The LSU Tigers are underdogs as they prepare to face Vandy, and that’s a rare statement to be made over the last five decades. Now that Vanderbilt has a good quarterback, a talented coach, and NIL backing, they’ve become a legitimate top-20 team. The winner of this week’s matchup not only changes the narrative but also catapults into the College Football Playoff race.
Oddsmakers and statisticians aren’t buying that LSU can pull it off, though. The Tigers’ offense has been struggling without a healthy Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback and a more established offensive line. Last week was a little better against South Carolina, but the run game spurred most of their success. LSU’s defense remains the strength of the program.
Here’s where LSU’s postseason odds lie entering this tough week.
LSU College Football Playoff odds plummet below surprising teams
LSU is hovering around that 12th spot in our latest top 25 polls, and oddsmakers are seeing similar projections. They sit 13th with a 32% chance of making the playoffs, but who they trail is surprising. The SEC threat is behind Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas.
However, Memphis and BYU are also above LSU, and South Florida and USC are right behind them. While the numbers game means that one Group of 5 team will almost surely get in over the sixth SEC option, seeing Texas above LSU is wild. Texas has looked worse than LSU all season and already has two losses.
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But in this new age of college football and a longer schedule, it’s likely that most participants will have multiple losses. The stakes are so high, and NIL transfers have evened out rosters more than ever. With more conference games and higher-caliber teams entering the fray all of the time, the margin for error is simultaneously higher, but also more difficult to parse if more teams reach three losses.
We’ll see if LSU can avoid that fate and power through the second half of the year with no more than one more loss.
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This story was originally reported by A to Z Sports on Oct 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
