The final 31 hours leading up to last week’s Trade Deadline were like nothing we have ever seen.
The frenetic pace from 11 a.m. Wednesday and through 6 p.m. Thursday — there were 50 deals completed during that stretch — felt like a tilt-a-whirl, leaving executives, players, reporters and fans dizzy, wondering what domino would be next to fall.
Yet when asked for his biggest takeaway from last week’s action, one American League executive threw us something of a curveball.
“My big takeaway?” the executive said. “Trades are hard to make.”
The voluminous transaction log suggests otherwise, but his point is well taken. In most cases, a good trade hurts both sides to make; you have to give up talent to acquire talent. When it comes to parting with a top prospect or a controllable big leaguer, it’s often easier said than done.
“The cost of winning is real,” the executive said. “Some teams and decision-makers are willing to pay the cost, and others aren’t.”
Multiple executives pointed to the one guy who always seems willing to pay that cost in an effort to win: Padres general manager A.J. Preller.
Preller made five trades involving 22 players on Deadline day, none bigger than the six-player deal that landed Mason Miller in San Diego. The centerpiece of the deal on the Athletics’ side was shortstop Leo De Vries, who was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball.
“Preller drives everyone nuts!” an AL executive said. “He basically kept multiple teams on the hook as he shopped De Vries. He was a buyer, but kind of operated like a seller in terms of auctioning off De Vries to the highest bidder.”
De Vries became the first Top 5 prospect traded during the season since MLB Pipeline began its rankings in 2004, and only the third Top 10 prospect dealt at the Deadline during that time (Eloy Jiménez and Scott Kazmir are the others).
“The same trend over the last few years has grown, where buying teams really won’t give up top prospects,” a National League executive said. “San Diego is the exception, of course.”
It wasn’t all that long ago that contenders would part with some of their top young players, even if they weren’t among the Top 10 prospects, in exchange for a rental they believed might be the final piece of the championship puzzle.
In 2016 alone, the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for a package led by Gleyber Torres, then dealt Andrew Miller to Cleveland for four players, including Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. New York landed three Top 100 prospects for a pair of rental relievers — each of whom helped their new clubs make a run to the World Series.
Aside from De Vries, the only Top 100 prospects traded last week were Eduardo Tait (No. 56) and Mick Abel (No. 91), who were both sent from the Phillies to the Twins for Jhoan Duran.
“Teams just don’t give up the high-end prospects anymore for rentals,” an NL executive said, “no matter how much they would help your team in the short-term.”
Conversely, teams with controllable players — starting pitchers, specifically — often have asking prices so exorbitant that deals are nearly impossible to come together. That hasn’t always been the case; in 2018, the Pirates acquired Chris Archer — who was under control through 2019 — for three Top 100 prospects: Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz.
Among the notable starters not traded last week were Mitch Keller of the Pirates, Joe Ryan of the Twins, MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, and Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, all of whom were said to have been available to varying extents.
“Selling clubs held tight on their asking prices for controllable starters,” an NL exec said, “which is why I think none of them were moved.”
Another NL executive was struck by the high price of pitching — both starters and relievers — compared with the cost of acquiring position players.
“I think the demand for pitching is so much more and every team is looking for it,” this NL exec said. “If you are moving a position player, you have to have the right team with the exact need unless the player can play multiple positions.”
“Power bats were very much ‘eye of the beholder,’” another NL executive said. “That was a pretty unpredictable market.”
A total of 33 relief pitchers were dealt before the Trade Deadline, with Miller, Duran, David Bednar, Griffin Jax and Ryan Helsley leading the way. All except Helsley are under control for at least one more season, producing some hefty returns for the buyers looking to beef up their bullpen.
“Relief pitcher asks started through the roof and pretty much stayed there,” an NL executive said. “Contenders ultimately paid for what they needed.”
“The big storyline for me was how many teams went all in,” an NL executive said. “There are a lot of clubs that believe they have a chance to win the World Series based on the moves they made — and it’s clear that many of those teams believe they need a lockdown bullpen to win in October.”
Based on the expanded postseason format, this crazy race to the Deadline may become the norm moving forward, with one NL executive predicting more teams operating in the hybrid buy/sell mode we saw with Cleveland and Tampa Bay.
“Most people just wait for the last possible minute to move players,” an NL executive said.
Now that the dust has settled around the league, one NL executive looked back at last week’s frenzy and came to a conclusion.
“All in all,” the exec said, “Definitely one of the more fun Deadlines we’ve had in a while.”
