DETROIT — On the eve of one of the biggest games of their careers with Detroit, the Tigers are embracing the adrenaline that catapulted them into Friday’s win-or-go-home Game 5 showdown against the Mariners for the right to advance to the AL Championship Series.
And because now is the time to stay busy with individual preparations leading up to first pitch to ensure that each Tiger leaves everything he has on the field at T-Mobile Park, it’s hard to blame Kerry Carpenter for thinking about another chance to face George Kirby.
Seattle announced Kirby, who started Game 1, as the Game 5 starter on Thursday’s off-day. It’s also possible that Luis Castillo, who started Game 2, could be available in relief, as there’s no use in saving an arm for a tomorrow that isn’t guaranteed.
Homer.
Homer.
Homer.
Homer.
Homer.
For the curious, that’s 1,960 feet of I’ve-got-your-number tattooed across three seasons, with an opportunity to add to the legend that has already made Carpenter the only active Major League hitter with at least five career hits against a pitcher when all were homers.
Carpenter is pretty modest about his success against Kirby, offering only a humble, “I tend to see him well,” but the stats are happy to brag where he won’t.
Though he’ll likely see more than one Mariner on the mound during the final battle between the two teams this season, Carpenter’s numbers offer a lot of reasons to love playing in Seattle, too: He’s got a career .381 batting average at T-Mobile Park, higher than any place he’s played. That number includes a double, three homers, nine RBIs and a 1.238 OPS in six games.
At this point in the postseason, teams will deploy any strategy they think can give them an edge, and Carpenter is a big weapon for the Tigers. So much so, that after watching Seattle’s chess moves in Games 1 and 2, Detroit manager A.J. Hinch countered by elevating Carpenter to hit leadoff.
“He gets circled no matter where I put him,” Hinch said prior to Game 3. “I’ve put him first, second, third and I think fourth. And inevitably, every manager on the other side circles him as a point of emphasis.”
Why is that important? A batter’s chance of success against a pitcher increases with the number of times they face each other in a game, with the third time through the lineup generally accepted as the trickiest time for a starter. Nine batters twice through a lineup makes Carpenter the 19th at-bat of the game, and potentially the most difficult for a few reasons.
Carpenter is a much better career hitter against righties (.278) than lefties (.207), and 23 of his 26 regular-season homers this season came against right-handers. Because of that, it might make sense to bring in a fresh lefty arm from the bullpen rather than take the chance that he’ll do something like “tend to see [Kirby] well” for a sixth time.
Reliever Gabe Speier was warming up in the ’pen when Carpenter came to the plate in Game 1, but manager Dan Wilson opted to stick with Kirby, who Carpenter took deep for a two-run homer that allowed the Tigers to take a 2-all tie into the 11th inning and win in extras.
If Wilson isn’t willing to gamble again, removing the starter still only solves the immediate issue of how to handle Carpenter. Seattle is then forced to rely on its overtaxed bullpen for even more crucial innings, just one game after four relievers combined to allow seven runs in 3 2/3 frames in Detroit.
Add in the fact that Hinch stacks the front half of his lineup with lefties, and there really isn’t a perfect way to avoid an unfavorable matchup, particularly if the Tigers’ nine-run outburst on Wednesday night wasn’t a one-off but a sign of things beginning to click at the plate.
“I can pinch-hit at any time, and I have pinch-hit in all times,” Hinch said. “Carp at the top gives him the best chance to create that stress in the 19th at-bat. Maybe it happens before, maybe it happens after.”
Of course, there’s a whole lot more that goes into winning a game than one matchup, especially in October. But for Carpenter, the plan will be as simple as it is familiar: Kirby on the hill, a high-stakes moment and a chance to make it count again.
Whether it ends with slugging home run No. 6 or opening the door for his teammates to pick apart the bullpen, if history holds, Carpenter’s bat will once again be a big part of the storyline.
