Many consider Toledo a live dog entering Saturday’s Week 1 contest against Kentucky. There is also seems to be a perception that the Cats are slow starters against Group of Six opponents. But that hasn’t been the case in over a half-decade.
During Kentucky’s run to 10-3 in 2018, the Wildcats had some issues in the non-conference. Outside of a blowout victory against an awful Louisville team, both Central Michigan and Middle Tennessee jumped out to early leads against the Wildcats. Kentucky failed to cover as a 17-point and 16-point favorite. That made UK 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 matchups with Group of Six programs.
That has been flipped since 2019. Kentucky is 10-0 outright and 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games against Group of Six Opponents.
| Year | Game | Result |
| 2019 | Kentucky (-11) vs. Toledo | Cats 38, Rockets 24 |
| 2019 | Kentucky (-15) vs. Eastern Michigan | Cats 38, Eagles 17 |
| 2021 | Kentucky (-31) vs. ULM | Cats 45, Warhawks 10 |
| 2021 | Kentucky (-35) vs. New Mexico State | Cats 56, Aggies 16 |
| 2022 | Kentucky (-15) vs. Miami, Ohio | Cats 37, RedHawks 13 |
| 2022 | Kentucky (-26) vs. Northern Illinois | Cats 31, Huskies 23 |
| 2023 | Kentucky (-25) vs. Ball State | Cats 44, Cardinals 14 |
| 2024 | Kentucky (-25.5) vs. Southern Miss | Cats 31, Golden Eagles 0* |
| 2024 | Kentucky (-19) vs. Ohio | Cats 41, Bobcats |
*Game was called early due to weather.
Kentucky has won all of these games by a touchdown-plus and only failed to cover against Northern Illinois in 2022. Ohio won the MAC last season but was forced to play UK down multiple starters. The Cats ended that Week 4 contest with a convincing victory that included 206 rushing yards and 282 passing yards in one of the best games of the year for the offense last season.
Kentucky is currently an 8.5-point favorite for the game against Toledo at BetMGM. This the smallest spread for the Wildcats against a Group of Six foe since the Wildcats lost the season opener to Southern Miss as a six-point favorite in 2016. Toledo finished 2-0 outright against power conference teams last season. The Rockets are 2-6 outright and 4-4 ATS against power conference foes under Candle. The upset wins did not occur until 2024.
The trends lean heavily in Kentucky’s favor heading into this Week 1 matchup.
