Louisville Cardinals (12-4, 2-2) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (14-2, 3-1)
Game Time: 7 p.m.
Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky.
Television: ESPN2
Announcers: Dave O’Brien (play-by-play) and Cory Alexander (analysis)
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Favorite: Louisville by 3.5
Series: Virginia leads, 24-7
Last Meeting: Louisville won 81-67 on Jan. 18, 2025 in Louisville
Series History:
Projected Starting Lineups:
Louisville
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G Adrian Wooley (6-4, 200, So.)
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G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
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G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
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F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
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C Sananda Fru (6-11, 245, Jr.)
Virginia
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G Dallin Hall (6-4, 197, Sr.)
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G Malik Thomas (6-5, 215, Sr)
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G Sam Lewis (6-7, 210, Jr.)
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F Thijs De Ridder (6-9, 238, Fr.)
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C Johann Grunloh (7-0, 238, Fr.)
Injury Reports:
Statistics:
Virginia’s Season to Date:
Relevant Videos:
About Virginia:
At the midway point of the regular season, the second highest-ranked team in the ACC according to every predictive metric in existence isn’t Louisville. It isn’t North Carolina or NC State either.
That distinction belongs to the Virginia Cavaliers, who are enjoying a strong return to prominence in their first season under new head coach Ryan Odom. UVA enters Tuesday night’s top 20 showdown with Louisville owning a 14-2 overall record, with their only losses coming on a neutral floor against Butler (80-73) and in a triple overtime road loss to arch-rival Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve.
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The Cavaliers are talented, exciting, and — for the first time in a couple decades — driven by their offense.
Long gone are the stall ball/pack line days of former head coach Tony Bennett and last season’s interim head coach Ron Sanchez. While UVA still doesn’t play at a breakneck pace, they’ve already scored 80 or more points in 13 games, the most by a Virginia team in a season since they accomplished the feat 13 times 2001-02. The Hoos’ current average of 85.1 ppg would be the second highest in the history of the program (89.8 ppg in 1954-55).
Virginia returned just four points from last season’s team (all from seldom-used redshirt sophomore Desmond Roberts), leaving Odom to bring in 12 newcomers — seven from the transfer portal, three from the recruiting class of 2025, and a pair from Europe.
Chief among the imports has been 6’9 freshman Thijs De Ridder (pronounced “Tess”) from Belgium. The 22-year-old is a quintessential modern big man; He’s broad, he’s skilled, he can score at all three levels, and while he’s not a freak athlete, who uses the athleticism he does have to the best of his ability. De Ridder enters Tuesday night ranked 12th in the ACC scoring (16.4 ppg) and eighth in field goal percentage (55.4%). His 6.6 rebounds per game are also the second most on UVA’s team.
Louisville will need a combination of an old school J’Vonne Hadley performance and a rapidly emerging Khani Rooths performance to slow down De Ridder.
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San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas (12.7 ppg) has made a nice transition to ACC basketball despite playing in a very different system than the one he was accustomed to at USF. At 6’5, 215-pounds, 215 pounds, Thomas uses his strength and solid frame to score effectively off the dribble from multiple levels of the floor. He’s a polished scorer capable of generating his own shot in a variety of situations, something Virginia was notably lacking last season. His shooting percentages, including from beyond the arc, are down a bit from the last two seasons, but he is a streaky scorer who can get hot and flip a game on its head in an instant.
North Dakota State transfer Jacari White hasn’t played since Dec. 20 because of a broken wrist, but he is listed as “probable” for Tuesday night’s game. Despite playing just 18.5 minutes per game, White is the team’s third leading scorer at 10.9 ppg. He’s taken 60 three-pointers so far this season and made 30 of them. I’ll let you do the math. If he’s on the perimeter, Louisville defenders need to know where White is at all times.
BYU senior transfer Dallin Hall and true freshman Chance Mallory split time running the offense at point guard. Hall, who starts, is a pass-first floor general and a capable on-ball defender. Mallory, who stands just 5’10, is a far more serious scoring threat, but a player who can be targeted a little bit more on the other end of the floor because of his size.
The 7-foot inside duo of Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso has been extremely productive for UVA so far this season. Onyenso ranks second in the ACC in blocked shots per game (2.6), while Grunloh is right behind him in third (2.5 bpg). Together, the pair is averaging better than 15 points and 11 rebounds per contest. They will be a load for Sunny Fru and Aly Khalifa to handle, although Khalifa’s ability to pull his defender away from the basket could be an area Louisville might exploit when it has the ball.
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While Virginia certainly looks different defensively, they’re still nearly as productive as their fans are used to seeing. Only two teams in college basketball are forcing their opponents to use more of the shot clock on offensive possessions, and only three teams possess a better defensive effective field goal percentage number (43.3).
As Louisville did before being hit with injuries, Virginia plays 10 guys pretty much interchangeably. A big part of this is because Odom loves full-court pressure. This would be a game where you’d love to have your superstar freshman point guard to handle that, but alas …
In the halfcourt, UVA will play aggressive man-to-man defense with the primary focus of running Louisville’s shooters off the three-point line and funneling them towards their elite shot-blockers at the rim. They’ll pressure the ball on the catch, go over every ball screen, and double the post when the situation calls for it (which against Louisville, probably won’t be very often). The Cardinals have struggled mightily against this philosophy multiple times already this season. Let’s see if they have something different in store for the Cavaliers.
Every metric says this Virginia team is for real, but outside of their 15-point road win over NC State (a team people are also still suspicious of), there aren’t wins on their resume right now that they can point to as definitive proof. They’ll be out for blood Tuesday night with a win of that caliber on the line.
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Notable:
—Louisville is coming off its first regular season sweep of Virginia, winning both games against the Hoos last January. Outside of the COVID-affected 2020-21 season, the 2025-26 season will be the first one since U of L joined the ACC that the Cardinals and Cavaliers will meet only once.
—Louisville will wear specialty “Spida” adidas uniforms for this game in collaboration with six-time NBA All-Star and former Cardinal Donovan Mitchell.
—Louisville is looking to win three consecutive games against Virginia for the first time ever.
—Virginia ranks first in the ACC in offensive rebounds (14.1), field goal percentage defense (.380) and 3-point field goal percentage defense (.288)
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—The Cavaliers rank second in the ACC in rebounds (41.9), rebound margin (+9.1) and blocks (6.5 bpg), third in 3-point percentage (36.7%) and assist/turnover ratio (1.64), fourth in scoring defense (66.8 ppg), scoring margin (+18.3) and 3-pointers (10.3) and fifth in field goal percentage (48.1%), defensive rebounds (27.8 rpg).
—Virginia is 1-9 in its last 10 games against ranked foes (0-6 in 2024-25 and 1-3 in 2023-24).
—Louisville is 4-8 against ranked opponents under head coach Pat Kelsey. The Cards are 1-3 in such games this season.
—Virginia is 10-3 all-time at the KFC Yum Center, including a pair of wins at the 2019 NCAA South Regional. They are 8-3 inside the building in games against Louisville.
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—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 2-0 in games against Virginia.
—Virginia head coach Ryan Odom will be coaching against Louisville for the first time.
—Seven different Virginia players have led the Cavaliers in scoring for a game this season.
—Louisville has had four games of at least 24 assists, the first time since 2010-11 that the program has had multiple games of 24+ assists; the Cardinals had five games of at 24+ assists that season.
—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark four times in a season for the first time since 1989-90.
—Louisville is 285-0 all-time when scoring 90 or more points at home.
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—Louisville is 39-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 0-11 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.
—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.
—Louisville is 120-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.
—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.
Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 80, Virginia 77
