stuff these days.
Also: Pierce Johnson (RHP), Seranthony Dominguez (RHP), David Robertson (RHP), Chris Martin (RHP), Kirby Yates (RHP), Kenley Jansen (RHP), Tyler Kinley (RHP), Jakob Junis (RHP), Jonathan Loaisiga (RHP), Tommy Kahnle (RHP), Ryne Stanek (RHP), Hoby Milner (LHP), Gregory Soto (LHP), Andrew Chafin (LHP), Justin Wilson (LHP), Jalen Beeks (LHP), Brent Suter (LHP)
Trades
The big question
Will the Tigers deal Tarik Skubal?
There is no consensus throughout the industry. Some are convinced the Tigers will move the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner because, as one person said, “They have to.” By which he means if the Tigers are not going to sign Skubal to a long-term contract before he hits free agency following the 2026 season — the chasm between the parties is wide, though in reality not anywhere close to the quarter-billion-dollar figure some reports said — then it would be malpractice not to get the enormous return package a year of his services would bring.
The other side argues that the Tigers would not only be doing a disservice to their 2026 roster by trading Skubal but to their clubhouse, which could rightfully question just how invested Detroit is in winning next season if it’s trading the best pitcher in the world. Sometimes the right move is the wrong move, and this would be the foremost example of that.
Ultimately, what Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris decides to do will be dictated by others. If another team so thoroughly blows away Harris with a package of players who can join the Tigers’ next-generation core of shortstop Kevin McGonigle, center fielder Max Clark and catcher/first baseman Josue Briceño and Thayron Liranzo, the prospect of an even greater chance of winning in 2028 and 2029 and 2030 might be too tempting to turn down. Sometimes you have to sacrifice one year for the sake of many years.
Whatever the decision, it’s not easy. Only a handful of teams have the prospect depth and urgency to pull off such a deal. The Dodgers clearly fall into that category, though their rotation is so good already that they’re focusing their energy on outfielders and relievers. The Mets would be perfect, particularly seeing as owner Steve Cohen wouldn’t blink at giving out the largest contract ever to a pitcher. The Red Sox pairing Skubal with Garrett Crochet at the top of their rotation would give them two of the three best pitchers in baseball. The Orioles fit the bill, though with young big leaguers rather than prospects. The Cubs could scrape together enough, but it would gut their system. The Yankees have the upper-level pitching depth Detroit lacks. The Mariners have the players but not the desire, even if Skubal did go to the University of Seattle. And while the Brewers could easily put together perhaps the most suitable package, they’re typically the ones who trade impending free agents, not acquire them at a 150% premium.
In the end, the Tigers’ decision will be informed by the markets that surround it. If teams can upgrade with a player who is 75% of Skubal at 50% the price, they will. Until that is no longer an option, teams simply won’t bend over backward to overpay, regardless of how appetizing a rotation helmed by the ace of aces would be. Anyway, they’ve got plenty of other options.
Quick hits
The Cardinals are open for business. Nolan Arenado is almost certain to waive his no-trade protection and move. Willson Contreras could, too. The biggest prize is utilityman Brendan Donovan, whose departure could pave the way for the ascent of top prospect J.J. Wetherholt. Others who could move include JoJo Romero and infielder Nolan Gorman.
Philadelphia has tried to trade Nick Castellanos and his $20 million salary. So far, no bites.
Beyond not picking up Fairbanks’ $11 million option, the Rays will listen on offers for Brandon Lowe. Even under new ownership, their payroll remains destitute.
Teams are gauging the cost to acquire Washington shortstop CJ Abrams. It’s not quite Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers in 2021, but a Gore/Abrams package would be tough to beat.
The Rangers are trying to deal outfielder Adolis GarcÃa and catcher Jonah Heim before Friday’s tender deadline. If they can’t get a deal, both are nontender candidates.
The Mets are blowing up plenty. It’s not just Luisangel Acuña or Mark Vientos or Brett Baty — center fielder Brandon Nimmo (who has full no-trade protection) and utilityman Jeff McNeil can also be had.
Teams are trying to get a young bat from the Athletics for controllable starting pitching. They aren’t particularly inclined to mess with one of the best lineups in baseball and will focus on the free agent market.
Pitchers
Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh: Nope. He’s not going anywhere.
Freddy Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee: If Brandon Woodruff accepts a qualifying offer, it drastically increases the chances of a Peralta trade. If Woodruff hits free agency, Peralta almost certainly will stay.
Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati: A minuscule chance he moves. Not quite Skenes, but pretty close.
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Washington: Executives anticipate Gore will be dealt. This is where the specter of an extended lockout is muddying the market. Gore has two years until free agency. Teams will want to price the uncertainty into any potential deal, and that could force new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni to wait until the trade deadline.
Sonny Gray, RHP, St. Louis: Gray is one of three on-the-block Cardinals with no-trade clauses. He has indicated he’s willing to move, and the expectation among other teams is he will.
Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, RHP, Minnesota: Potential trade partners believe the Twins will deal one of their co-aces, not both. Each has the same issue as Gore: a contract that expires during 2027.
Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh: If a market for him appears because of high free agent prices and excessive trade asks, the Pirates won’t hesitate to move him.
Kodai Senga, RHP, New York Mets: He is extremely available, and multiple executives expect him to be traded this winter as the Mets look to overhaul their rotation.
Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami: With Thomas White and Robby Snelling on the come, the Marlins soon could have a rotation surplus. They need bats, and dealing either would satisfy that need.
Brady Singer, RHP, Cincinnati: Freeing up Singer’s expected $12 million salary would give the Reds even more room to make a substantial move on the hitting side.
Kris Bubic, LHP, Kansas City: Teams are trying to pluck some of the Royals’ rotation depth, but because of the shoulder injury that prematurely ended Bubic’s season, the offers are expected to be too light for Kansas City to bite.
Hitters
Outfielders Jarren Duran/Wilyer Abreu, corner OF, Boston: The Red Sox almost surely will deal one of them. There aren’t enough at-bats in the lineup for both, especially if they add another bat in free agency.
Jo Adell/Taylor Ward, OF, Los Angeles Angels: The Angels could be big spenders this winter, one source familiar with their plans said, and while most of those resources will go toward the pitching staff, they could beef up a barren farm system.
Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota: Buxton has a full no-trade clause, so there are automatically impediments to any deal. His desire to leave the only franchise he has ever played for depends on their other moves.
Steven Kwan, LF, Cleveland: Another Class of 2027-28 free agent whose value is in limbo. Still, multiple GMs believe he moves.
Luis Robert Jr., CF, Chicago White Sox: After years of false alarms and diminished value, this might actually be the time Robert finally goes.
