March Madness bracket predictions 1.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament

March Madness bracket predictions 1.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Florida won the national championship last season with an offense that ranked fifth in the nation at 84.8 points per game.

Three of the four No. 1 seeds in Sporting News first men’s bracketology for the 2025-26 Men’s Basketball Tournament are above that pace heading into the first week of February.

Arizona averages 89.5 points per game under coach Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats are our top overall seed, followed closely by Michigan, which averages 90.5 points per game under second-year coach Dusty May.

Duke averages 85 points per game under Jon Scheyer. UConn – our last No. 1 seed – averages 79 points per game – but the Huskies have a top-10 scoring defense at 64 points per game.

Those are the four best teams in our rankings, but it’s still a wide-open field. Texas, Ohio State, New Mexico and Seton Hall are our last four teams in the field. USC, Santa Clara, Virginia Tech and Missouri are our first four teams out.

This year’s Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Who is our Field of 68? Here is a closer look:

* – Projected automatic bid
** – Last four in

NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections

No. 1 Seeds

*Arizona (22-0, 9-0 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 2, Net 3. The Wildcats are 9-0 in Quad 1 and have yet to lose. Freshman Koa Peat averages 14.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. The Wildcats play Oklahoma State on Saturday.

*Michigan (20-1, 10-1 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 1, Net 1. The Wolverines are scoring 90.5 points per game and piled up a pair of huge victories against Nebraska and Michigan State last week. Eight players average at least seven points per game. Michigan plays Penn State before a trip to rival Ohio State on Sunday.

*Duke (20-1, 9-0 ACC)

Resume: KenPom: 3, Net: 2. Duke plays Boston College on Tuesday before the first matchup with North Carolina at the Dean Smith Center on Saturday. The Blue Devils are playing great defense – they’ve allowed less than 70 points in their last five games.

*UConn (21-1, 11-0 Big East)

Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 6. The Huskies’ only loss this season was on Nov. 19 against Arizona. Five UConn players average double-figures – led by junior guard Solomon Ball at 14.6 points per game. The Huskies are at St. John’s on Friday.

No. 2 Seeds

Iowa State (20-2, 7-2 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 5. Forward Milan Momcilovic – who averages 18.6 points per game– leads the nation in three-point percentage at 54.0%. The Cyclones are 5-1 against Quad 1 – which is the same record as UConn.

Illinois (19-3, 10-1 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 8. Keaton Wagler averages 18.2 points per game for the Illini, which stayed on this line after an impressive 78-69 victory at Nebraska on Sunday. Illinois is 7-3 against Quad 1.

Houston (19-2, 7-1 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 9. Kelvin Sampson is winning with a familiar formula. The Cougars rank second in Division I in scoring defense (61.7 points per game). Houston travels to BYU on Saturday.

Michigan State (19-3, 9-2 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 19, Net: 18. The 83-71 loss to Michigan on Jan. 30 was a set-back, but there is a chance for the Spartans to bounce back this week against Minnesota and Illinois. Guard Jeremy Fears Jr. ranks second in the nation with 8.8 assists per game.

No. 3 Seeds

*Florida (16-6, 7-2 SEC)

Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 12. The Gators are the highest-seeded SEC team, and Florida turned up the scoring in a 95-48 victory against South Carolina and 100-77 victory against Alabama last week. The Gators play at Texas A&M on Saturday.

Gonzaga (22-1, 10-0 West Coast)

Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 4. Graham Ike (18.7 ppg.) and Braden Huff (17.8 ppg.) form an imposing front line for the Bulldogs, who average 88.2 points per game. Gonzaga plays four of its next five games on the road.

Nebraska (20-2, 9-2 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 7. The Huskers slide down a line after losses to Michigan and Illinois. The Huskers will get their next chance at an elite Big Ten team on Feb. 10 against Purdue, which comes after Saturday’s road trip to Rutgers.

Kansas (16-5, 6-2 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 14, Net 14. Kansas has won five in a row, and that includes victories against Iowa State and BYU ahead of Monday’s game against Texas Tech. Freshman Darryn Peterson averages 21.3 points per game.

MORE: NBA experts compare Darryn Peterson to Kobe Bryant

No. 4 seeds

BYU (17-4, 5-3 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 15, Net 15. BYU lost to Arizona and Kansas. Freshman forward AJ Dybantsa averaged 20.5 points in those games. BYU is 4-4 against Quad 1. Kansas is 5-5. That separates the seeding lines for now.

Purdue (18-4, 8-3 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 10. Purdue senior Braden Smith averages 15.3 points and 8.9 assists for the Boilermakers, who have lost three of four games ahead of Saturday’s matchup with Oregon.

