The last time the Indianapolis Colts were considered this strong of a Super Bowl contender was 2014, when they entered Week 10 with 10-1 odds to win the title. They made it to the AFC Championship Game that year.
The Colts started Tuesday with 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, and that improved to 11-1 after acquiring Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets for two first-round draft picks.
The Colts (7-2) obviously believe they have their strongest chance to win their first Lombardi Trophy since the 2006 season as they went all-in for the 25-year-old Gardner, who the Jets made the highest-paid cornerback in the offseason.
Indianapolis travels to Berlin, Germany this weekend to face the Atlanta Falcons (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network), but it’s uncertain if Gardner will be ready in time to play. The Colts are hopeful.
Moving the 2022 No. 4 overall draft pick wasn’t the only major deal the Jets made before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline. They also dealt defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys for a second-round pick in 2026, a first-rounder in 2027 and defensive tackle Mazi Smith.
The Jets are firmly in rebuild mode and have accumulated several high draft picks. But how quickly can they turn things around?
Colts reporter Stephen Holder, Jets reporter Rich Cimini, NFL draft analyst Matt Miller and NFL analysts Matt Bowen and Aaron Schatz break down the trade from various perspectives. And Cowboys reporter Todd Archer weighs in on whether the trade puts the Micah Parsons-to-Green Bay deal in a new perspective.
Do the Colts view this as the last piece of a Super Bowl puzzle?
Holder: Possibly. It’s the most formidable roster they’ve had under current GM Chris Ballard, who has presided over just one playoff victory in nine seasons.
He hasn’t made many big swings like this, and when he has, the results have been mixed. The Colts traded a first-round choice for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner in 2020, and that move netted them one of the team’s best players the past five years. But Ballard’s move to acquire quarterback Carson Wentz with a first-round and a third-round choice in 2021 did not pan out well.
The fact that Ballard is making, perhaps, the boldest move of his career should say quite a lot about the Colts’ current position and their postseason hopes.
What does this trade mean for the Jets?
Cimini: They’re out of the Sauce business, but they have plenty of juice for the 2026 and 2027 offseasons — five first-round picks, including a 2027 first-rounder from the Williams trade. It gives them plenty of draft capital to maneuver for a quarterback, their biggest need.
After a 1-7 start, the Jets’ new regime — Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey — recognized the roster is more deficient than initially anticipated. This will allow them to fill multiple holes. They got an early start, as former Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell was included in the trade. He’s an underperforming receiver with upside, under contract through 2027. He joins John Metchie III, acquired last week, in a revamped receiving corps.
Basically, the Jets are focused on the future. That’s the downside to the trade: How can the current players stay motivated knowing the front office already is thinking ahead to 2026?
If the Jets don’t trade up, what non-QB picks should they target with their five first-round picks over the next two years?
Miller: Quarterback is clearly the Jets’ biggest need but if we’re talking non-QBs, New York needs to rebuild a defense that’s now without its two best players. In the 2026 class, defensive tackle Peter Woods (Clemson) fits what the team needs up front. Should the Jets want to focus on the edge, Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) is playing like a top-five prospect with a three-down skill set that perfectly fits Aaron Glenn’s defense. Offensively, this is still a team in need of skill-position talent to ease the burden on wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Could we see the Jets pair him with a deep threat like Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)?
Looking ahead to 2027 — a draft class that looks to be one of the strongest in a long time — the Jets will have three first-round picks to use on elite prospects such as receivers Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) and Ryan Williams (Alabama), along with edge rusher Colin Simmons (Texas).
Why did the Jets trade Gardner only five months after making him the highest-paid cornerback?
Cimini: They weren’t actively shopping Gardner, but the offer was too good to refuse, especially for a rebuilding team. When they signed the $120 million extension in June, he was trumpeted as a foundational player. Life changes quickly in the NFL. Perhaps the luster wore off. By most metrics, Gardner is having a good season, but he hasn’t played at an elite level since his historic rookie season in 2021. He has no interceptions; in fact, he has only three in 55 career games and his penalty rate has increased.
