Los Angeles Olympic Qualification Procedures Present Obstacles

Los Angeles Olympic Qualification Procedures Present New Obstacles for American Swimmers

Around the world, the qualification process for the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles will look different than in previous years. Swimmers aiming to qualify for the newly-added 50-meter stroke events will have to earn their spots the prior fall at a World Cup stop in Europe. Countries seeking to automatically qualify relays for the Olympics will have to be among the top-two in the world the year prior rather than the top-16.

The news, which is pending approval by the International Olympic Committee Executive Board, will force national governing bodies around the world to scrutinize their qualification plans for 2028 and confirm them soon, allowing coaches and athletes times to plan for high-stakes meets. Even USA Swimming, with its signature Olympic Trials returning to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in June 2028 in advance of a home Games, will have decisions to make and situations to consider. New National Team Director Greg Meehan and incoming CEO Kevin Ring will be on the spot quickly.

Among the big questions:

Does USA Swimming send its best swimmers in the 50-meter stroke races to the World Cup circuit, still to be scheduled in the fall of 2027, in hopes of qualifying for LA? Such a decision depart from the organization’s typical handling of World Cup meets, but they’ve never come with Olympic implications before.

If so, will USA Swimming commit to accepting those competition slots in Los Angeles? The assumption is yes, but the World Aquatics guidelines leave room for a nation to decline automatic bids and enter other athletes already qualified for the team in other events, such as the corresponding 100-meter races of the same stroke.

Perhaps USA Swimming chooses that second option, which is the approach by which it treated selection for stroke 50s at World Championships prior to 2025. During that era, the American team considered the stroke 50s second-class events since they were not contested at the Olympics. But now, they carry the same medal prize as other events.

Based on 2025 results, putting the 100-meter swimmers into the 50s would have resulted in a very similar women’s lineup, but not so much on the men’s side.

For the women, Gretchen Walsh (butterfly), Katharine Berkoff and Regan Smith (both backstroke) won medals in the 50s after also doing so in the 100. Kate Douglass and the now-retired Lilly King were on the team for multiple races, leaving only McKenzie Siroky as a 50-only swimmer. But it was a much different story for the men, with Dare Rose, Michael Andrew and Quintin McCarty only making the World Championships team for one-lap races.

We know for sure that there will be no direct qualifying races in the 50-meter events. Thus, for the first time ever, the U.S. Olympic Trials will not produce nearly-guaranteed automatic Olympic bids for the winner and runnerup of each race.

Then there’s the situation with relay alternates — now known as “additional relay competitors,” or ARCs — which suggests a major change for an American group used to taking six women and six men to major competitions from both the 100 and 200 freestyle. Four years ago, a little-known rule limiting a country to 12 relay-only swimmers denied Ryan Held a spot on the American team bound for Tokyo; Held had the lowest world rank of the 13 potential qualifiers, leading to his exclusion.

Now, that limit is down to eight, meaning only the swimmers who place third and fourth in the relay events will be guaranteed spots. Those finishing fifth or sixth will be forced to wait through excruciating days for the final team announcement unless they clinch individual spots in another race.

If this ARC limit had been in place for the Paris Games, one of the nine American swimmers who qualified only for relays would have been left behind. The options would have been Erika Connolly, Matt King, Blake Pieroni and Alex Shackell, all sixth-place swimmers who did not make the team in another event. Two could have been cut from the team if not for Erin Gemmell moving into the individual 200 free when Katie Ledecky and Paige Madden both declined their spots.

This year’s World Championships team only included eight relay-only swimmers, within the allowable limit, but that the number could have been 10. Kieran Smith was the sixth-place swimmer in the 100 free before he was cut to put the Americans under the limit of 26 men. Gemmell was again the fourth-fastest swimmer in the 200 free, only for Ledecky and Torri Huske to opt out of the individual swim.

Expect some serious tension in 2028 as swimmers hoping for relay spots wait to learn their fates. At last year’s Trials, the 200 free and 100 free were concluded by day five, and the number of relay-only swimmers was 12. Two days would pass before Caeleb Dressel captured his first of two individual wins, and Simone Manuel did not secure her place in Paris until the final women’s race of the competition.

Manuel was at the center of roster situation for the Tokyo Olympics. Brooke Forde, then her teammate at Stanford, had finished sixth in the 200 free but had to wait until the very end of the meet to know for sure if she would make the team. Entering the 50 free final, Forde needed Abbey Weitzeil to claim her place on the team in that event in order to be safe.

In the aftermath, Forde had plenty to celebrate, with Manuel conquering overtraining syndrome to claim the win and Weitzeil earning second place. Expect may more of those scenarios in the coming Olympic cycle and beyond.

The American team has faced roster crunches for the Tokyo Olympics and World Championships in 2023 and 2025, with swimmers left behind on both occasions. In the future, more will find themselves in such unenviable position. The days of cut-and-dried selection meets are over.

There is likely to be less drama on the women’s side, with a string of multi-event stars headlining that team. It’s a different story for the American men, whose already complicated path to international teams includes a new obstacle.