Vanderbilt (17-3, 4-3 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 13, Net 13. Vanderbilt has won three in a row and does not have a team that is currently ranked left on the regular-season schedule. The Commodores do not have a loss outside of Quad 1.

Virginia (18-3, 7-2 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 18, Net 18. Get to know freshman forward Thijs De Ridder, a Belgian forward who averages 17.0 points and 6.3 rebounds. He had a career-high 32 points against Notre Dame on Jan. 27. Virginia stays home against Pitt and Syracuse this week.

Charles Bediako

No. 5 seeds

Texas Tech (16-5, 6-2)

Resume: KenPom 21, Net 19. An 88-80 loss at UCF on Saturday broke a five-game winning streak for the Red Raiders. Were they peaking ahead to Monday’s matchup against Kansas?

St. John’s (16-5, 9-1 Big East)

Resume: KenPom 20, Net 23. The Red Storm have won seven in a row under coach Rick Pitino and face DePaul on Tuesday before a huge Friday night matchup against UConn. St. John’s is 2-4 against Quad 1 opponents.

Alabama (14-7, 4-4 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 16, Net 20. The Crimson Tide are 3-4 in their last seven games. Former G-League player Charles Bediako averages 11.0 points and 5.3 rebounds in the last three games. Alabama faces Texas A&M on Wednesday.

MORE: Why Charles Bediako has been allowed to return to Alabama

Louisville (15-6, 5-4 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 17, Net 17. Is this too high for the Cardinals? Louisville is 3-5 in Quad 1 under second-year coach Pat Kelsey. Louisville is 2-5 in games against top-25 teams.

No. 6 seeds

Tennessee (15-6, 5-3 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 19, Net 21. Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament both average 18.6 points per game for the Volunteers, who have knocked off Alabama, Georgia and Auburn in their last three games. The Vols can stay hot against Ole Miss and Kentucky this week.

North Carolina (17-4, 5-3 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 29, Net 25. The Tar Heels can make a statement against Duke on Saturday. Caleb Wilson averaged 21.3 points in victories against Georgia Tech, Virginia and Notre Dame.

Arkansas (16-6, 6-3 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 24, Net 24. The Razorbacks average 88.7 points per game under John Calipari. An 85-77 loss to Kentucky hurt, but this is still the right line. The Razorbacks do not have a loss outside of Quad 1.

Clemson (18-4, 8-1 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 31, Net 31. The Tigers are 2-3 against Quad 1 opponents. Clemson’s only ACC loss was an 80-76 overtime game against NC State on Jan. 20. The Tigers have a West Coast swing at Stanford and Cal this week.

No. 7 seeds

Saint Louis (21-1, 9-0 Atlantic 10)

Resume: KenPom 25, Net 16. The Billikins have been amazing with Indiana State transfer Robbie Avila, who averages 12.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and four assists. We might get “Cream Abdul-Jabbar“in the tournament, after all.

Texas A&M (17-4, 7-1 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 27, Net 35. The Aggies are 3-3 against Quad 1 teams under first-year coach Bucky McMillan, and they’ll get a pair of tests against ranked teams with Florida and Alabama this week. It’s a big week for Texas A&M.

Kentucky (15-7, 6-3 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 30, Net 28. The Wildcats bounced back from an 80-55 loss to Vanderbilt with an 85-77 victory at Arkansas. It’s been an up-and-down season for second-year coach Mark Pope – but the Wildcats have won six of their last seven games and are 5-6 in Quad 1.

Villanova (16-5, 7-3 Big East)

Resume: KenPom 28, Net 33. First-year coach Kevin Willard has the Wildcats back in the Big East mix. Villanova has a 3-4 record against Quad 1. Villanova can improve its standing against Seton Hall on Wednesday.

No. 8 seeds

Iowa (16-5, 6-4 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 22, Net 22. Bennett Stirtz averages 19.0 points per game for the Hawkeyes, who have a 1-4 record against Quad 1. The Hawkeyes have won four straight games in Big Ten play ahead of a road game at Washington on Wednesday.

Auburn (14-8, 5-4 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 26, Net 30. First-year coach Steven Pearl is keeping the Tigers in the tournament mix. Guard Keyshawn Hall averaged 25.3 points in a three-game stretch against Florida, Texas and Tennessee.

NC State (16-6, 7-2 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 23, Net 26. Will Wade has led an impressive first season with the Wolfpack. Four NC State players average double digits, led by Quadir Copeland (14.0 ppg.). NC State has won four straight games.

