Not many outside of Louisville football’s locker room are giving the Cardinals much of a chance to beat No. 2 Miami on Friday night. The Vegas oddsmakers have the Hurricanes favored by 13 ½ points.
They have the better offensive line. Better edge rushers on defense. Better quarterback. Better receivers.
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In a season that has brought the fair-weather fans back on board, the Canes have the benefit of a true home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium, too.
Louisville has an edge, and that is coaching.
And coach Jeff Brohm has had an extra week to prepare and that, in and of itself, may just be enough to help the Cards pull off an upset.
His record against top-five teams in the regular season at Purdue and U of L is a combined 3-0. The first win came when the Boilermakers started the 2018 season just 3-3 before upending No. 2 Ohio State 49-20.
U of L’s roster doesn’t have a lot of success to speak of against top-10 teams. Only a few played in the 2023 ACC championship game when the Cards lost to No. 4 Florida State, and fewer still had big roles.
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Linebacker TJ Quinn led the team in tackles that game. Receiver Chris Bell was in the starting lineup and had one catch. Cornerback D’Angelo Hutchinson and linebacker Antonio Watts also made contributions.
While the players don’t have experience to pull from, Brohm does.
(It should be noted, Brohm lost his only other game against a top-five team in the 2022 Big Ten championship game against No. 2 Michigan.)
His wins against top-five teams have developed with the same formula of success: more than 300 yards passing and winning the turnover battle. His teams collected a combined seven turnovers while only giving up the ball twice in those wins.
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“You’ve got to play some clean football mixed in with some aggressiveness in the (game) plan and hope to execute,” Brohm said. “On any given day, anybody can win, and that shows up every week, but we’re going to definitely have to do a lot of things well in order to come out with a victory.”
It seems like every season Brohm has one of those scenarios where he wins a game that, on paper and in popular opinion, he has no business pulling out.
His first season at U of L, it was the 33-20 dominant win against No. 10 Notre Dame.
Last season, it was traveling to No. 11 Clemson, where the Cards had never won before in program history, and engineering a convincing 33-21 victory.
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Could Friday be the night Brohm’s game-planning shines through? Maybe so.
Because in the same way that he’s earned a reputation for picking off highly ranked teams, Miami coach Mario Cristobal has become synonymous for losing at least one game annually that he gifted to his opponent.
Last season for the Canes, it was the loss at Syracuse. Miami held a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, and it was the game that would have clinched it a spot in the ACC championship game.
Cristobal and the Canes had to watch Orange coach Fran Brown go viral with his clip congratulating Dabo Swinney for moving Clemson into the league title game.
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The loss Cristobal can’t seem to shake off came in 2023: Instead of having his quarterback take a knee to run out the clock against Georgia Tech, he kept running the ball. Don Chaney, who transferred and played for U of L last season, fumbled the ball with less than 30 seconds left.
The Yellow Jackets went 74 yards in 24 seconds and won the game on a 44-yard touchdown pass.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking Miami can’t be beat on Friday night. Don’t make the mistake of thinking Brohm isn’t the coach and Louisville isn’t the school that can do it.
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville football’s Jeff Brohm has knack for upsetting top-5 teams