Clearly, the Jets saw a replaceable player. They’re high on rookie Azareye’h Thomas, who replaced Gardner (concussion) in the last game and played well.
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Rich Eisen approves of Jets’ return in Sauce Gardner trade
Rich Eisen reacts to the Jets trading Sauce Gardner to the Colts for two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell.
Does this trade affect how we should view the Cowboys’ Micah Parsons trade return (two Packers first-round picks and Kenny Clark)?
Archer: Are we trying to say Jerry Jones made out better than expected now? I can’t go there because the timing of those trades. The Colts were up against the trade deadline. The Cowboys carried out the Parsons’ negotiations well into the summer when they had a feeling before the draft that a long-term deal was not likely.
A move in the spring would have allowed the Cowboys a better chance to fill gaps on their defense. Indianapolis made a win-now trade for a young cornerback with benefit of their 7-2 start to the season. The Cowboys made their trade hoping on too many parts that have not come together so far. The true value of the Parsons’ trade will be based on what the Cowboys get with the two first-rounders, either with players or more picks.
How does Gardner fit the Colts’ defensive system under Lou Anarumo?
Bowen: Gardner has the coverage traits to make the easy switch to Anarumo’s scheme. The Colts play a ton of man coverage, which caters to Gardner’s press skills. He’s a rangy defender with the length to challenge receivers at the snap. And Anarumo can now use Gardner in specific matchups, especially on third down, where the Colts have played man on 62.2% of opponent dropbacks, the eighth most in the league.
Let’s not forget that Gardner can patrol the flat in Indy’s Cover 2 looks, too. He also has the lower-body quickness to play off the ball in three-deep coverage. And we could see Anarumo using Gardner to lock the back side of zone coverages, which opens the door for safeties to push to the field side of the formation. While Gardner has been more of a ball disruptor than playmaker during his time in the NFL, his presence in the Colts’ secondary definitely gives Anarumo more flexibility as a defensive playcaller.
What do the metrics say about Gardner’s level of play?
Schatz: Sauce Gardner was stellar in his first couple of seasons for the Jets. He’s back to being excellent this year, as long as you adjust for who he has been covering. However, cornerbacks are notoriously inconsistent in every possible metric, and Gardner is no exception with mediocre play in 2024.
Gardner finished eighth among qualifying cornerbacks in my cornerback coverage DVOA metric in both his rookie year of 2022 and his second season, 2023. Last year, however, he dropped to 64th. He allowed 9.6 yards per play in coverage, one of the worst figures in the league; his coverage DVOA was better because he wasn’t targeted frequently compared to other starting conerbacks.
This year, Gardner is back to eighth among qualifying cornerbacks. What’s important here are opponent adjustments. Before adjustments, Gardner would have an average coverage DVOA. However, Gardner has covered opposing WR1 on 64% of his coverage snaps, tied for first in the league with Patrick Surtain. That’s included a lot of DK Metcalf, George Pickens (with CeeDee Lamb hurt) and Mike Evans. So once we adjust for opponent strength, Gardner comes out as one of the top cornerbacks in coverage once again.
Gardner was just signed to a record four-year, $120.4 million contract extension. What are the cap implications to the Jets and Colts?
Holder: This deal will be relatively manageable for the Colts in the short term. Because Gardner’s signing bonus was paid by the Jets, and because many of the guarantees are tied to option bonuses, the salary-cap implications are minimal for a contract of this size.
The Colts will pay roughly half of Gardner’s $1.25 million base salary in 2025. They’ll pay him in excess of $25 million in 2026, but the cap figure is a meager $9.5 million because option bonuses may be prorated over the life of a contract.
Gardner does have a sizable $13.5 million base salary in 2027 which, when combined with various bonuses, will push his cap figure to $20.9 million. In 2028, 2029 and 2030, Gardner is scheduled to have cap numbers of $26.2 million, $36.1 million and $36.1 million. Those numbers can be reduced or eliminated through restructures or via releasing Gardner.