*Utah State (18-3, 9-2 Mountain West)

Resume: KenPom 32, Net 27. The Aggies are one of three Mountain West Conference teams in the field as of now. Utah State beat San Diego State 71-66 on Jan. 31.

Rest of the field …

No. 9 seeds

Saint Mary’s (19-4, 8-2 West Coast)

Resume: KenPom 35, Net 32.

SMU (15-6, 4-4 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 34, Net 36.

UCF (17-4, 6-3 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 45, Net 37.

Wisconsin (16-6, 8-3 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 37, Net 41.

No. 10 seeds

Georgia (16-6, 4-5 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 40, Net 36.

Miami, Fla. (17-5, 6-3 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 39, Net 39.

San Diego State (15-6, 9-2 MWC)

Resume: KenPom 43, Net 45.

UCLA (15-7, 7-4 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 38, Net 44.

No. 11 seeds

*Miami, Ohio (22-0, 10-0 MAC)

Resume: KenPom: 90, Net: 54.

MORE: Travis Steele has RedHawks flying high in MAC

Indiana (15-7, 6-5 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 33 Net 29.

**Texas (13-9, 4-5 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 34, Net 38.

**Ohio State (14-7, 6-5 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 42, Net 40.

**New Mexico (18-4, 9-2 MWC)

Resume: KenPom 44, Net 42.

**Seton Hall (16-6, 6-5 Big East)

Resume: KenPom 50, Net 49.

No. 12 seeds

*Tulsa (19-3, 7-2 American)

Resume: KenPom: 56, Net: 48.

*Belmont (20-3, 10-2 MVC)

Resume: KenPom 58, Net: 58.

*Yale (16-4, 5-2 Ivy)

Resume: KenPom: 74, Net: 63.

*Liberty (18-3, 10-0 Conference USA)

Resume: KenPom: 86, Net: 74.

No. 13 seeds

*Stephen F. Austin (19-3, 12-1 Southland)

Resume: Net: 91, KenPom: 83.

*Utah Valley (16-6, 6-3 WAC)

Resume: KenPom: 92, Net: 90.

*UNC-Wilmington (19-3, 8-1 CAA)

Resume: KenPom: 113, Net: 98.

*North Dakota State (19-5, 9-0 Summit)

Resume: KenPom: 125, Net: 118.

No. 14 seeds

*UC-Irvine (15-7, 8-2 Big West)

Resume: KenPom: 115, Net: 115.

*Winthrop (16-8, 8-1 Big South)

Resume: KenPom: 117, Net: 116.

*ETSU (16-7, 8-2 Southern)

Resume: KenPom: 136, Net: 129.

*Wright State (14-8, 9-2 Horizon)

Resume: KenPom: 138, Net: 128.

No. 15 seeds

*Troy (15-8, 8-3 Sun Belt)

Resume: KenPom: 145, Net: 138.

*Portland State (14-6, 8-1 Big Sky)

Resume: KenPom: 150, Net: 135.

*Austin Peay (15-6, 9-1 Atlantic Sun)

Resume: KenPom: 165, Net: 150.

*Navy (17-6, 9-1 Patriot)

Resume: KenPom: 171, Net: 170.

No. 16 seeds

*UT-Martin (17-5, 9-2 OVC)

Resume: KenPom: 192, Net: 167.

*Long Island (14-8, 8-1 Northeast)

Resume: KenPom: 192, Net: 183.

**Vermont (14-9, 6-2 America East)

Resume: KenPom: 220, Net: 213.

**Merrimack (14-9, 10-2 MAAC)

Resume: KenPom: 208, Net: 214.

**Bethune-Cookman (10-11, 7-1 SWAC)

Resume: KenPom: 232, Net: 244.

**Maryland Eastern-Shore (8-14, 4-1 MEAC)

Resume: KenPom: 335, Net: 336.

Bubble watch

USC (16-6, 5-6 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 52, Net 50. The Trojans are 2-4 in Quad 1, but they do not have a loss in Quads 3-4. A home game against Indiana on Tuesday is a key bubble game.

Santa Clara (19-5, 10-1 West Coast)

Resume: KenPom 41, Net 43. Can the West Coast Conference push a third team in the field with long-time coach Herb Sendek? The Broncos have road games at Pacific and Washington State this week.

Virginia Tech (16-7, 5-5 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 60, Net 56. The Hokies can improve their chances with a win at NC State on Saturday and can push to be the ninth ACC team in the field.

Missouri (15-7, 5-4 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 61, Net 72. Missouri has a winning record in the SEC, but an 0-3 record in Quad 2 is dragging the Tigers’ rankings down. Missouri only has three ranked teams left on the schedule.

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